Severe Storms

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E SEP TO 30 SSE FTW TO 10 N TYR. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-139-161-213-217-251-293-309-349-425-281640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL JOHNSON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO SOMERVELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E SEP TO 30 SSE FTW TO 10 N TYR. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-139-161-213-217-251-293-309-349-425-281640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL JOHNSON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO SOMERVELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E SEP TO 30 SSE FTW TO 10 N TYR. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-139-161-213-217-251-293-309-349-425-281640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL JOHNSON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO SOMERVELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E SEP TO 30 SSE FTW TO 10 N TYR. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-139-161-213-217-251-293-309-349-425-281640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL JOHNSON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO SOMERVELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 340 SEVERE TSTM TX 280940Z - 281600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 340 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North central Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning from 440 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms, including embedded supercells, will likely persist through at least mid morning while moving south-southeastward toward the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and areas farther south. Swaths of damage with 60-80 mph winds will be possible, especially on the west flank of embedded supercells. Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter can also be expected with the more intense storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Fort Worth TX to 35 miles south of Corsicana TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 339... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 32025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1037 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 341... FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1037 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...northeast Texas into western Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341... Valid 281400Z - 281530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341 continues. SUMMARY...Strong gusts of 45-65 mph remain possible with east/southeast propagating bow over northeast Texas. DISCUSSION...An organized and strong bow continues to shift east/southeast across northeast TX along an instability gradient. Recent radar data shows an outflow boundary associated with an area of convection to the northeast of the bow surging southeast and intersecting the bow near its apex. This may have a deleterious impact on the organization of the bow over the next hour. The strongest measured gust noted in the past 30-60 minutes was a 47 kt gust at KTYR. Strong to severe gusts of 45 to 65 mph and isolated hail remain possible in the near term. Trends will be monitored for possible downstream watch issuance into parts of western/central LA. ..Leitman.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32789552 32789526 32669462 32359382 32019327 31539304 31249306 31049323 31009331 30969358 31169455 31459513 31769560 32789552 Read more

WW 0341 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 341 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW TYR TO 15 NNE TYR TO 20 NE GGG. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-073-183-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-281540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SEP TO 20 SE DAL TO 45 SSW PRX. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-139-161-213-217-221-251-257-293-309-349-379-425-467- 281540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO RAINS SOMERVELL VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1036 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340... FOR NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0843 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...north Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 340... Valid 281343Z - 281445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 340 continues. SUMMARY...Strong gusts and hail remain possible with storms across WW 340. DISCUSSION...Outflow associated with the intense bow that moved through the Metroplex earlier this morning has surged south of ongoing convection from Stephens to Tarrant Counties in north Texas. Ongoing convection is elevated behind this cooler outflow. Marginally severe hail may still accompany the stronger cells within this cluster, along with gusty winds, though the overall severe risk is lower behind the outflow. Gusty winds also will be possible with the outflow itself as it continues to shift south/southwest through the morning. A very moist and unstable airmass is in place ahead of the outflow. The area will be monitored for potential redevelopment later this morning or afternoon along this boundary. ..Leitman.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... LAT...LON 31129819 31359902 31619942 31899953 32479961 32899954 33069937 33079902 33009815 32929691 32869668 32699638 32279613 31809618 31319645 31189676 31069742 31129819 Read more

WW 0341 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 341 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-073-183-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-459-499-281440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH UPSHUR WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MWL TO 50 NNW TYR. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-113-139-161-213-217-221-251-257-293-309-349-363-367- 379-397-425-439-467-281440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE DALLAS ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more