Severe Storms

MD 1204 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398... FOR A SMALL PORTION OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...a small portion of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398... Valid 082038Z - 082245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398 continues. SUMMARY...A significant severe wind swath possibly beginning around 2230 UTC and spreading east-southeast through 01 UTC into far western KS is forecast. Peak gusts within the evolving severe linear cluster of storms are expected to range from 75-90 mph. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis indicates a moist axis extending westward from western KS into eastern CO near the I-70 corridor. Burlington, CO ASOS (KITR) shows temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s with a lower 60s dewpoint. Modifying the 19 UTC model RAP model run valid for 20 UTC at the nearest forecast sounding location (Goodland, KS) for the Burlington, CO observed surface conditions, yields around 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. Furthermore, the wind profile shows an elongated but "m-shaped" hodograph which will favor precipitation seeding with initially cellular storms currently located north through southwest of the Limon, CO vicinity as of 2030 UTC. As this storm activity moves into a slightly more moist airmass and cold pool development matures, expecting an evolution into a more linear storm mode and increasing severe-gust potential. Several recent time-lagged HRRR model runs support the notion of this corridor being the most favorable for severe gusts. Steep lapse rates and evaporatively cooled downdrafts, coupled with more than adequate mid-level westerly flow, will support severe gusts potentially peaking in the 75-90 mph range during the 2230-0100 UTC period. ..Smith.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39520126 39190111 38820119 38510143 38410182 38850306 39070310 39380299 39710271 39810227 39520126 Read more

WW 0399 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0399 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1203 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082027Z - 082230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the afternoon. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed within the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A cumulus field continues to gradually deepen across far southeast KS into southwestern MO amid modest surface heating, despite the presence of mid to high-level clouds passing over the area. Insolation is aiding the surface layer to approach convective temperatures (upper 80s F), with MLCINH substantially eroding. Deep-layer ascent is weak across the eastern Plains, with no substantial synoptic features evident to mechanically lift buoyant surface-based parcels to their LFC. Therefore, stronger surface heating will be the most likely mechanism for supporting robust convective initiation later this afternoon. Should this occur, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading low 70s F surface dewpoints yields 3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE, contained within deep and wide profiles. Despite modest (i.e. 25-35 kts) of effective bulk shear, 20-30 kts of veering 925-850 mb flow is contributing to modestly curved low-level hodographs. The deep, wide CAPE profiles coinciding the modest notable low-level shear will foster strong updrafts becoming multicellular/transient supercellular, accompanied by a severe hail and wind threat. If a more sustained supercell structure can form, a tornado could occur, though overall confidence in this scenario is low. With details concerning timing of convective initiation and subsequent storm coverage remaining uncertain, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 37539574 37969509 38109354 37779211 37209169 36689196 36589315 36809431 37199531 37539574 Read more

MD 1202 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southeastern Colorado...extreme northeastern New Mexico...extreme southwestern Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle...far northern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081915Z - 082115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms this afternoon, with the greatest chance of storms occurring along a stationary boundary along the TX/OK Panhandles border area. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Upslope flow over the Raton Mesa is contributing to convective initiation, with additional storm development likely as strong surface heating continues along an west-east oriented baroclinic boundary situated near the TX/OK Panhandle border. Surface temperatures near this boundary are approaching 100 F amid 50-60 F surface dewpoints, resulting in the development of a deep boundary layer. RAP forecast soundings show classic inverted-V profiles extending up to 600 mb. 8+ C/km tropospheric lapse rates support thin CAPE profiles, from 600-200 mb, atop the deep boundary layer. Given relatively weak deep-layer shear, mainly pulse-cellular storms with dry microburst potential are expected, with the best chance of storms being along the baroclinic zone. Given the overall isolated coverage of thunderstorms and associated severe gust potential, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37220483 37460352 37390139 36980038 36340010 35890039 35750095 35840179 35920287 36070357 36390430 37220483 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A broad mid-level sub-tropical ridge, stretching from the north-central Gulf Coast northwestward into British Columbia, will reorient itself early next week as strong, zonal mid-level flow overspreads the Pacific Northwest-Canadian border, and a series of mid-level troughs carve out a weak eastern US trough. By midweek, this subtropical ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico and far West Texas. To the west of the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge, a mid-level cut-off low will be located off the southern coast of California. As this low opens and lifts northeast late next week into next weekend, an increase in fire weather conditions is likely to occur. As of now, the most likely area to experience critical fire weather conditions is western New Mexico and eastern Arizona on Day 7 or 8. Probabilities have been introduced for this potential on Day 8 where confidence is little greater, although the exact area will likely shift around between now and next weekend. The strong mid-level flow across the northern United States may bring elevated meteorological fire-weather conditions across the northern US Rockies. The limiting factor will be fuel receptiveness. ..Marsh.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm activity has begun across the central High Plains this afternoon. The Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly further west into the Denver metro and vicinity to account for latest trends in thunderstorm development and potential for damaging winds and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to continue to increase in coverage across the central High Plains and central Plains through the afternoon. Mode is expected to become linear downstream, with potential for bowing segments capable of potentially significant winds up to 75-85 mph. Adjustments were made to bring the Slight Risk further south into northern Oklahoma and to expand the Marginal risk in northern Oklahoma and northern Kansas, given uncertainty in the evolution of the potential MCS. A very unstable air mass is progged to be in place across northern Oklahoma, which may support further southward development along the southern flank of the eastward moving MCS late tonight. Otherwise, the Enhanced area remains unchanged with this outlook. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024/ ...Central Plains... Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into western/central KS. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe, with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in southwest/central KS with this update. ...Missouri and Vicinity... A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion to the Slight Risk in southern MO. ...Oregon... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening. With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited. Read more