Severe Storms

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GPT TO 15 W MOB TO 20 ENE MOB TO 25 N PNS TO 15 SE GZH TO 30 WSW TOI. ..WENDT..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-031-039-041-045-053-061-069-097-131640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-131640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON MSC047-059-131640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GPT TO 15 W MOB TO 20 ENE MOB TO 25 N PNS TO 15 SE GZH TO 30 WSW TOI. ..WENDT..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-031-039-041-045-053-061-069-097-131640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-131640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON MSC047-059-131640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GPT TO 15 W MOB TO 20 ENE MOB TO 25 N PNS TO 15 SE GZH TO 30 WSW TOI. ..WENDT..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-031-039-041-045-053-061-069-097-131640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN COFFEE COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-131640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON MSC047-059-131640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 234 SEVERE TSTM AL FL MS CW 131000Z - 131600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Far Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning from 500 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of east/southeastward-moving storms will likely intensify this morning along and north of a northward-shifting warm front. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Mobile AL to 20 miles southeast of Marianna FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC013-019-021-025-029-031-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-175- 177-187-209-255-259-265-271-283-285-287-297-311-323-325-385-453- 463-469-479-493-507-131540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATASCOSA BANDERA BASTROP BEE BEXAR BLANCO CALDWELL COMAL DEWITT DIMMIT EDWARDS FAYETTE FRIO GILLESPIE GOLIAD GONZALES GUADALUPE HAYS KARNES KENDALL KERR KINNEY LA SALLE LAVACA LEE LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MAVERICK MEDINA REAL TRAVIS UVALDE VICTORIA WEBB WILSON ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0764 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234... FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL MS/AL INTO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0764 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0900 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Portions of coastal MS/AL into the western FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234... Valid 131400Z - 131530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234 continues. SUMMARY...A greater threat for severe/damaging winds should focus along the Mississippi/Alabama Coast into the western Florida Panhandle this morning. DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster is ongoing over southern/coastal AL this morning. A warm front is draped east-southeastward across southern AL into the western FL Panhandle based on latest surface observations. Recent velocity data from KMOB show strong inbound velocities at low levels. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds should be focused along and south of the warm front into parts of the western FL Panhandle, where there will be a better likelihood for downdraft winds to reach the surface. Enhanced low-level flow and strong boundary-layer shear noted on recent VWPs from KMOB may also support some threat for an embedded tornado. ..Gleason.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30808891 31018846 31308785 30998676 30768626 30398604 30188628 30248711 30118797 30228860 30378884 30808891 Read more

MD 0763 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0763 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0833 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 131333Z - 131530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail and damaging winds should continue to increase this morning. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...The 12Z sounding from DRT shows rich low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, with resulting MUCAPE approaching 4000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt will easily support supercell structures, and multiple thunderstorms have already developed near Eagle Pass TX with a weak mid-level perturbation ejecting from northern Mexico across TX. Current expectations are for this ongoing activity to gradually spread eastward across south-central TX this morning, while posing a threat for very large hail (around 2-3 inches in diameter) with any sustained supercells. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen with filtered daytime heating. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be needed to address the increasing threat for very large hail this morning. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29300086 29780014 29999847 29919717 29199689 28559715 28289844 28210009 28390044 28840081 29300086 Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW GPT TO 20 ENE MOB TO 25 WSW GZH TO 30 SSE SEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764 ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-069-097-131540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-131540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON MSC047-059-131540- Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0235 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GPT TO 30 NNW MOB TO 45 WSW SEM. ..GLEASON..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-069-097-099-129-131- 131440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-131440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON MSC039-047-059-131-131440- Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/13/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-069-097-099-129- 131-131340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-033-045-059-063-091-113-131-133-131340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA GULF HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON MSC039-041-047-059-111-131-153-131340- Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across the Gulf Coast states. The potential exists for multiple corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Central/eastern Texas... The region will be influenced by moderately strong cyclonically curved westerlies within the base of the central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley-centered upper-level trough. Some northward spread of a very moist near-coastal air mass will occur today ahead of an upstream southeastward-moving cold front and weak surface wave. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates (reference 12z observed soundings from DFW/CRP), strong destabilization is expected into the afternoon as multi-layer cloud cover becomes more scattered, with upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE across much of south-central and east/southeast Texas. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, with elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter where sustained supercell structure can develop and persist. With time, storms should grow upscale into an east/southeastward-moving MCS later in the afternoon and evening as they move toward the coastal plain and interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Gulf Coast/Southeast... A quasi-linear storm cluster persists this morning across far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, on the immediate cool side of a near-coastal warm front that will continue to develop north-northeastward through the day. This cluster may grow further upscale with a continued severe risk through the morning, particularly with 75-100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico. This includes the potential for all severe hazards including damaging winds, large hail and some tornado risk. Additional storm development and intensification is possible today along the outflow reinforced effective front that extends westward across far southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana. Additionally, linearly organized storms moving out of Texas could approach some of these same areas again late tonight. Any such secondary/tertiary rounds of severe risk will depend upon how far south the effective baroclinic zone has been shunted southward by convection through the afternoon/early evening, likely confining any such severe potential late tonight to more immediate coastal areas. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks this morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across Missouri/Arkansas later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong with northward extent, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated severe hail and/or wind. ...Florida Peninsula... To the south of potential MCS influences across northern Florida, surface temperatures are expected to rise into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist air mass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail and damaging winds gusts possible. ...Northern Montana... A few strong storms could occur from mid-afternoon through early evening, influenced by a low-amplitude mid-level disturbance and a modestly moist/unstable boundary layer. Some stronger wind gusts/hail could occur, but modest-strength low/mid-tropospheric winds should keep organized severe potential low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/13/2024 Read more