Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of southwestern and central NM this afternoon. More sporadic locally elevated conditions will also remain possible over parts of the central FL Peninsula. However, confidence in sustained winds greater than 10 mph and humidity below 35% remains too low for Elevated Highlights. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 05/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...West TX/NM through tonight... A midlevel low just west of the Four Corners will move slowly eastward to CO/NM by tonight. Cool air in the wake of a recent frontal intrusion will tend to limit lee cyclogenesis and surface heating, especially where elevated convection today reinforces the cool air mass across west TX/northeast NM. However, upslope flow into the higher terrain, along with some cloud breaks from the west and ascent downstream from the midlevel low, will support at least widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening near the higher terrain from NM into west TX. Somewhat greater confidence exists in near-surface-based storm formation later this afternoon near the Davis Mountains, where forecast profiles will favor supercells capable of producing large hail/damaging winds. Confidence in either storm coverage and/or intensity is a bit lower farther north into NM, where the MRGL risk area is being maintained (largely due to a little weaker buoyancy compared to the Trans-Pecos/Davis Mountains). Storms that form this afternoon could persist farther east as elevated convection into tonight with a low-end hail threat. Otherwise, storms that form near the high terrain in northeast Mexico could approach the Rio Grande before moving into TX and weakening late this evening. ...Upper OH Valley this afternoon/evening... A well-defined shortwave trough will move east-southeastward over eastern OH/western PA/northern WV this afternoon. Weak destabilization in the wake of a band of ascent/rain may become sufficient for surface-based thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of eastern OH/northwest WV into western PA later this afternoon/evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures, surface temperatures near 60 F and dewpoints near 50 F will support SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg, coincident with modestly long hodographs for a few organized storm structures. Isolated wind damage will be the main threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated hail approaching 1 inch in diameter. ...Northeast ND/northwest MN later this afternoon/evening... Within northwest flow aloft, a shortwave trough will progress southeastward from SK to southeast MB by late evening, as an associated cold front approaches the international border. Though low-level moisture is limited, surface heating/mixing ahead of the front and a surface trough could be sufficient for weak surface-based buoyancy and low-topped convection by late afternoon/evening. Given inverted-V profiles and some increase in midlevel flow, strong outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...Southwest Texas and central/southeast New Mexico... An upper-level low over the Southwest Deserts will progress generally eastward, evolving into a positive-tilt upper wave as it crosses the Four Corners region through tonight. A stalled front near the Mexico/New Mexico mountains will slowly move/redevelop northeastward, with moist low-level upslope flow across the Rio Grande region, Transpecos, and into the interior New Mexico mountains and higher terrain. In these areas, surface dewpoints will generally range from upper 40s/lower 50s across New Mexico to lower/middle 60s F southeastward toward the Texas Edwards Plateau/Rio Grande vicinity. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will exist atop this relatively moist boundary layer, contributing to potentially 500 J/kg MLCAPE across interior New Mexico and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across far west/southwest Texas. The potential persistence of multi-layer cloud cover east/northeast of the mountains/higher terrain should spatially relegate the potential for surface-based storms to the more immediate near-mountain areas, Transpecos, and Rio Grande vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible where adequate destabilization does occur. At least isolated storms are forecast to develop this afternoon in the aforementioned upslope/differential-heating favored areas. The environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop, especially across the Transpecos, with severe hail possible as far north as northern New Mexico in a more modest instability regime. Some stronger wind gusts may also occur, and a brief tornado is possible. Additional storms could develop eastward across the Rio Grande during the evening. Storms will otherwise trend more elevated this evening as they progress eastward away from higher terrain. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected into the afternoon in association with a southeastward-moving cold front, ahead of a clipper-type shortwave trough. The near-frontal preceding air mass will only be modestly moist (40s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited. However, sufficient heating and destabilization may allow for a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or gusty winds. While organized severe storms do not appear overly likely, this potential will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...Southwest Texas and central/southeast New Mexico... An upper-level low over the Southwest Deserts will progress generally eastward, evolving into a positive-tilt upper wave as it crosses the Four Corners region through tonight. A stalled front near the Mexico/New Mexico mountains will slowly move/redevelop northeastward, with moist low-level upslope flow across the Rio Grande region, Transpecos, and into the interior New Mexico mountains and higher terrain. In these areas, surface dewpoints will generally range from upper 40s/lower 50s across New Mexico to lower/middle 60s F southeastward toward the Texas Edwards Plateau/Rio Grande vicinity. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will exist atop this relatively moist boundary layer, contributing to potentially 500 J/kg MLCAPE across interior New Mexico and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across far west/southwest Texas. The potential persistence of multi-layer cloud cover east/northeast of the mountains/higher terrain should spatially relegate the potential for surface-based storms to the more immediate near-mountain areas, Transpecos, and Rio Grande vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible where adequate destabilization does occur. At least isolated storms are forecast to develop this afternoon in the aforementioned upslope/differential-heating favored areas. The environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop, especially across the Transpecos, with severe hail possible as far north as northern New Mexico in a more modest instability regime. Some stronger wind gusts may also occur, and a brief tornado is possible. Additional storms could develop eastward across the Rio Grande during the evening. Storms will otherwise trend more elevated this evening as they progress eastward away from higher terrain. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected into the afternoon in association with a southeastward-moving cold front, ahead of a clipper-type shortwave trough. The near-frontal preceding air mass will only be modestly moist (40s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited. However, sufficient heating and destabilization may allow for a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or gusty winds. While organized severe storms do not appear overly likely, this potential will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...Southwest Texas and central/southeast New Mexico... An upper-level low over the Southwest Deserts will progress generally eastward, evolving into a positive-tilt upper wave as it crosses the Four Corners region through tonight. A stalled front near the Mexico/New Mexico mountains will slowly move/redevelop northeastward, with moist low-level upslope flow across the Rio Grande region, Transpecos, and into the interior New Mexico mountains and higher terrain. In these areas, surface dewpoints will generally range from upper 40s/lower 50s across New Mexico to lower/middle 60s F southeastward toward the Texas Edwards Plateau/Rio Grande vicinity. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will exist atop this relatively moist boundary layer, contributing to potentially 500 J/kg MLCAPE across interior New Mexico and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across far west/southwest Texas. The potential persistence of multi-layer cloud cover east/northeast of the mountains/higher terrain should spatially relegate the potential for surface-based storms to the more immediate near-mountain areas, Transpecos, and Rio Grande vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible where adequate destabilization does occur. At least isolated storms are forecast to develop this afternoon in the aforementioned upslope/differential-heating favored areas. The environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop, especially across the Transpecos, with severe hail possible as far north as northern New Mexico in a more modest instability regime. Some stronger wind gusts may also occur, and a brief tornado is possible. Additional storms could develop eastward across the Rio Grande during the evening. Storms will otherwise trend more elevated this evening as they progress eastward away from higher terrain. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected into the afternoon in association with a southeastward-moving cold front, ahead of a clipper-type shortwave trough. The near-frontal preceding air mass will only be modestly moist (40s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited. However, sufficient heating and destabilization may allow for a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or gusty winds. While organized severe storms do not appear overly likely, this potential will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...Southwest Texas and central/southeast New Mexico... An upper-level low over the Southwest Deserts will progress generally eastward, evolving into a positive-tilt upper wave as it crosses the Four Corners region through tonight. A stalled front near the Mexico/New Mexico mountains will slowly move/redevelop northeastward, with moist low-level upslope flow across the Rio Grande region, Transpecos, and into the interior New Mexico mountains and higher terrain. In these areas, surface dewpoints will generally range from upper 40s/lower 50s across New Mexico to lower/middle 60s F southeastward toward the Texas Edwards Plateau/Rio Grande vicinity. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will exist atop this relatively moist boundary layer, contributing to potentially 500 J/kg MLCAPE across interior New Mexico and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across far west/southwest Texas. The potential persistence of multi-layer cloud cover east/northeast of the mountains/higher terrain should spatially relegate the potential for surface-based storms to the more immediate near-mountain areas, Transpecos, and Rio Grande vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible where adequate destabilization does occur. At least isolated storms are forecast to develop this afternoon in the aforementioned upslope/differential-heating favored areas. The environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop, especially across the Transpecos, with severe hail possible as far north as northern New Mexico in a more modest instability regime. Some stronger wind gusts may also occur, and a brief tornado is possible. Additional storms could develop eastward across the Rio Grande during the evening. Storms will otherwise trend more elevated this evening as they progress eastward away from higher terrain. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected into the afternoon in association with a southeastward-moving cold front, ahead of a clipper-type shortwave trough. The near-frontal preceding air mass will only be modestly moist (40s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited. However, sufficient heating and destabilization may allow for a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or gusty winds. While organized severe storms do not appear overly likely, this potential will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central/southeast New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. Large hail and strong wind gusts may occur. ...Southwest Texas and central/southeast New Mexico... An upper-level low over the Southwest Deserts will progress generally eastward, evolving into a positive-tilt upper wave as it crosses the Four Corners region through tonight. A stalled front near the Mexico/New Mexico mountains will slowly move/redevelop northeastward, with moist low-level upslope flow across the Rio Grande region, Transpecos, and into the interior New Mexico mountains and higher terrain. In these areas, surface dewpoints will generally range from upper 40s/lower 50s across New Mexico to lower/middle 60s F southeastward toward the Texas Edwards Plateau/Rio Grande vicinity. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will exist atop this relatively moist boundary layer, contributing to potentially 500 J/kg MLCAPE across interior New Mexico and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across far west/southwest Texas. The potential persistence of multi-layer cloud cover east/northeast of the mountains/higher terrain should spatially relegate the potential for surface-based storms to the more immediate near-mountain areas, Transpecos, and Rio Grande vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible where adequate destabilization does occur. At least isolated storms are forecast to develop this afternoon in the aforementioned upslope/differential-heating favored areas. The environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop, especially across the Transpecos, with severe hail possible as far north as northern New Mexico in a more modest instability regime. Some stronger wind gusts may also occur, and a brief tornado is possible. Additional storms could develop eastward across the Rio Grande during the evening. Storms will otherwise trend more elevated this evening as they progress eastward away from higher terrain. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected into the afternoon in association with a southeastward-moving cold front, ahead of a clipper-type shortwave trough. The near-frontal preceding air mass will only be modestly moist (40s F surface dewpoints) and overall buoyancy will be limited. However, sufficient heating and destabilization may allow for a few stronger storms capable of hail and/or gusty winds. While organized severe storms do not appear overly likely, this potential will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/11/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is expected to extend from the Mid MS Valley through the Lower MS Valley early D4/Tuesday before then gradually progressing eastward through the TN Valley and MS/AL throughout the day. This wave is then forecast to continue progressing eastward through GA, northern FL, and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday. Farther west, another southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move across northern Mexico and into the southern Plains on D5/Wednesday, continuing eastward through the Lower MS Valley on D6/Thursday. Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on D4/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, there is some chance the better low-level moisture and buoyancy will remain displaced south of the better forcing as a result from either thunderstorm development along the coast late Monday night/early Tuesday morning or an overturning of the airmass by a convective line. This uncertainty limits predictability. Low-level moisture is forecast to advect back northward across the southern Plain on D5/Wednesday ahead of the southern-stream shortwave trough mentioned above. Thunderstorms are possible from the TX Panhandle into the Edwards Plateau as ascent attendant to this wave interacts with this moisture and buoyancy. However, vertical shear is currently expected to be fairly modest across much of the region, with the strongest shear expected farther south where convective evolution is less certain. Uncertainty regarding severe coverage is too high to highlight any areas with this outlook. Spread within the guidance increases after D5/Wednesday, with split flow contributing to low-predictability. Even so, the persistence of favorable low-level moisture and buoyancy from TX across the Southeast states suggest some severe potential could materialize from mid-week through the weekend. Read more