Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX...FL...SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains. Hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west, a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level moisture expected across the southern Plains. The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped convection with some lightning potential will also be possible across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible. ...Florida Peninsula... In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South Carolina and vicinity... After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas. MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of central/eastern SC. ...North Texas... While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX...FL...SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains. Hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west, a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level moisture expected across the southern Plains. The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped convection with some lightning potential will also be possible across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible. ...Florida Peninsula... In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South Carolina and vicinity... After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas. MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of central/eastern SC. ...North Texas... While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX...FL...SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains. Hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west, a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level moisture expected across the southern Plains. The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped convection with some lightning potential will also be possible across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible. ...Florida Peninsula... In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South Carolina and vicinity... After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas. MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of central/eastern SC. ...North Texas... While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX...FL...SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains. Hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west, a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level moisture expected across the southern Plains. The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped convection with some lightning potential will also be possible across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible. ...Florida Peninsula... In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South Carolina and vicinity... After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas. MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of central/eastern SC. ...North Texas... While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX...FL...SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains. Hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west, a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level moisture expected across the southern Plains. The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped convection with some lightning potential will also be possible across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible. ...Florida Peninsula... In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South Carolina and vicinity... After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas. MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of central/eastern SC. ...North Texas... While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024 Read more

MD 0193 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the western Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060147Z - 060345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and possibly a brief/weak tornado could accompany an approaching mesoscale convective system from the west in the next hour or so. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized quasi-linear convective system is tracking eastward at around 30-35 kt across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and is approximately 35-40 miles west of Tampa Bay FL. While the latest IR satellite trends suggest a gradual weakening of this system as it encounters cooler sea-surface temperatures and weaker buoyancy offshore of the western FL Peninsula, around 40 kt of midlevel westerly flow perpendicular to the established cold pool should support some maintenance as it approaches the coast. Regardless, antecedent heating/destabilization of a relatively moist airmass (upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints) over the peninsula could support locally damaging gusts as it moves ashore in the next hour or so, though the onset of nocturnal cooling could offset this to an extent. In addition, small clockwise-curved hodographs could support a brief/weak tornado along the immediate coastal areas, though the stronger low-level flow/shear is largely displaced to the north, where earlier convection/cloud coverage limited destabilization. Current thinking is that the overall severe-threat will remain too localized/marginal for a watch consideration. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 25938194 26848250 27678287 28198289 28898276 29008255 29008227 28968203 28778190 28088181 27228164 26448135 25988126 25798153 25938194 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A SMALL PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula this evening through late tonight. ...Florida Peninsula... An MCS is moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening, with increasing storm coverage noted farther east along the Gulf Coast sea breeze across the west-central FL Peninsula. The 00Z TBW sounding (adjusted for current surface observations) and objective mesoanalysis indicate MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across parts of the peninsula, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. A marginal supercell or two will remain possible across mainly the central peninsula this evening, with some threat for locally damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. Low-level flow/shear is generally rather weak, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the supercell potential within a moist environment. Longevity of the MCS over the Gulf remains uncertain, due to relatively weaker instability offshore of the FL Gulf Coast. However, if organized convection can persist into parts of the peninsula later tonight, then some threat for locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the remnant of the MCS as it moves eastward. ...North-central TX... A couple stronger storms are ongoing east of the Metroplex this evening, but storm coverage and intensity are expected to wane with time, as nocturnal cooling/stabilization commences within a weakly forced environment. An isolated hail threat may accompany any remaining stronger storms until they diminish. ..Dean.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A SMALL PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula this evening through late tonight. ...Florida Peninsula... An MCS is moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening, with increasing storm coverage noted farther east along the Gulf Coast sea breeze across the west-central FL Peninsula. The 00Z TBW sounding (adjusted for current surface observations) and objective mesoanalysis indicate MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across parts of the peninsula, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. A marginal supercell or two will remain possible across mainly the central peninsula this evening, with some threat for locally damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. Low-level flow/shear is generally rather weak, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the supercell potential within a moist environment. Longevity of the MCS over the Gulf remains uncertain, due to relatively weaker instability offshore of the FL Gulf Coast. However, if organized convection can persist into parts of the peninsula later tonight, then some threat for locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the remnant of the MCS as it moves eastward. ...North-central TX... A couple stronger storms are ongoing east of the Metroplex this evening, but storm coverage and intensity are expected to wane with time, as nocturnal cooling/stabilization commences within a weakly forced environment. An isolated hail threat may accompany any remaining stronger storms until they diminish. ..Dean.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A SMALL PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula this evening through late tonight. ...Florida Peninsula... An MCS is moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening, with increasing storm coverage noted farther east along the Gulf Coast sea breeze across the west-central FL Peninsula. The 00Z TBW sounding (adjusted for current surface observations) and objective mesoanalysis indicate MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across parts of the peninsula, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. A marginal supercell or two will remain possible across mainly the central peninsula this evening, with some threat for locally damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. Low-level flow/shear is generally rather weak, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the supercell potential within a moist environment. Longevity of the MCS over the Gulf remains uncertain, due to relatively weaker instability offshore of the FL Gulf Coast. However, if organized convection can persist into parts of the peninsula later tonight, then some threat for locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the remnant of the MCS as it moves eastward. ...North-central TX... A couple stronger storms are ongoing east of the Metroplex this evening, but storm coverage and intensity are expected to wane with time, as nocturnal cooling/stabilization commences within a weakly forced environment. An isolated hail threat may accompany any remaining stronger storms until they diminish. ..Dean.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A SMALL PART OF NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula this evening through late tonight. ...Florida Peninsula... An MCS is moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening, with increasing storm coverage noted farther east along the Gulf Coast sea breeze across the west-central FL Peninsula. The 00Z TBW sounding (adjusted for current surface observations) and objective mesoanalysis indicate MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across parts of the peninsula, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some storm organization. A marginal supercell or two will remain possible across mainly the central peninsula this evening, with some threat for locally damaging gusts and perhaps some hail. Low-level flow/shear is generally rather weak, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the supercell potential within a moist environment. Longevity of the MCS over the Gulf remains uncertain, due to relatively weaker instability offshore of the FL Gulf Coast. However, if organized convection can persist into parts of the peninsula later tonight, then some threat for locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may accompany the remnant of the MCS as it moves eastward. ...North-central TX... A couple stronger storms are ongoing east of the Metroplex this evening, but storm coverage and intensity are expected to wane with time, as nocturnal cooling/stabilization commences within a weakly forced environment. An isolated hail threat may accompany any remaining stronger storms until they diminish. ..Dean.. 03/06/2024 Read more