Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

WW 0343 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0343 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected across southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon. Another area of significant severe weather potential will develop across west Texas this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Western LA... A large nocturnal MCS that continues to affect east TX has dramatically changed the overall forecast of severe storms for later today. The leading edge of the MCS will affect southeast TX and southwest LA this afternoon, in a very moist and extremely unstable environment. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds and very large hail until early evening when the primary activity moves offshore. ...West TX... The outflow boundary from the aforementioned MCS has surged westward across TX. A zone of strong heating and locally higher surface dewpoints on the north side of the boundary is expected to result in rapid thunderstorm development by late afternoon. These storms will be in a favorably sheared environment for intense supercells capable of all severe hazards. Activity will persist through much of the evening and spread into west-central TX. ...WI/IL/IN... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop ahead of a shortwave trough over southeast MN. A few of the storms may produce locally gusty winds and hail, but the overall severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Outer Banks of NC... A weak surface boundary currently parallels the NC coast, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this boundary, with a risk of locally damaging winds or hail in the most intense storms. ...ME... Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to affect central and eastern ME as a shortwave trough moves across the area. Gusty winds and hail will be possible in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected across southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon. Another area of significant severe weather potential will develop across west Texas this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Western LA... A large nocturnal MCS that continues to affect east TX has dramatically changed the overall forecast of severe storms for later today. The leading edge of the MCS will affect southeast TX and southwest LA this afternoon, in a very moist and extremely unstable environment. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds and very large hail until early evening when the primary activity moves offshore. ...West TX... The outflow boundary from the aforementioned MCS has surged westward across TX. A zone of strong heating and locally higher surface dewpoints on the north side of the boundary is expected to result in rapid thunderstorm development by late afternoon. These storms will be in a favorably sheared environment for intense supercells capable of all severe hazards. Activity will persist through much of the evening and spread into west-central TX. ...WI/IL/IN... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop ahead of a shortwave trough over southeast MN. A few of the storms may produce locally gusty winds and hail, but the overall severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Outer Banks of NC... A weak surface boundary currently parallels the NC coast, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this boundary, with a risk of locally damaging winds or hail in the most intense storms. ...ME... Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to affect central and eastern ME as a shortwave trough moves across the area. Gusty winds and hail will be possible in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected across southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon. Another area of significant severe weather potential will develop across west Texas this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Western LA... A large nocturnal MCS that continues to affect east TX has dramatically changed the overall forecast of severe storms for later today. The leading edge of the MCS will affect southeast TX and southwest LA this afternoon, in a very moist and extremely unstable environment. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds and very large hail until early evening when the primary activity moves offshore. ...West TX... The outflow boundary from the aforementioned MCS has surged westward across TX. A zone of strong heating and locally higher surface dewpoints on the north side of the boundary is expected to result in rapid thunderstorm development by late afternoon. These storms will be in a favorably sheared environment for intense supercells capable of all severe hazards. Activity will persist through much of the evening and spread into west-central TX. ...WI/IL/IN... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop ahead of a shortwave trough over southeast MN. A few of the storms may produce locally gusty winds and hail, but the overall severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Outer Banks of NC... A weak surface boundary currently parallels the NC coast, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this boundary, with a risk of locally damaging winds or hail in the most intense storms. ...ME... Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to affect central and eastern ME as a shortwave trough moves across the area. Gusty winds and hail will be possible in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of damaging winds and occasional very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) can be expected across southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana through this afternoon. Another area of significant severe weather potential will develop across west Texas this afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Western LA... A large nocturnal MCS that continues to affect east TX has dramatically changed the overall forecast of severe storms for later today. The leading edge of the MCS will affect southeast TX and southwest LA this afternoon, in a very moist and extremely unstable environment. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds and very large hail until early evening when the primary activity moves offshore. ...West TX... The outflow boundary from the aforementioned MCS has surged westward across TX. A zone of strong heating and locally higher surface dewpoints on the north side of the boundary is expected to result in rapid thunderstorm development by late afternoon. These storms will be in a favorably sheared environment for intense supercells capable of all severe hazards. Activity will persist through much of the evening and spread into west-central TX. ...WI/IL/IN... Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop ahead of a shortwave trough over southeast MN. A few of the storms may produce locally gusty winds and hail, but the overall severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ...Outer Banks of NC... A weak surface boundary currently parallels the NC coast, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this boundary, with a risk of locally damaging winds or hail in the most intense storms. ...ME... Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to affect central and eastern ME as a shortwave trough moves across the area. Gusty winds and hail will be possible in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/28/2024 Read more