Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

MD 1213 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 1213 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...south-central and southeast Kansas. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400... Valid 090645Z - 090815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 400 continues. SUMMARY...The severe wind threat will continue through the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...A long-lived line of severe wind producing thunderstorms continues east across south-central Kansas. Recent gusts of 50 knots in Pratt, KS and 51 knots near Medicine Lodge, KS have been observed and radar trends suggest the severe wind threat may have increased recently with 50 to 60 knots of base velocity sampled by KICT. This is likely related to the strengthening low-level jet (now near 50 knots on the VNX VWP) and the changing orientation of the squall line. This changing orientation (now aligned more normal to the 0-3 km wind shear vector) and the presence of multiple outflow boundaries from the line of storms across east-central Kansas, may increase the tornado threat for a few hours as ingestion of low-level streamwise vorticity is favored. A recent 50 knot wind gust was observed on the Woods County, OK mesonet as the outflow boundary passed, outside of the convection. This indicates the strength of the cold pool which as developed. Given this mature cold pool and a reservoir of mid 70s dewpoints which remain across south-central and southeast Kansas, this line of storms may persist with a severe wind threat through the morning as it moves east. The NWS in Wichita will locally extend watch 400 for areas east of Wichita to cover this threat. ..Bentley.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37139839 37339867 37829874 38129873 38349769 38289559 38009486 37499460 37099481 37029639 37139839 Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PNC TO 15 S HUT TO 30 WNW HUT TO 25 ENE RSL. ..BENTLEY..06/09/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-079-099-113-115-125-133-155- 159-169-173-191-205-207-090840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY LABETTE MCPHERSON MARION MONTGOMERY NEOSHO RENO RICE SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PNC TO 15 S HUT TO 30 WNW HUT TO 25 ENE RSL. ..BENTLEY..06/09/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-079-099-113-115-125-133-155- 159-169-173-191-205-207-090840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY LABETTE MCPHERSON MARION MONTGOMERY NEOSHO RENO RICE SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0400 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PNC TO 15 S HUT TO 30 WNW HUT TO 25 ENE RSL. ..BENTLEY..06/09/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 400 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-079-099-113-115-125-133-155- 159-169-173-191-205-207-090840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY LABETTE MCPHERSON MARION MONTGOMERY NEOSHO RENO RICE SALINE SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 400 SEVERE TSTM KS 090050Z - 090800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 400 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 750 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Kansas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 750 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move east across the watch area this evening and overnight, with a risk for significant damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph and very large hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles west of Garden City KS to 20 miles north of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398...WW 399... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... An ill-defined shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern Plain on Tuesday. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast across much Texas and Oklahoma. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across parts of this moist airmass. Thunderstorm development will be most likely along residual outflow boundaries, and in areas where instability becomes locally maximized. Although the models are not focused on any particular area across the southern Plains, there is agreement that at least one or two convective clusters could develop and persist for several hours during the afternoon and evening. Across most of the moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. Although low to mid-level flow will be somewhat weak, winds are forecast to veer with height over much of the region. This directional shear could be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats during the late afternoon and early evening, as instability maximizes. A convective cluster, associated with a localized severe threat, could persist into the mid to late evening. ..Broyles.. 06/09/2024 Read more