Severe Storms

WW 0341 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 341 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-073-183-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-459-499-281440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH UPSHUR WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MWL TO 50 NNW TYR. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-113-139-161-213-217-221-251-257-293-309-349-363-367- 379-397-425-439-467-281440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE DALLAS ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF EAST...CENTRAL AND WEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Corridors of severe wind of 60-80 mph and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected with multiple convective clusters across east/southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon, and from west into central Texas later this afternoon into tonight. ...TX/southwest LA through tonight... A complex situation is unfolding this morning across TX, with an initial, severe MCS (that evolved from earlier/elevated convection) surging southeastward from north central into east TX. This MCS has a history of measured 75-80 mph gusts and it will likely move along the strong buoyancy gradient near and east of the Trinity River. The MCS will be maintained by a corridor of mid-upper 70s dewpoints and extreme MLCAPE up to 4000 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to help maintain organization of the MCS, while the extreme buoyancy/steep lapse rate environment will also favor a continuation of strong downdrafts with the potential to produce additional gusts of 75-80 mph into southeast TX this afternoon (possibly including the Houston metro area). Farther west, outflow from the ongoing convection may help focus additional storm development this afternoon into west central and central TX, or could serve as an effective eastern boundary to storms that form and move east of the southern High Plains and Trans-Pecos. Expect a mix of supercells with very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and some upscale growth into clusters/line segments with the potential to produce severe outflow winds of 60-75 mph from later this afternoon into early tonight. ...Elsewhere... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN this morning will progress southeastward toward IL by this evening. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough, cool midlevel temperatures and lingering low-level moisture could be sufficient for a few storms to produce marginally severe hail and/or strong outflow gusts this afternoon/evening from southern WI to northern IL/northwest IN. Farther west, a midlevel trough will move inland over WA/OR and the associated deep baroclinic zone will approach the northern Rockies. Moisture will be limited in this zone, but some high-based convection could produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/28/2024 Read more

MD 1035 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 340... FOR EAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1035 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...East TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 340... Valid 281110Z - 281245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 340 continues. SUMMARY...A significant severe MCS over the Metroplex will likely accelerate southeast across parts of east Texas through mid to late morning. Significant damaging gusts of 75-85 mph along with embedded severe hail will be possible. A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed downstream of WW 340. DISCUSSION...A bowing complex is evolving across the Metroplex with ASOS-measured gusts to 77 mph at KDFW in the past 30 minutes. As mentioned in MCD 1033, this MCS will likely accelerate and move along the pronounced MLCAPE gradient that extends into southeast TX. Longer-term, this includes potential for the MCS to propagate to the northwest Gulf Coast later today. In the near-term, while the most intense severe gusts should persist within WW 340, it is plausible that damaging winds will spread farther east into parts of east TX and south into southeast TX. ..Grams.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 33309584 32739517 32209465 31269448 30809449 30429487 30189601 30369695 31019727 31409717 32519732 33309584 Read more

WW 0340 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035. ..GRAMS..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-113-139-161-213-217-221-231-251-257-293-309-349-363- 367-379-397-425-439-467-281340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE DALLAS ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL HOOD HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO PALO PINTO PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more