Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z The only change to the outlook was to introduce an Elevated area across parts of northeastern NM east-northeastward into the northwestern TX Panhandle -- where precipitation has generally been limited over the last 15-30 days. Despite increasing mid/high-level clouds, strengthening westerly flow aloft and related downslope warming/drying will favor a corridor of 15-20 percent RH during the afternoon. These dry boundary-layer conditions, coupled with 15-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph), will favor elevated to locally critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather concerns are possible across parts of the southern High Plains on Monday. Increasing mid to upper-level flow over the Rockies will yield a deepening lee trough along the central and southern High Plains. Westerly downslope winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph from southern CO into northeast NM. Modest dry air advection coupled with downslope warming/drying will likely yield elevated fire weather conditions across this region. Despite reasonable confidence in 15+ mph winds and 15-25% RH, the overlap with receptive fuels is uncertain given recent precipitation and ERCs near to below seasonal average. Highlights may be introduced in subsequent outlooks based on fuel trends across portions of northeast NM, where 14-day rainfall has been minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 27 18:27:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1974 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UPPER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1974 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Areas affected...Upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271719Z - 271915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging winds will be possible in parts of the upper Ohio Valley region this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Shallow convection has very slowly deepened along the cold front in southeast Ohio to near West Virginia border. A small region of mid 50s F dewpoints within this region is supporting 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE. Regional VAD profiles show 40-60 kts of flow within the lowest 2 km. Though convection will likely remain shallow and produce little lightning, isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible as surface heating continues this afternoon. Within the last hour, a gust of 37 kts was observed near Chillicothe, OH and 47 kts was observed at Huntington, WV. Given the low-level inversions present on the 12Z observed ILM/PBZ soundings, low-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep even with more heating. The shallow convection will likely be the primary mechanism for stronger gusts this afternoon. ..Wendt/Hart.. 11/27/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...ILN... LAT...LON 39818266 40428121 40717986 40387904 39897887 38758039 38378185 38558251 38808270 39818266 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is forecast to strengthen across the south-central High Plains on Monday, as a mid/upper-level trough deepens over the western/central CONUS. Most of the CONUS is expected to remain dry/stable through the day, though richer low-level moisture will begin returning to parts of TX/LA by early Tuesday morning, in conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet. Isolated lightning flashes cannot be entirely ruled out from Oregon into parts of the northern Great Basin, in association with a notable shortwave trough and mid/upper-level jet maximum moving southeastward out of the Pacific Northwest, but very meager buoyancy is expected to limit thunderstorm coverage. Elevated buoyancy will increase across parts of TX/LA late in the period as low-level moisture returns, but it currently appears that capping will remain sufficient to suppress deep convection through 12Z Tuesday. ..Dean.. 11/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Latest surface analysis shows a deep low over IL/IN, with an occluded front extending across OH then southward into the central Appalachians. A pre-frontal trough is developing over central NC. This trough may be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Recent VADs and 12z CAM solutions show an intense mesoscale low-level jet (60-70 knots at 850mb) over central SC. This feature is associated with an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms east of CLT. As the wind max tracks northeastward, several model solutions suggest the potential for development of a few discrete storms over eastern NC and extreme southeast VA. It is unclear how much destabilization can occur prior to arrival of convection, which limits confidence in the severe threat. Therefore will maintain ongoing MRGL risk and low tornado probabilities. However, very strong shear profiles and weak-but-perhaps-sufficient CAPE could result isolated supercells and a tornado or two before activity moves offshore. ...Northern WV/southwest PA... The cold front over OH/KY is expected to surge northeastward this afternoon across northern WV and southwest PA. Forecast soundings in this area show very weak CAPE, but strong winds aloft and strong forcing. There remains some potential for a small fast-moving bowing line of shallow convection posing a risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area to cover this concern. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/27/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes/additions were needed with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the CONUS. A weakening upper low over the lower OH River Valley will continue to eject to the northeast through the day with a trailing cold front pushing east across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. To the west, flow aloft will gradually increase over the central/northern Rockies, as a wave approaching the Pacific Northwest deepens over the next 48 hours. This will support lee troughing along the central/northern High Plains, inducing strong downslope flow across central MT to southeast WY in the process. A few pockets of elevated fire weather conditions are possible in the lee of terrain features, but the overlap of elevated wind/RH and receptive fuels will likely remain too limited for highlights. Locally elevated conditions are also possible across the Big Bend region in southwest TX as winds increase ahead of a cold front. However, fuels across this region will likely not support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 26 17:55:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 26 17:55:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A closed upper-low currently in the southern Plains will become more of an open wave on Saturday before quickly accelerating through the Mid-South and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by late Sunday. A surface low is also expected to follow a similar track. Associated with this surface low, a cold front will progress through the Southeast Sunday morning into the afternoon. A secondary cold front will be present in the upper Midwest, moving eastward into the lower/middle Ohio Valley by later afternoon. ...Parts of Southeast into the Carolinas... Ongoing storms and precipitation along and ahead of the cold front are expected at the beginning of the period. This activity should serve to subdue diurnal heating and limit the development of more substantial buoyancy during the day. With mid-level ascent moving quickly to the northeast, potential for severe thunderstorms in parts of Georgia and north Florida will likely be limited. With slightly greater mid-level ascent, storm coverage in the Carolinas will likely be greater than areas to the south and west. Strong wind fields will be in place ahead of the cold front. Some conditional potential would exist for a strong/damaging wind gust and perhaps a brief tornado. However, the poor thermodynamics expected increases doubt as to the coverage of truly surface-based storms. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Precipitation is also expected to be ongoing early in the period. Model soundings do indicate some clearing is possible just ahead of the shortwave trough that will pass during the early/mid afternoon. Some moisture return ahead of the front may support some very low-topped convection. Due to the strong wind fields at low levels, some risk for a strong/damaging wind gusts will exist with this activity. However, confidence in sustained, stronger activity is low. ..Wendt.. 11/26/2022 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track, and no changes/additions were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited Sunday across much of the CONUS. As the upper low over the southern Plains ejects across the OH River Valley region on Sunday, enhanced flow associated with the approach of a broad trough across the West will overspread the northern and central Rockies. A deepening lee trough along the High Plains will foster strong downslope winds from southern MT to southeast WY. Some pockets of downslope warming/drying may be sufficient to yield periods of elevated fire weather conditions. However, the spatial extent of these conditions remains uncertain as does the overlap with receptive fuels across the central Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes/additions were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low for today for much of the CONUS. Localized concerns may emerge across portions of the central Plains and southern California. ...Central Plains... Early-morning surface observations show a cold front beginning to move into parts of MT/ND. This front will continue to the southeast over the next 24 hours, resulting in breezy northwest winds across much of southern SD and NE where fuels are dry (ERCs in the 80-90th percentile range). Cool post-frontal air will limit overall RH reductions, but some areas may experience periods of 15-20 mph winds (gusting to 25 mph) with RH values between 20-25%. However, confidence in the duration/coverage of such conditions remains limited. ...Southern California... Poor overnight RH recoveries (RH values in the teens) are noted along the southern CA coast and interior terrain with a weak offshore flow regime in place. The development of a weak inland thermal low should favor weak onshore flow by this afternoon, but warm temperatures will maintain low RH. Pockets of elevated conditions will be possible for areas with terrain-enhanced winds as afternoon RH values fall into the teens and low 20s. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... There is a risk of a tornado or two and locally damaging winds this afternoon through early tonight from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. ...Central Gulf Coast... A deep upper low is moving slowly eastward across TX today, with the primary surface low just off the coast of southeast TX. A warm front extends eastward from the low just south of the LA coast. Continued strong southerly low-level winds will help the warm front to move slowly northward today, allowing a very moist air mass to spread into the Delta region of southeast LA and coastal counties of MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. A persistent line of thunderstorms currently extending from the LCH area southward into the Gulf is moving slowly eastward. Several supercell structures have been noted with this line overnight and this morning, and the potential for rotating activity will continue through the afternoon and evening. Low-level shear profiles are quite strong, especially in vicinity of the surface warm front. Most of the severe threat should remain offshore. However, CAM guidance suggests a narrow zone where surface-based supercells and an attendant risk of tornadoes/damaging wind gusts may threaten coastal counties/parishes this afternoon through early tonight. Therefore have added a SLGT risk for this area. ..Hart/Bunting.. 11/26/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 25 17:59:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 25 17:59:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday from far southeast Texas to parts of the the central Gulf Coast states. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado should be the main threats. ...Far Southeast Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... A vigorous closed upper low will translate east-northeastward from the southern High Plains to the mid MS Valley on Saturday. A strong (70-90 kt) mid-level jet will accompany this upper low. At the surface, a low over east TX Saturday morning should develop east-northeastward in tandem with the upper low. Rich low-level moisture will attempt to advance inland as a surface warm front lifts northward over the central Gulf Coast states. A cold front attendant to the surface low will sweep eastward across this region through the period. Poor lapse rates and limited daytime heating are expected to generally hinder the development of much instability through the day. Still, some potential for surface-based convection remains evident, especially where upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints are present. Currently, this appears most likely across southern LA/MS/AL and into parts of the FL Panhandle. The best forcing for ascent aloft associated with the upper low and mid-level jet is forecast to generally remain displaced to the north of this area, towards the mid MS Valley. But, sufficiently strong deep-layer shear should be present to support organized updrafts, including the potential for a couple of low-topped supercells. The strongest portion of a southerly low-level jet should also be mostly displaced to the north of the surface warm sector. Even so, enough low-level shear should exist for some low-level updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two. Isolated damaging winds may also occur as convection spreads eastward across the central Gulf Coast states through Saturday night. Given that instability is forecast to remain rather weak, have maintained the Marginal Risk with some expansion. ..Gleason.. 11/25/2022 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 11/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the OH Valley tomorrow/Saturday, encouraging the deepening of a surface low as it crosses the MS River toward the end of the period. Across most of the CONUS, cool or wet low-level conditions will limit significant fire-spread concerns. The one small exception may be the central High Plains, where strong, dry northwesterly flow will wrap around the developing low. However, fuels across the central High Plains are modest at best for supporting wildfire spread, so fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Latest surface observations across southern CA indicate ongoing dry/gusty conditions across the mountains and valleys of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties this morning. However, surface winds will continue subsiding into the late morning hours as the pressure gradient and upper-level support weaken. While low RH will linger away from the coast into the overnight hours, the weakening surface winds should generally limit the fire-weather threat compared to previous days. ..Weinman.. 11/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... While an upper trough assists in the development of a surface low across the south-central U.S. today, surface high pressure will promote either cool or calm surface conditions across the rest of the CONUS, limiting widespread significant wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur tonight near parts of the Texas Coast. ...Texas Coast... A large upper low is currently centered near El Paso, with strong westerly flow aloft extending across northern Mexico. At the surface, a weak low is analyzed just off the coast of south TX, with a warm front extending eastward into the Gulf. Continued low-level warm advection and lift will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms today near and north of the warm front - spreading inland through the day. Thunderstorms that form in this regime will be elevated with minimal risk of severe weather. Later tonight, the surface low is forecast to be very near the coastline with the warm front lifting northward to the immediate coast as well. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will rotate around the base of the low and approach south TX. This should result in increasing coverage and intensity of thunderstorms after midnight. Those storms near the low/warm front will potentially be surface-based and in a region of strong low-level shear. A few transient supercells may occur with a marginal risk of a tornado or severe wind gusts. ..Hart/Wendt.. 11/25/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 24 17:48:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 24 17:48:01 UTC 2022.