Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies while another mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Great Lakes today. High pressure and associated cooler surface temperatures will overspread the southeastern U.S. while portions of the Northeast and southern High Plains experience appreciable rainfall accumulations. As such, wildfire spread conditions should be limited over most of the CONUS, with a few exceptions. The passage of the mid-level trough over the Southwest will encourage 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds and 10-20 percent RH to overspread dry fuels for at least a few hours during the afternoon, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. Across southern New Mexico, a couple instances of dry lightning could accompany high-based thunderstorms during the afternoon as well, though confidence in this scenario was not high enough to introduce isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions are also possible across portions of the central Florida Peninsula. However, guidance varies greatly in term of the extent of how breezy and dry the ambient conditions will be during the afternoon, with Elevated highlights withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential is possible over the central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon hours. ..Squitieri.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central and southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico through the southern Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward through the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX early Sunday morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread northeastward throughout the day, with the associated cloudiness limiting heating and destabilization. Some clearing is anticipated west of this area of precipitation, with some modest low-level moisture advection anticipated as well. This will likely result in a narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly with southern extent, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Additionally, there is a chance for some of the storms on the southern edge of the warm-air advection shield to trend towards becoming surface based during the evening as the surface dewpoints climb into the low 70s. Southeasterly surface winds and interaction with the warm front could support storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. ...Upper Michigan into the Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through Upper MI and the Upper Midwest. Temperatures across the region will likely climb into the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, with dewpoints likely mixing into the low 50s/upper 40s. Even with this limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Weak vertical shear and the progressive nature of the front should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character with a limited severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central and southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico through the southern Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward through the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX early Sunday morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread northeastward throughout the day, with the associated cloudiness limiting heating and destabilization. Some clearing is anticipated west of this area of precipitation, with some modest low-level moisture advection anticipated as well. This will likely result in a narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly with southern extent, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Additionally, there is a chance for some of the storms on the southern edge of the warm-air advection shield to trend towards becoming surface based during the evening as the surface dewpoints climb into the low 70s. Southeasterly surface winds and interaction with the warm front could support storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. ...Upper Michigan into the Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through Upper MI and the Upper Midwest. Temperatures across the region will likely climb into the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, with dewpoints likely mixing into the low 50s/upper 40s. Even with this limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Weak vertical shear and the progressive nature of the front should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character with a limited severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central and southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico through the southern Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward through the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX early Sunday morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread northeastward throughout the day, with the associated cloudiness limiting heating and destabilization. Some clearing is anticipated west of this area of precipitation, with some modest low-level moisture advection anticipated as well. This will likely result in a narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly with southern extent, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Additionally, there is a chance for some of the storms on the southern edge of the warm-air advection shield to trend towards becoming surface based during the evening as the surface dewpoints climb into the low 70s. Southeasterly surface winds and interaction with the warm front could support storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. ...Upper Michigan into the Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through Upper MI and the Upper Midwest. Temperatures across the region will likely climb into the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, with dewpoints likely mixing into the low 50s/upper 40s. Even with this limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Weak vertical shear and the progressive nature of the front should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character with a limited severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central and southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico through the southern Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward through the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX early Sunday morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread northeastward throughout the day, with the associated cloudiness limiting heating and destabilization. Some clearing is anticipated west of this area of precipitation, with some modest low-level moisture advection anticipated as well. This will likely result in a narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly with southern extent, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Additionally, there is a chance for some of the storms on the southern edge of the warm-air advection shield to trend towards becoming surface based during the evening as the surface dewpoints climb into the low 70s. Southeasterly surface winds and interaction with the warm front could support storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. ...Upper Michigan into the Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through Upper MI and the Upper Midwest. Temperatures across the region will likely climb into the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, with dewpoints likely mixing into the low 50s/upper 40s. Even with this limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Weak vertical shear and the progressive nature of the front should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character with a limited severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central and southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico through the southern Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward through the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX early Sunday morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread northeastward throughout the day, with the associated cloudiness limiting heating and destabilization. Some clearing is anticipated west of this area of precipitation, with some modest low-level moisture advection anticipated as well. This will likely result in a narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly with southern extent, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Additionally, there is a chance for some of the storms on the southern edge of the warm-air advection shield to trend towards becoming surface based during the evening as the surface dewpoints climb into the low 70s. Southeasterly surface winds and interaction with the warm front could support storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. ...Upper Michigan into the Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through Upper MI and the Upper Midwest. Temperatures across the region will likely climb into the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, with dewpoints likely mixing into the low 50s/upper 40s. Even with this limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Weak vertical shear and the progressive nature of the front should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character with a limited severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central and southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana on Sunday. ...Southern Plains... A positively tilted shortwave trough will likely extend from the central Rockies to the southern NM/AZ border early Sunday morning, accompanied by moderate mid-level flow throughout its base from northern Mexico through the southern Plains. This shortwave is forecast to gradually shift eastward across the central/southern High Plains throughout the day on Sunday, reaching the central and southern Plains by early Monday. The accompanying mid-level flow will also spread eastward through the Lower MS Valley and into the Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle eastward into western/central OK and southeastward into east/southeast TX early Sunday morning, supported by persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to spread northeastward throughout the day, with the associated cloudiness limiting heating and destabilization. Some clearing is anticipated west of this area of precipitation, with some modest low-level moisture advection anticipated as well. This will likely result in a narrow corridor airmass destabilization between the cloudiness to the east and the dryline approaching from the west. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible within this corridor, supported by both increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave as well as low-level convergence along and ahead of the dryline. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly with southern extent, with large hail as the primary severe risk. Additionally, there is a chance for some of the storms on the southern edge of the warm-air advection shield to trend towards becoming surface based during the evening as the surface dewpoints climb into the low 70s. Southeasterly surface winds and interaction with the warm front could support storms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. ...Upper Michigan into the Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough and associated surface low are forecast to move across far northwestern Ontario on Sunday. An attendant cold front is expected to move southeastward through Upper MI and the Upper Midwest. Temperatures across the region will likely climb into the upper 70s/low 80s ahead of the front, with dewpoints likely mixing into the low 50s/upper 40s. Even with this limited low-level moisture, cold mid-level temperatures will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for isolated thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Weak vertical shear and the progressive nature of the front should result in brief, more pulse-like storm character with a limited severe potential. ..Mosier.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central New Mexico into southwest Texas. Hail and strong gusts may accompany this activity. ...Southwest Texas into Central New Mexico... An upper low over the Southwest U.S. will pivot east across the Four Corners vicinity by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend west to east across south-central TX. Low-level easterly flow will allow for some modest moistening (dewpoints upper 40s to upper 50s) across far southwest TX into eastern NM. Steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for modest destabilization, with MUCAPE values forecast from 500-1500 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible. Isolated storms are forecast to develop in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. However, convection may largely be elevated to the cool side of the somewhat nebulous surface boundary across southwest/south-central TX. Nevertheless, this environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop. Additional cells may form near the central mountains in NM, also posing a risk for marginally severe hail. Deeper boundary-layer mixing and little capping across this area also may support locally strong gusts. Additional storms may develop eastward across northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande during the evening. Any storms closer to the Rio Grande may become surface-based as they will be in closer proximity to the surface boundary and richer low-level moisture. Some risk for locally strong gusts in addition to hail will accompany this activity, should it cross the Rio Grande. As such, the Marginal risk has been expanded southward. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central New Mexico into southwest Texas. Hail and strong gusts may accompany this activity. ...Southwest Texas into Central New Mexico... An upper low over the Southwest U.S. will pivot east across the Four Corners vicinity by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend west to east across south-central TX. Low-level easterly flow will allow for some modest moistening (dewpoints upper 40s to upper 50s) across far southwest TX into eastern NM. Steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for modest destabilization, with MUCAPE values forecast from 500-1500 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible. Isolated storms are forecast to develop in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. However, convection may largely be elevated to the cool side of the somewhat nebulous surface boundary across southwest/south-central TX. Nevertheless, this environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop. Additional cells may form near the central mountains in NM, also posing a risk for marginally severe hail. Deeper boundary-layer mixing and little capping across this area also may support locally strong gusts. Additional storms may develop eastward across northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande during the evening. Any storms closer to the Rio Grande may become surface-based as they will be in closer proximity to the surface boundary and richer low-level moisture. Some risk for locally strong gusts in addition to hail will accompany this activity, should it cross the Rio Grande. As such, the Marginal risk has been expanded southward. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central New Mexico into southwest Texas. Hail and strong gusts may accompany this activity. ...Southwest Texas into Central New Mexico... An upper low over the Southwest U.S. will pivot east across the Four Corners vicinity by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend west to east across south-central TX. Low-level easterly flow will allow for some modest moistening (dewpoints upper 40s to upper 50s) across far southwest TX into eastern NM. Steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for modest destabilization, with MUCAPE values forecast from 500-1500 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible. Isolated storms are forecast to develop in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. However, convection may largely be elevated to the cool side of the somewhat nebulous surface boundary across southwest/south-central TX. Nevertheless, this environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop. Additional cells may form near the central mountains in NM, also posing a risk for marginally severe hail. Deeper boundary-layer mixing and little capping across this area also may support locally strong gusts. Additional storms may develop eastward across northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande during the evening. Any storms closer to the Rio Grande may become surface-based as they will be in closer proximity to the surface boundary and richer low-level moisture. Some risk for locally strong gusts in addition to hail will accompany this activity, should it cross the Rio Grande. As such, the Marginal risk has been expanded southward. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central New Mexico into southwest Texas. Hail and strong gusts may accompany this activity. ...Southwest Texas into Central New Mexico... An upper low over the Southwest U.S. will pivot east across the Four Corners vicinity by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend west to east across south-central TX. Low-level easterly flow will allow for some modest moistening (dewpoints upper 40s to upper 50s) across far southwest TX into eastern NM. Steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for modest destabilization, with MUCAPE values forecast from 500-1500 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible. Isolated storms are forecast to develop in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. However, convection may largely be elevated to the cool side of the somewhat nebulous surface boundary across southwest/south-central TX. Nevertheless, this environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop. Additional cells may form near the central mountains in NM, also posing a risk for marginally severe hail. Deeper boundary-layer mixing and little capping across this area also may support locally strong gusts. Additional storms may develop eastward across northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande during the evening. Any storms closer to the Rio Grande may become surface-based as they will be in closer proximity to the surface boundary and richer low-level moisture. Some risk for locally strong gusts in addition to hail will accompany this activity, should it cross the Rio Grande. As such, the Marginal risk has been expanded southward. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central New Mexico into southwest Texas. Hail and strong gusts may accompany this activity. ...Southwest Texas into Central New Mexico... An upper low over the Southwest U.S. will pivot east across the Four Corners vicinity by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend west to east across south-central TX. Low-level easterly flow will allow for some modest moistening (dewpoints upper 40s to upper 50s) across far southwest TX into eastern NM. Steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for modest destabilization, with MUCAPE values forecast from 500-1500 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible. Isolated storms are forecast to develop in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. However, convection may largely be elevated to the cool side of the somewhat nebulous surface boundary across southwest/south-central TX. Nevertheless, this environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop. Additional cells may form near the central mountains in NM, also posing a risk for marginally severe hail. Deeper boundary-layer mixing and little capping across this area also may support locally strong gusts. Additional storms may develop eastward across northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande during the evening. Any storms closer to the Rio Grande may become surface-based as they will be in closer proximity to the surface boundary and richer low-level moisture. Some risk for locally strong gusts in addition to hail will accompany this activity, should it cross the Rio Grande. As such, the Marginal risk has been expanded southward. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central New Mexico into southwest Texas. Hail and strong gusts may accompany this activity. ...Southwest Texas into Central New Mexico... An upper low over the Southwest U.S. will pivot east across the Four Corners vicinity by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend west to east across south-central TX. Low-level easterly flow will allow for some modest moistening (dewpoints upper 40s to upper 50s) across far southwest TX into eastern NM. Steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for modest destabilization, with MUCAPE values forecast from 500-1500 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible. Isolated storms are forecast to develop in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. However, convection may largely be elevated to the cool side of the somewhat nebulous surface boundary across southwest/south-central TX. Nevertheless, this environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop. Additional cells may form near the central mountains in NM, also posing a risk for marginally severe hail. Deeper boundary-layer mixing and little capping across this area also may support locally strong gusts. Additional storms may develop eastward across northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande during the evening. Any storms closer to the Rio Grande may become surface-based as they will be in closer proximity to the surface boundary and richer low-level moisture. Some risk for locally strong gusts in addition to hail will accompany this activity, should it cross the Rio Grande. As such, the Marginal risk has been expanded southward. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

MD 0750 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0750 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 110012Z - 110115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated damaging gust could accompany any ongoing storms over the next few hours, and a waterspout cannot be ruled out along coastal areas. The severe risk should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is currently traversing the Big Bend area of northern FL amid a warm and moist low-level airmass. Surface temperatures in the low 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints yield over 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE on the cool side of a residual baroclinic boundary, where storm maturation could occur. Given the presence of 50+ kt effective bulk shear values (driven by elongated hodographs with modest low-level curvature), transient supercells may develop from the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms. Confidence in this scenario is modest at best. However, any storm that can mature in this environment could produce a damaging gust or two, and a waterspout could also form close to the coastline. The best chance for a gust or waterspout would be in the next few hours, before nocturnal cooling will support boundary layer stabilization and a decrease in thunderstorm potential. Since the severe threat should be sparse at best, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30168460 30068314 29558184 28968114 28448124 28108182 28008230 28138271 28688320 29358374 29718439 30168460 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue across the coastal Carolinas for another couple of hours this evening before moving offshore. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over north or central Florida this evening, posing a risk for gusty winds and hail. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been lowered and trimmed with 01z update to focus on isolated thunderstorms across the coastal Carolinas. These storms will move offshore over the next couple of hours, but may briefly produce gusty winds or marginal hail before doing so. A couple of storms may develop inland across northern/central Florida this evening/overnight. While potential appears low given weak low-level convergence, if a storm can develop and be sustained, 00z RAOBs from JAX and TBW indicate an environment capable of supporting strong gusts and hail. the Marginal risk will be maintained for this condition risk. The Marginal risk has been removed from the Upper Midwest where only weak convection has been ongoing this evening. With loss of daytime heating, any strong gust potential should further wane over the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue across the coastal Carolinas for another couple of hours this evening before moving offshore. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over north or central Florida this evening, posing a risk for gusty winds and hail. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been lowered and trimmed with 01z update to focus on isolated thunderstorms across the coastal Carolinas. These storms will move offshore over the next couple of hours, but may briefly produce gusty winds or marginal hail before doing so. A couple of storms may develop inland across northern/central Florida this evening/overnight. While potential appears low given weak low-level convergence, if a storm can develop and be sustained, 00z RAOBs from JAX and TBW indicate an environment capable of supporting strong gusts and hail. the Marginal risk will be maintained for this condition risk. The Marginal risk has been removed from the Upper Midwest where only weak convection has been ongoing this evening. With loss of daytime heating, any strong gust potential should further wane over the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue across the coastal Carolinas for another couple of hours this evening before moving offshore. A couple of thunderstorms may develop over north or central Florida this evening, posing a risk for gusty winds and hail. ...01z Update... Severe probabilities have been lowered and trimmed with 01z update to focus on isolated thunderstorms across the coastal Carolinas. These storms will move offshore over the next couple of hours, but may briefly produce gusty winds or marginal hail before doing so. A couple of storms may develop inland across northern/central Florida this evening/overnight. While potential appears low given weak low-level convergence, if a storm can develop and be sustained, 00z RAOBs from JAX and TBW indicate an environment capable of supporting strong gusts and hail. the Marginal risk will be maintained for this condition risk. The Marginal risk has been removed from the Upper Midwest where only weak convection has been ongoing this evening. With loss of daytime heating, any strong gust potential should further wane over the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 Read more