Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the Lower MS Valley today, encouraging ample low-level moisture to return northward across portions of the southern Plains to the East Coast. Farther west along the lee of the Rockies into western portions of the Plains, modestly dry conditions will persist, but with a weaker surface wind field. As such, significant wildfire-spread potential should be limited over much of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States into northern/central Florida. ...TN Valley/Southeast States... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from Mid MS Valley south-southwestward through east TX into the northwest Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward across the Lower/Mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and much of the Southeast throughout the day. Enhanced westerly flow aloft will extend throughout the base of this system, gradually spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface low associated with this shortwave will be stacked beneath the upper low throughout much of the period, gradually moving eastward in tandem with the parent shortwave. A weak cold front will extend southward from this surface low. This front is expected to make gradual eastward progress across the TN Valley and Southeast States, likely reaching the southern Piedmont region by early Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in central Gulf Coast vicinity, well ahead of the cold front. Given questions regarding convective evolution overnight Monday, the location, coverage, and intensity of these storms is uncertain. Guidance indicates that the most probable scenario places a decaying convective line in the southern AL/southern GA/FL Panhandle vicinity. This line is then expected to continue eastward, with at least some chance for reintensification during the afternoon with the southern end of the line across the northern FL Peninsula. There is also some chance that a mesoscale convective vortex within the northern portion of the line interacts with a destabilized airmass across southeast GA and eastern SC. In both areas, damaging gusts will be the primary severe risk but a brief tornado or two is also possible. Uncertainty regarding the overall convective evolution merits low severe probabilities (i.e. 5% wind/2% tornado) with this outlook. The early morning convection is not expected to overturn the airmass, with mid to upper 60s likely remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. General expectation is for the airmass across the TN Valley and much of the Southeast to destabilize by the early afternoon amid modest heating of this moist environment. Convergence along the front will be weak, due to veering within the warm sector, and large-scale ascent will be modest, but isolated to widely scattered still appears probable along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. A few stronger mulitcells capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A compact shortwave trough is expected to move into the northern Plains on Tuesday, with another shortwave trough following quickly in its wake from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. This evolution should lead to a sharpening surface lee trough, with eventual cyclogenesis resulting in a low over SD. A few thunderstorms are possible along the lee trough and surface low, but limited buoyancy and modest shear should temper the overall storm strength and duration. ..Mosier.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today from central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southeastern U.S. today, with multiple embedded impulses poised to pivot around the trough an support multiple rounds of thunderstorms this morning into later tonight. Earlier rounds of convection will reinforce a surface baroclinic boundary just north of the I-10 corridor, which may either remain stationary or drift slowly north through the day. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection ahead of the mid-level trough will boost at least elevated buoyancy on both sides of the baroclinic boundary, while cooler mid-level temperatures overspreads the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. Stronger mid-level flow accompanying the cooler temperatures aloft will result in appreciable deep-layer shear coinciding the aforementioned buoyancy, which will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms, spanning from parts of the southern Plains to the FL peninsula through the forecast period. ...Portions of central into eastern TX... Showers and thunderstorms should clear out of central TX through the early to mid-morning hours, allowing for 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates to overspread a moist boundary layer. Though diurnal heating may be limited by cloud cover to a degree, temperatures should rise over 80 F, supporting 2000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE (perhaps locally higher in spots) given the aforementioned dewpoints/lapse rates. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will overspread the region, supporting elongated, straight hodographs supporting splitting supercells as an initial storm mode. Large hail will be the main threat with these storms, with some of the largest stones potentially reaching 2-4 inches in diameter, especially of a more sustained supercell structure can develop. With time though, storms should grow upscale into an MCS later in the afternoon/evening as they interact more favorably with the baroclinic boundary. By this point, severe gusts become the primary threat, with a couple of QLCS tornadoes also possible. ...Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks... Showers and thunderstorms should linger across much of the southern Plains into the Ozarks from the morning to at least mid-afternoon. Weak surface low development is anticipated across MO/AR later in the day, which will encourage modest low-level moisture advection beneath gradually steepening mid-level lapse rates. SBCAPE should rise into the 1000-1500 J/kg range later in the afternoon. Deep-layer shear is not expected to be overly strong, though some elongation of straight hodographs suggests that multicells or brief, transient supercells may develop and produce isolated instances of severe hail or wind. ...The Gulf Coast... The potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms introduces complications to the forecast. Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms, perhaps in the form of an MCS, may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. These storms may be ongoing along or north of a baroclinic boundary, along the eastern periphery of a buoyancy axis, characterized by poor lapse rates but abundant low-level moisture. SBCAPE may be as high as 1500 J/kg as the MCS moves through. Forecast hodographs depict modest low-level curvature and mid-level elongation as the low-level jet passes over the Gulf Coast. As the MCS traverses the baroclinic boundary and ingests locally higher effective SRH, damaging gusts and tornadoes may occur. However, the passage of this first MCS may shunt the baroclinic boundary further south toward the Gulf Coast, which will impact the evolution of subsequent thunderstorm clusters. Should the boundary not be shunted offshore, the TX afternoon thunderstorms, congealing into an MCS, may traverse the boundary and pose a damaging gust/tornado threat along the Gulf Coast during the evening/overnight hours. ...Parts of the Florida Peninsula... At least one of the lead embedded mid-level impulses should traverse the northern FL Peninsula, most likely by afternoon, when surface temperatures will rising into the 80s F amid dewpoints around 70 F. Though mid-level lapse rates will be relatively poor, the strong surface heating of the moist airmass will boost SBCAPE into the 1000-2000 J/kg range amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Multicells and transient supercells are expected to initiate during the afternoon, especially along sea-breeze boundaries, with isolated instances of hail damaging gusts possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 05/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0808 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and locally damaging winds are possible from southeast Texas into Louisiana and southwest Mississippi through tonight. Isolated large hail will remain possible this evening across the Edwards Plateau of Texas. Damaging winds and hail could still occur this evening across northeast Wisconsin toward the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is currently traversing the southern Plains as a second mid-level trough continues to graze the Great Lakes region through this evening. A surface cold front continues to drift southward across the northern Plains and into the central High Plains, serving as a source of convergence for scattered strong thunderstorms. Ahead of the surface front, a low-level jet will become focused over eastern TX into LA and MS, supporting increased lift and destabilization tonight due to warm-air advection. As such, isentropic lift over convective outflow left behind by earlier storms should encourage additional strong storms into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms continue to percolate in intensity over portions of Wisconsin toward Lower Michigan. SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg may support additional strong storms capable of wind and hail (perhaps briefly reaching severe limits) for at least a few more hours. However, nocturnal cooling should result in boundary-layer stabilization, limiting the severe risk to very brief and isolated occurrences. ...Central Plains into the southern High Plains... Strong multicellular storms continue to develop along or near the stationary portion of the surface front across KS into the TX/OK Panhandles. Adequate low-level CAPE colocated with abundant vertical-oriented surface vorticity has supported stronger cells with a history of occasional severe hail and isolated landspouts. The landspout risk should gradually diminish through the evening as diurnal heating wanes and convective overturning from the many ongoing storms reduces buoyancy. Given modest lapse rates over the Plains though, at least an isolated severe wind/hail risk should persist for at least a few more hours. ...Portions of central Texas... An isolated supercell continues to progress south over Irion/Tom Green Counties in central TX, and this storm may continue for a few more hours given the presence of 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and 60+ kts of effective bulk shear. Deep-layer ascent should remain weak through the remainder of the period, with convective coverage expected to remain isolated. However, surface temperatures around 90 F amid low 70s F dewpoints, beneath 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support over 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE to linger over central and southern TX through the evening. Furthermore, strong mid-level flow overspreading this regime support elongated hodographs and 70 kts of effective bulk shear. Should an additional storm develop and become sustained, a supercell with large hail could result, warranting the continuation and expansion of severe probabilities into the evening. ...Eastern Texas toward southern Mississippi... Earlier storms have reinforced a surface baroclinic zone immediately north of the Gulf coast, which will be overspread by a developing low-level jet overnight. Warm-air advection atop this boundary will foster over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 70+ kts of effective bulk shear, which may support multicells and transient supercells capable of producing severe wind and hail through tonight. ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2024 Read more