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2 years 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no
changes/additions were made with this update. Locally elevated
conditions are possible over southeast CO, northeast NM, and
southwest KS during peak heating. However, these conditions appear
too marginal/localized for Elevated highlights at this time. With
that said, downslope warming/drying will continue to precondition
fine fuels for a potential critical fire-weather event on Day
3/Friday.
..Weinman.. 11/30/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will rapidly traverse the Intermountain West
tomorrow/Thursday, encouraging the deepening of a surface low and
associated strong southerly low-level flow over the Plains. Modestly
dry conditions may accompany the stronger southerly flow. However,
several guidance members struggle to show RH dipping below 25
percent by afternoon peak heating. When also taking mediocre fuel
status into account, fire weather highlights have been withheld.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Synopsis...
One amplified mid/upper-level trough will move eastward from the Mid
Atlantic/New England to the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday, while
another mid/upper-level trough will move into and across the western
CONUS through the period. A large surface ridge will persist from
the south-central into the eastern CONUS, while a surface cyclone
will move from the interior Northwest into the northern High Plains.
Generally dry and stable conditions will dominate over most of the
CONUS through the period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible
across parts of south FL, within a moist and moderately unstable
environment. Cold midlevel temperatures will support weak convection
capable of sporadic lightning flashes near the OR and northern CA
coasts. Some weak elevated convection will be possible across parts
of the southern Plains into the Ozarks within a warm advection
regime, but midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy appear too weak to
support thunderstorm development. Weak convection will also be
possible across parts of the Great Basin in association with the
mid/upper-level trough passing through the region, though lightning
potential appears limited at this time.
..Dean.. 11/30/2022
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022
Valid 301630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible for another
hour or two within the Florida Big Bend region and parts of
southeast Georgia.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough is centered over the northern Great Lakes
this morning. This feature will continue north and east through the
day. At the surface, a cold front continues to move through the
Southeast. Some pre-frontal convection continues in far southeast
Georgia into north Florida.
Convection from the Florida Big Bend into southeast Georgia will
have decreasing mid-level support with time as well as encounter
more stable air in northern/central Florida. A marginal threat for a
damaging wind gust and brief, weak tornado may continue for another
hour or two. For additional mesoscale details, see MCD 1993.
..Wendt.. 11/30/2022
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2022
Valid 301700Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes/additions were needed
with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below.
..Weinman.. 11/30/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022/
...Synopsis...
An upper trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second upper
trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest today. In between both
upper troughs, surface high pressure and associated cold
temperatures will sweep across much of the CONUS, limiting
significant wildfire-spread potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0572 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
WW 572 TORNADO AR LA MS 291810Z - 300100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 572
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Arkansas
Northern and Central Louisiana
Central Mississippi
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until
700 PM CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* Primary threats include...
Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to develop this afternoon and
track northeastward across much of northeast Louisiana and central
Mississippi. Parameters appear favorable for strong and
long-tracked tornadoes this afternoon and early evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
north and south of a line from 25 miles north of Fort Polk LA to 55
miles south of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Hart
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
MD 1978 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN LA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1978
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Areas affected...northern LA...extreme southeast Arkansas and into
central MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 291720Z - 291945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A PDS tornado watch will be needed by 19z/1pm CT for
portions of northern Louisiana, extreme southeast Arkansas and into
central Mississippi. Tornadoes, a couple potentially long-track and
strong, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible into the
evening hours.
DISCUSSION...Rich Gulf boundary-layer moisture continues to rapidly
return northward across the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Surface
dewpoints near 65 F have developed as far north as south-central MS
and northern LA late this morning. Meanwhile, the marine warm front,
roughly delineating 70 F dewpoints, extends west-to east from
southeast TX through central LA into southern MS. Moisture should
continue to rapidly increase across northern LA into far southeast
AR and MS through the afternoon. A plume of steep midlevel lapse
rates will continue to overspread the region, aiding in MLCAPE
increasing to 1000-2000 J/kg by mid-afternoon. Breaks in cloud cover
across northeast LA into central MS will further aid in
destabilization as greater heating occurs within these cloud breaks.
Strong vertical shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater than
45 kt is already in place across the region. Regional VWPs and
profilers already show enlarged, favorably curved low-level
hodographs with 0-1 km SRH values greater than 250 m2/s. Large-scale
ascent will remain modest across the region, resulting in a large
warm sector supporting discrete supercells. One or more bands of
supercells will be possible within low-level confluence zones.
A particular dangerous situation is expected to develop across
northeast LA into central MS through this evening as multiple
supercells track across the area. Tornadoes, a couple strong and
long-track, will be possible, in addition to large hail (scattered
2+ inch) and damaging gusts.
..Leitman/Hart.. 11/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31979322 32349307 32839272 33529153 33769082 33869032
33888967 33648891 33408865 32828846 32448861 32038886
31728928 31628956 31509045 31369186 31379278 31599318
31979322
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds and a tornado or two
will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Wednesday, with
the primary threat expected during the morning hours.
...Southeast...
Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday
morning, from near the mouth of the Mississippi River northeastward
into parts of GA/SC. Initially strong low-level shear and sufficient
buoyancy will support a threat of locally damaging gusts and a brief
tornado or two with these storms during the morning hours. A gradual
weakening trend is expected with time as the stronger large-scale
ascent moves northeastward away from the region, and deep-layer
flow/shear gradually weakens. Some threat for locally strong gusts
could persist into the early afternoon across parts of southwest GA
and the FL Peninsula, before convection diminishes across north FL.
...Northeast/New England...
The strong and progressive mid/upper-level trough initially over the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will move eastward into New England by
Wednesday evening. A strong cold front will move through Mid
Atlantic and Northeast through the day, with very modest low-level
moisture return expected along/ahead of the front. Increasing
moisture and favorable low-level convergence and large-scale ascent
may support development of a somewhat organized frontal band within
the larger precipitation shield. Strong wind gusts could accompany
any such frontal band, but with SBCAPE currently forecast to be
negligible across the region, the potential for convectively
enhanced gusts appears too limited for wind probabilities at this
time.
..Dean.. 11/29/2022
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
MD 1977 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHERN ALABAMA...FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...northern Alabama...far
southern Middle Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 291656Z - 291900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail will be possible with elevated
storms early this afternoon. No watch is expected for this activity.
More intense activity is expected later this afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...As moisture rapidly returns north and east, a few
elevated storms have developed along the leading edge. Current storm
motions may keep this activity at least loosely tied to modest
elevated instability. Given the strongly sheared environment, some
potential for marginally severe hail will exist with the more
intense storms as they move northeast. It does not appear likely
that enough downstream destabilization will occur to support
surface-based updrafts. With that said, strong/damaging wind gust
potential is low.
No watch is anticipated for this activity. Stronger storms are
expected to impact some of these same areas later in the afternoon
and evening.
..Wendt/Hart.. 11/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
LAT...LON 34368716 34068856 33998949 34098975 34318995 34778970
35148907 35478680 35438612 34908603 34368716
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2022
...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley this afternoon and tonight...
* LOCATIONS...
Central and northern Mississippi
Northern Alabama
Northeast Louisiana
Southeast Arkansas
Southern Tennessee
* HAZARDS...
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Scattered large hail, some baseball size
Scattered damaging winds
* SUMMARY...
Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are
forecast this afternoon into the overnight period across parts
of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and parts of
the Southeast.
Preparedness actions...
Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
&&
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The forecast remains on track, and no changes were needed with this
update. For details, see the previous discussion below.
..Weinman.. 11/29/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2022/
...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will follow the mid-level trough from Day 1, which is
poised to move offshore during the Day 2/Wednesday period. Behind a
surface cold front, high pressure and associated cooler temperatures
will overspread much of the CONUS, limiting concerns for widespread,
significant wildfire-spread potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Valid 291700Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same,
therefore, no changes/additions were made with this update.
..Weinman.. 11/29/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2022/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the Plains states while a surface
cyclone will intensify and surge northeast towards the Great Lakes
today. A surface cold front will sweep southeastward across the
central Plains, with a dryline also surging eastward across far
eastern New Mexico into western Texas during the afternoon. Dry and
windy conditions are expected in the post-dryline environment.
However, several guidance members still struggle to show RH dropping
below 20 percent across the southern High Plains. When also
factoring in fuels that are marginally receptive (at best) to fire
spread, fire weather highlights have been withheld.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST
ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind gusts are
forecast this afternoon into the overnight period across parts of
the lower to mid Mississippi Valley, Mid-South and parts of the
Southeast.
...Regional Outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is
forecast today and tonight for parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley...
...Lower MS Valley...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over much of
the CONUS this morning, with several fast moving shortwave troughs
moving across the southwest into the southern Plains. Strong
southerly low-level winds have developed across the lower MS Valley,
aiding in the rapid return of rich Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the
mid/upper 60s have spread into much of east TX and LA, and should
extend into central MS by mid-afternoon. Plentiful low clouds are
present, limiting daytime heating. But relatively steep mid-level
lapse rates and returning moisture will lead to widespread MLCAPE
values of 1000-1500 J/kg later today, with only a weak cap.
Vertical shear profiles are very strong throughout the region, with
effective SRH values of 200-400 m2/s2 beneath 50+ knots of
deep-layer shear. Given the subtle forcing today, relatively
long-lived discrete supercell storms are expected with an attendant
threat of intense and long-track tornadoes.
Present indications are that primary thunderstorm development will
begin early this afternoon over parts of LA, spreading quickly into
MS. This corridor may see multiple waves of severe convection as
storms redevelop upstream through the evening. Along with the
strong tornado threat, very large hail and damaging wind gusts may
occur with these storms. Consideration was made to introduce a
small HIGH risk, but still too much uncertainty in the exact
corridor of highest risk since moisture is not yet in place and
there is no surface boundary to focus on.
..Hart/Wendt.. 11/29/2022
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
MD 1976 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1976
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Minnesota into northwest
Wisconsin
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 291545Z - 292145Z
SUMMARY...Areas of 1 inch per hour snow rates are possible in
eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. The
heaviest snowfall rates should occur from 12 PM to 4 PM CST.
DISCUSSION...A band of snow within the Upper Midwest has produced
generally light to moderate snowfall rates from southwestern
Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin. Recent observations within
the last hour near the Twin Cities indicate snowfall rates of 1 inch
per hour are occurring. This broad area of snow is being driven by
850-700 mb frontogenesis. Through the afternoon, the upper trough
over the northern Plains is expected to become more negatively
tilted as it progresses into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
regions. At the surface, a low currently in northwest Missouri
should track northeastward and deepen. This should act to increase
the frontogenetic forcing and lead to snowfall rates of 1 inch per
hour, particularly within locally heavier snow bands. Heavier
snowfall rates will move from southwest to northeast along with the
better low/mid-level ascent from about 12 PM to 4 PM CST.
..Wendt.. 11/29/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 45009388 46029320 46809251 47489153 47539062 47139000
46308993 45059125 44269203 43489320 43549365 44109440
45009388
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same,
therefore, no changes/additions were made with this update.
..Weinman.. 11/28/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1232 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states while a rapidly
deepening surface low ejects into the MS Valley tomorrow/Tuesday. As
this occurs, a surface cold front will sweep southeastward across
the Plains, while a dryline surges eastward across eastern New
Mexico into western Texas tomorrow afternoon. Dry and windy
conditions will accompany the post-dryline environment. These
conditions would typically necessitate at least Elevated highlights.
However, fuels remain marginally receptive (at best) to wildfire
spread, and several guidance members suggest RH will struggle to
drop below 20 percent by afternoon peak heating, precluding fire
weather highlights this outlook.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 28 18:17:02 UTC 2022.
2 years 10 months ago
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 28 18:17:02 UTC 2022.
2 years 10 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...EXTREME SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes and wind damage,
along with some hail, are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening,
extending into the overnight period across parts of the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast. A few
strong/long-track tornadoes will be possible.
...Synopsis...
A deep and progressive mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move
from the central/southern Rockies eastward Tuesday morning to parts
of the Mississippi Valley region by early Wednesday. A surface
cyclone initially over central KS will move quickly northeastward
toward the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday evening, as an attendant
cold front sweeps through the Great Plains and eventually into the
Midwest.
...Lower/mid MS Valley into the Southeast...
The potential for several long-track supercells remains evident
across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night, with a threat of strong tornadoes, scattered wind
damage, and hail.
Seasonably rich low-level moisture will quickly stream northward
across the lower/mid MS Valley region ahead of the cold front on
Tuesday, aided by a strong southwesterly low-level jet. Meanwhile,
modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region, in
advance of the deep/progressive mid/upper-level trough. This will
result in the development of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of
1500 J/kg) across the warm sector. This destabilization will be
occurring within a strongly sheared environment supportive of
organized storms, including supercells.
Initially elevated convection is expected to gradually increase in
coverage through the morning across the ArkLaTex region within a
low-level warm advection regime, with additional development
possible farther south across southern LA/MS where somewhat stronger
heating is expected. A few surface-based supercells are expected to
evolve by afternoon, which could potentially be longer-lived as they
move northeastward through a moistening and strongly sheared
environment. Favorable 0-1 km shear/SRH will support a tornado
threat, though some uncertainty remains regarding the impact of
potentially weak low-level lapse rates on the tornado potential. Any
sustained supercells within the warm sector could pose a strong
tornado threat, in addition to a risk of hail and damaging gusts.
Storm coverage will continue to increase through the evening and
overnight hours, with favorable low-level moisture and strong
low-level and deep-layer shear continuing to support a threat of all
severe hazards. Some tornado potential is likely to continue
overnight across parts of MS into western/central AL.
...Parts of the OH Valley/Midwest...
Weaker low-level moisture return is expected farther north into
parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley in advance of the cold front.
Despite weak buoyancy, favorable large-scale ascent and strong
deep-layer flow could support a threat of locally damaging gusts
with any sustained low-topped convection. There is some potential
for a damaging wind threat to spread farther north than currently
indicated, and some northward expansion of wind probabilities is
possible depending on shorter-term observational and guidance
trends.
..Dean.. 11/28/2022
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022
Valid 281700Z - 291200Z
The only change with this update was to expand the current Elevated
highlights northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO. Here,
mostly clear skies and strong downslope warming/drying should yield
15-20 percent RH this afternoon. In addition, strengthening westerly
flow aloft (55-75-kt 3-6-km flow sampled upstream by GJT 12Z
observed sounding) and a tightening pressure gradient will
contribute to 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds
(with gusts upwards of 40 mph). Given at least marginally receptive
fuels through this corridor, the expansion is warranted. Elsewhere,
the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Weinman.. 11/28/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deepen while traversing the Intermountain
West today, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated
downslope flow off of the Rockies into the southern High Plains. Dry
and breezy conditions are likely for several hours this afternoon,
with Elevated highlights introduced for portions of northeast New
Mexico into the far northwestern Texas Panhandle. Here, the 15+ mph
sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap 15-20 percent RH
and fuels that are at least marginally receptive to wildfire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
2 years 10 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2022
Valid 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A thunderstorm or two may form around daybreak over parts of east
Texas and western Louisiana.
...TX/LA...
An upper trough is forecast to deepen rapidly later today and
tonight across the southwest states, with low-level warm/moist
advection strengthening after 06z over east TX. Forecast soundings
suggest the mid-level capping inversion will be eroding through the
overnight period, but it is uncertain whether deep convection will
commence before or after 12z. Given the diversity of CAM solutions
regarding this issue, will add a small thunderstorm forecast area
for the last hour or two of the period to parts of east TX and
western LA. No severe storms are expected until the Day2 period.
..Hart/Wendt.. 11/28/2022
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Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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