Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... CORRECTED GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the central High Plains/southern Plains. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas... Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. This convection may be accompanied by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east, convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to occur. With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should organize -- potentially growing upscale into east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale bows. Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging gusts would likely accompany this convection. As evolution of Day 1 convection, and the associated location of the convectively reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains... As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains. Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts. As such, MRGL risk for gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region. Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area, with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening hours. ...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas... As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development over a broad area. Isolated Colorado Front Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma west-southwestward to the Permian Basin. Relatively modest deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly multicell organization is anticipated. Still, locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... CORRECTED GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the central High Plains/southern Plains. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas... Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. This convection may be accompanied by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east, convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to occur. With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should organize -- potentially growing upscale into east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale bows. Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging gusts would likely accompany this convection. As evolution of Day 1 convection, and the associated location of the convectively reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains... As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains. Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts. As such, MRGL risk for gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region. Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area, with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening hours. ...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas... As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development over a broad area. Isolated Colorado Front Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma west-southwestward to the Permian Basin. Relatively modest deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly multicell organization is anticipated. Still, locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... CORRECTED GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the central High Plains/southern Plains. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas... Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. This convection may be accompanied by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east, convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to occur. With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should organize -- potentially growing upscale into east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale bows. Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging gusts would likely accompany this convection. As evolution of Day 1 convection, and the associated location of the convectively reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains... As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains. Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts. As such, MRGL risk for gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region. Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area, with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening hours. ...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas... As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development over a broad area. Isolated Colorado Front Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma west-southwestward to the Permian Basin. Relatively modest deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly multicell organization is anticipated. Still, locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... CORRECTED GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the central High Plains/southern Plains. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas... Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. This convection may be accompanied by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east, convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to occur. With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should organize -- potentially growing upscale into east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale bows. Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging gusts would likely accompany this convection. As evolution of Day 1 convection, and the associated location of the convectively reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains... As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains. Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts. As such, MRGL risk for gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region. Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area, with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening hours. ...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas... As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development over a broad area. Isolated Colorado Front Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma west-southwestward to the Permian Basin. Relatively modest deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly multicell organization is anticipated. Still, locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... CORRECTED GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the central High Plains/southern Plains. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas... Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. This convection may be accompanied by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east, convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to occur. With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should organize -- potentially growing upscale into east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale bows. Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging gusts would likely accompany this convection. As evolution of Day 1 convection, and the associated location of the convectively reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains... As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains. Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts. As such, MRGL risk for gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region. Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area, with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening hours. ...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas... As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development over a broad area. Isolated Colorado Front Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma west-southwestward to the Permian Basin. Relatively modest deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly multicell organization is anticipated. Still, locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... CORRECTED GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the central High Plains/southern Plains. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas... Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. This convection may be accompanied by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east, convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to occur. With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should organize -- potentially growing upscale into east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale bows. Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging gusts would likely accompany this convection. As evolution of Day 1 convection, and the associated location of the convectively reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains... As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains. Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts. As such, MRGL risk for gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region. Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area, with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening hours. ...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas... As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development over a broad area. Isolated Colorado Front Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma west-southwestward to the Permian Basin. Relatively modest deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly multicell organization is anticipated. Still, locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... CORRECTED GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the central High Plains/southern Plains. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas... Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. This convection may be accompanied by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east, convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to occur. With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should organize -- potentially growing upscale into east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale bows. Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging gusts would likely accompany this convection. As evolution of Day 1 convection, and the associated location of the convectively reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains... As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains. Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts. As such, MRGL risk for gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region. Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area, with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening hours. ...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas... As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development over a broad area. Isolated Colorado Front Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma west-southwestward to the Permian Basin. Relatively modest deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly multicell organization is anticipated. Still, locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... CORRECTED GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the central High Plains/southern Plains. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas... Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. This convection may be accompanied by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east, convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to occur. With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should organize -- potentially growing upscale into east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale bows. Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging gusts would likely accompany this convection. As evolution of Day 1 convection, and the associated location of the convectively reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains... As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains. Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts. As such, MRGL risk for gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region. Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area, with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening hours. ...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas... As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development over a broad area. Isolated Colorado Front Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma west-southwestward to the Permian Basin. Relatively modest deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly multicell organization is anticipated. Still, locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... CORRECTED GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the central High Plains/southern Plains. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas... Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. This convection may be accompanied by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east, convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to occur. With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should organize -- potentially growing upscale into east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale bows. Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging gusts would likely accompany this convection. As evolution of Day 1 convection, and the associated location of the convectively reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains... As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains. Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts. As such, MRGL risk for gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region. Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area, with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening hours. ...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas... As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development over a broad area. Isolated Colorado Front Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma west-southwestward to the Permian Basin. Relatively modest deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly multicell organization is anticipated. Still, locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 06/08/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 8 17:57:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are expected from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley/Southeast. Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will also be possibe across portions of the central High Plains/southern Plains. Isolated strong/damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and surrounding areas... Thunderstorms -- in the form of one or more convective clusters -- will likely be ongoing at the start of the period, moving southeastward across the Ozarks vicinity, and possibly eastward into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. This convection may be accompanied by lingering/local risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. As the moist low-level airmass along and south of the west-to-east, convectively reinforced surface boundary heats/destabilizes through the afternoon, reinvigoration or redevelopment of storms near the front and potentially an MCV from prior convection is expected to occur. With 40 to 50 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow across the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee Valley area, storms should organize -- potentially growing upscale into east-southeastward-moving clusters, and potentially small-scale bows. Along with local risk for marginal hail, locally damaging gusts would likely accompany this convection. As evolution of Day 1 convection, and the associated location of the convectively reinforced boundary becomes a bit more clear, upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of the Tennessee Valley vicinity will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks. Meanwhile, MRGL risk appears warranted as far east as the Carolinas, as isolated late-day storms could develop near the boundary, followed by weakening storms spreading eastward overnight from the Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians -- potentially reaching the coast by the end of the period. ...Northern Intermountain Region/northern High Plains... As a weak mid-level short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward from the Pacific Northwest across the Montana vicinity Sunday, modest diurnal destabilization will likely support isolated/afternoon storm development from roughly Idaho to the northern High Plains. Moderate mid-level southwesterly/westerly flow may support a few stronger updrafts, while a dry sub-cloud layer enhances potential for evaporatively enhanced downdrafts. As such, MRGL risk for gusty/damaging winds is being expanded across this region. Southeasterly low-level flow expected across the northern High Plains may support slightly greater storm coverage from parts of southeastern Montana southward into eastern Wyoming, but at this time, will maintain only 5% probability for hail/wind in this area, with storms likely to dissipate nocturnally during the evening hours. ...Central High Plains southeastward into central Texas... As short-wave troughing shifts east-northeastward into the central and southern High Plains area through the day, daytime heating/destabilization is expected to support widely scattered thunderstorm development over a broad area. Isolated Colorado Front Range to Raton Mesa storms are expected to evolve, along with other storm clusters along a weak surface front from Oklahoma west-southwestward to the Permian Basin. Relatively modest deep-layer shear is expected across this area, and thus mainly multicell organization is anticipated. Still, locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail may occur across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. ..Goss.. 06/08/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 8 16:55:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024 Read more