Severe Storms

MD 0190 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0190 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0407 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Areas affected...eastern Texas into parts of Arkansas and Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051007Z - 051230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms will persist this morning from eastern Texas into western Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and western Louisiana. Sporadic severe hail will remain possible with the stronger cells, but coverage and severity does not warrant a watch. DISCUSSION...A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints is in place over the region, ahead of a surface trough extending from south-central MO across southeast OK and into northern TX. Although low-level winds and surface convergence are relatively weak, the influence of a midlevel shortwave is resulting in sufficient lift to support development. Various clusters of cells are ongoing from eastern TX into AR, with weaker development even farther north. However, the greatest threat of hail over 1.00" diameter over the next several hours should be near the instability axis from southeast OK and the Arklatex southward, where MUCAPE is over 2000 J/kg. Lack of deep-layer shear is likely minimizing the severe risk to an extent, with 500 mb winds only around 25 kt where the storms are ongoing. Stronger speeds do exist farther south along the TX Coast and toward southern LA, currently removed from the zone of ascent. As such, the threat of sporadic, short-lived hail cores is forecast to persist through the morning, shifting slowly east with the midlevel wave. Cells over southern areas may experience a more favorable shear environment, and an isolated hail report to around 1.75" cannot be ruled out. ..Jewell/Edwards.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 30909291 30569347 30529417 30619483 30849531 31259564 32139611 32739625 33569634 34129603 34589553 34759487 34709408 34429339 34049305 32519273 32069262 31409273 30909291 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will cross the northern Plains during the afternoon, while a related surface cyclone tracks northeastward from SD across northwestern MN. Along/east of the surface cyclone, a tightening pressure gradient, coupled with shallow boundary-layer mixing into a southerly low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across portions of northeastern NE, eastern SD, far northwest IA, and western MN. While RH reductions will be limited, owing to slightly cool surface temperatures (especially with northward extent), high-resolution ensemble guidance suggests that 25-30 percent minimum RH is possible. As a result, an elevated wind-driven fire-weather risk is expected, given modestly receptive fuels across the region. Farther south, midlevel west-southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. In response, weak lee cyclogenesis is expected over eastern CO, favoring 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across the southern High Plains. Here, downslope warming/drying will contribute to 15 percent minimum RH, leading to elevated/locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 03/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more