Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

MD 1030 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...Far Northwest TX...Southwest OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 280452Z - 280645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage, with an attendant threat for large hail, is anticipated across far northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma over the next few hours. Overall severe coverage is uncertain, but convective trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 40 miles east of BGS, with a warm front extending east-northeastward from this low across north Texas and into the Arklatex. Modest warm-air advection across this boundary likely contributed to the development of the thunderstorm ongoing over Baylor County. The core of the low-level jet is expected to remain west of the region, but a general strengthening of the jet will allow its eastern periphery to interact with this frontal zone, likely contributing to additional storm development via warm-air advection. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain in place over the region, with mesoanalysis estimating 8 to 8.5 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb. Moderate westerly flow aloft will persist as well, contributing to 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt. General expectation is for increasing storm coverage over the next hour or two, with some updrafts becoming strong enough to produce isolated large hail. ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33470010 34240022 35209968 34929785 33409755 33289853 33470010 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ..Moore.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ..Moore.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ..Moore.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ..Moore.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ..Moore.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ..Moore.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ..Moore.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ..Moore.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more