Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are expected to spread eastward from the ArkLaTex vicinity across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States Friday through Friday night. ...East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will eject over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley on Friday. Enhanced west-southwesterly flow associated with a mid/upper-level jet over these regions will aid in strong deep-layer shear that will support organized severe thunderstorms. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the placement and strength of multiple surface lows attendant to the ejecting upper trough. The primary surface low of interest should develop from the southern OK/north TX border vicinity towards the ArkLaTex through Friday evening. Rich low-level moisture will attempt to stream northward in tandem with a southerly low-level jet. But, the potential for ongoing convection across north/central TX Friday morning, and its subsequent evolution, may complicate/hinder the northward extent of the greater low-level moisture return across the lower MS Valley. Even with this possible complication, it appears likely that sufficient destabilization will occur across the warm sector, in tandem with modest daytime heating, to support surface-based thunderstorms. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear should foster organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells capable of producing tornadoes and large hail from east TX into LA/MS and eventually the central Gulf Coast. Some 00Z guidance (including the GFS/NAM) show a secondary area of large-hail potential closer to the surface low and colder temperatures aloft/steeper mid-level lapse rates across parts of eastern OK into the ArkLaTex. The Slight Risk has been expanded northward to account for this potential. Damaging winds may become an increasing concern with eastward extent across the lower MS Valley/Southeast Friday evening and continuing overnight into early Saturday morning, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to grow into multiple bowing clusters. Low-level shear will also remain strong enough to support a continued, nocturnal tornado threat across these areas. Given continued model differences, the northward extent of greater low-level moisture remains somewhat uncertain. The Slight Risk delineates where confidence is currently highest in surface-based convection with related risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. There is some chance that the Slight Risk will need to be expanded northward across parts of AR/MS/AL if models trend towards a deeper surface low and related warm front located farther north. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern and central Plains. Large hail should be the main threat, but occasional severe winds and a tornado or two may also occur. ...Southern/Central Plains... An upper trough/low initially over southern CA and northwest Mexico is forecast to advance eastward across the Southwest and northern Mexico through the day, eventually ejecting over the southern High Plains Thursday night. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature should encourage the gradual deepening of a surface low over the TX Panhandle by late Thursday afternoon. In response, northward return of modest/shallow low-level moisture will occur across parts of TX/OK to the east of a dryline extending southward from the surface low. A cold front is also forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains through Thursday evening. This boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to any appreciable hail threat. Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of north TX into OK and KS. This convection will be tied to warm advection/lift attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE forecast, small to perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. In the wake of the morning activity, gradual destabilization should occur along/east of the dryline as daytime heating acts on the shallow moist boundary layer. With the late timing of the ejection of the upper trough (mainly Thursday night), subtle mesoscale processes may be responsible for convective initiation late Thursday afternoon and early evening. The front/dryline intersection over the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK and vicinity may be a favored location for robust convection to develop. With cold temperatures present aloft, along with steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, this initially discrete convection should be capable of producing large hail. But, the number of supercells that can form along the dryline remains uncertain. Regardless, the Slight Risk has been expanded northward into western OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle to account for the hail risk. A narrow window may also exist for a tornado or two Thursday evening as low-level shear increases, but the limited low-level moisture should tend to hinder this threat. Additional convection should form late Thursday night into early Friday morning across parts of central into north-central TX. This activity should pose a threat for large hail so long as supercells can remain discrete. Occasional strong to severe winds may also occur if upscale growth into small bowing clusters occurs. An isolated threat for severe hail should also be present along and south of the southeastward-moving cold front in KS and southwestern MO through the day, although instability is forecast to remain weaker with northward extent into the central Plains and Ozarks. ..Gleason.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX...FL...SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains. Hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west, a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level moisture expected across the southern Plains. The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped convection with some lightning potential will also be possible across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible. ...Florida Peninsula... In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South Carolina and vicinity... After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas. MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of central/eastern SC. ...North Texas... While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX...FL...SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains. Hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west, a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level moisture expected across the southern Plains. The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped convection with some lightning potential will also be possible across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible. ...Florida Peninsula... In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South Carolina and vicinity... After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas. MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of central/eastern SC. ...North Texas... While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX...FL...SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains. Hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west, a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level moisture expected across the southern Plains. The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped convection with some lightning potential will also be possible across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible. ...Florida Peninsula... In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South Carolina and vicinity... After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas. MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of central/eastern SC. ...North Texas... While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH TX...FL...SC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern Great Plains. Hail and gusty winds should be the main threats with this activity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move northeastward from the Southeast toward the Mid Atlantic coast through the day. A related surface low is forecast to move from Georgia toward southeast VA. Farther west, a deep upper-level trough will move eastward across the southwestern CONUS. A surface low is forecast to gradually consolidate in the lee of the southern Rockies, with some modest increase in low-level moisture expected across the southern Plains. The greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of the Southeast/Florida, and also across the southern Plains. Low-topped convection with some lightning potential will also be possible across southern CA, with some small hail and weak rotation possible. ...Florida Peninsula... In the wake of overnight convection, moderate destabilization will be possible by late morning into the afternoon across parts of the central and southern FL Peninsula. As the upper trough and weak cold front approach the region, scattered thunderstorm development will be possible. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support modestly organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two. Isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South Carolina and vicinity... After rather extensive morning precipitation, some modest air mass recovery will be possible across parts of GA and the Carolinas. MLCAPE may approach 1000 J/kg by late afternoon as a midlevel vorticity maximum approaches the region, resulting in the potential for scattered thunderstorm redevelopment. Deep-layer shear will be marginally favorable for organized convection, and isolated hail and or strong gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. At this time, the greatest storm coverage is expected across parts of central/eastern SC. ...North Texas... While large-scale ascent will remain rather subtle across the southern Plains, most guidance depicts isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening from northwest into north-central TX, possibly related to an approaching upper-level jet maximum. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear could support a strong storm or two capable of hail and/or strong wind gusts, though poor upper-level lapse rates and subtle forcing will tend to limit storm intensity and coverage. ..Dean/Weinman.. 03/06/2024 Read more