Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that an initially prominent mid-level ridge will become increasingly suppressed across the Great Lakes region late this week into early next weekend. It appears that flow will then trend more zonal along the interior Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, but subsequent flow evolution remains uncertain due to continuing notable spread within/among the various model output. Broad mid-level ridging, within the stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific, is generally forecast to build inland of the northern Pacific coast through the western/central Canadian U.S. border area by the middle of next week. It is possible that this may be preceded by mid-level troughing which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri Valley and northern Great Plains Red River Valley by early next Monday, then across northwestern Ontario Tuesday. It might not be out of the question that increasing flow and shear, coupled with low-level moisture return ahead of a sharpening dryline across the High Plains, could contribute to an increase in severe weather potential late Sunday afternoon. This could continue along a cold front overtaking the dryline across the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and along the dryline across the central and southern High Plains, into Monday/Monday night. Read more

WW 0339 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 339 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032. ..GRAMS..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-019-031-033-049-051-067-069-075-085-087-095-099-123-137- 141-280940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CARTER COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-077-085-097-121-181-237-337-485-487-497-503-280940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON GRAYSON JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG Read more

MD 1031 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 339... FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1031 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...the Red River Valley of OK/TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339... Valid 280649Z - 280815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered large hail from several right and left-splitting supercells will be the primary threat through the pre-dawn hours. Later clustering will probably be necessary for an appreciable severe wind threat. DISCUSSION...Several right and left-splits have been noted over the past hour, mainly across southwest and south-central OK into far western north TX. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs remain completely off with the early morning initiation of this activity. The 00Z ECMWF appears to have adequately handled the ongoing evolution, with the 00Z NAM-NEST and NSSL-ARW too slow but with the general idea of low-level warm-advection driven storms persisting. With increasingly large MUCAPE to the south of this activity, regenerative cells will probably continue for the next few hours along the east periphery of the low-level jet centered on west TX. Hail magnitudes should occasionally peak around 2 inches per recent MESH estimates. Farther north and northeast, from west-central to southeast OK, a band of ACCAS is evident in radar/satellite imagery. Forecast soundings suggest further low-level moistening may aid in this activity deepening during the next few hours. But with weaker MUCAPE, the severe hail threat here should be more marginal. ..Grams.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34169966 34509976 34809946 35149898 35159785 34969691 34779619 34399603 33989622 33709671 33649788 33749861 33989936 34169966 Read more

WW 0339 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 339 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031. ..GRAMS..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-019-031-033-049-051-067-069-075-085-087-095-099-123-137- 141-280840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CARTER COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KIOWA LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-077-097-181-337-485-487-280840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COOKE GRAYSON MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central and southern High Plains Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This may include a few supercells initially, before one or two thunderstorm clusters develop and organize, posing a risk for severe wind gusts in addition to large hail. ...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level troughing on the leading edge of stronger westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may linger across the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains through this period. However, it appears that the primary embedded perturbation will be forced to pivot north of the international border through the eastern Canadian Prairies, accompanied by continuing surface cyclogenesis centered over northern Saskatchewan. As this occurs, initially prominent downstream ridging will become suppressed southeastward across the Lake Superior and adjacent northwestern Ontario vicinity, and amplified troughing further downstream may slowly begin to shift across the Atlantic Seaboard. In the southern mid- into subtropical latitudes, broad weak mid-level troughing probably will linger across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida vicinity, downstream of suppressed subtropical ridging. At least a couple of weak waves are forecast to continue migrating around the periphery of this ridge, including one slowly across and east of the southern Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content appears likely to remain confined to the southern Great Plains into deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies through this period. It appears that warm elevated mixed-layer air will slowly advect to the east of the southern Rockies, and contribute to a strengthening lower/mid-level baroclinic zone roughly from the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into northwestern Texas by late Thursday afternoon. Along and to the southwest of this zone, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may contribute to sizable mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg with daytime heating. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Early period warm advection driven convection preceding the eastward advection of the elevated mixed-layer air could be a complicating factor with regard to destabilization and subsequent convective development through Thursday and Thursday night. However, the strengthening baroclinic zone may become the focus for organizing upscale growing convection, initially forming within the lee surface troughing and/or propagating off the higher terrain to the west. Given the potential instability, this could include the evolution of one or two prominent mesoscale convective vortices with strengthening mid-level rear inflow contributing to potential for sustained strong to severe surface gusts as the storms clusters and associated surface cold pools tend to propagate southeastward along the baroclinic zone. It is possible that this may become particularly focused across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Texas by late Thursday evening, aided by forcing associated with the short wave impulse emerging from the Southwest. Severe wind probabilities might need to be increased across this region in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 05/28/2024 Read more