Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of isolated severe hail and damaging wind potential exists today from parts of the Northwest into the High Plains, southern Plains, and lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. A relatively greater severe threat may exist this afternoon and early evening across parts of Arkansas, southwest Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... A MCV is present over southern MO/northern AR late this morning. Outflow from this activity has spread south of the remnant ongoing convection into central AR and far western TN. A very moist low-level airmass across the lower MS Valley will continue to destabilize as strong diurnal heating occurs through the afternoon. Moderate to strong instability will likely develop across parts of AR, western TN, and northern MS, with MLCAPE values potentially reaching around 2000-3500 J/kg. Stronger mid-level flow will tend to remain displaced to the north of the warm sector today across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast in association with an upper trough/low centered over eastern Canada. Still, some enhancement to the mid-level flow due to the MCV, with gradually strengthening west-northwesterly winds at mid/upper levels, should support sufficient deep-layer shear for thunderstorm organization. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the outflow boundary in northern/central AR this afternoon, and subsequently spread east-southeastward over parts of southwest TN, northern MS, and perhaps northern/central AL through the evening. Multicell clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph. Isolated hail may also occur with any marginal supercell structures that can be maintained. Convection should gradually weaken through the evening across the Deep South as it encounters a less unstable airmass and increasing MLCIN. A separate MCV is apparent over the western Carolinas based on recent visible satellite imagery. As this feature moves eastward, it may encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop through the day across parts of NC/SC. While this region will be on the southern periphery of stronger mid-level flow, sufficient deep-layer shear should be present to support modest updraft organization. Isolated hail and strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores that can develop. But, generally weak instability should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated. ...Southern/Central High Plains... With weak east-northeasterly low-level upslope flow persisting today, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies. Additional convective development is anticipated across parts of the southern Plains in the vicinity of a convectively reinforced front extending from parts of west TX into southern/eastern OK. Generally modest flow is forecast over much of these areas, which should limit thunderstorm organization to some extent. Still, a moist and moderately unstable airmass should be in place along/south of the front, and in a narrow corridor across the High Plains. Where low-level lapse rates can become steepened though daytime heating/mixing of the boundary layer, isolated severe wind gusts may occur with pulse convection and loosely organized multicell clusters. Hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to support a more organized severe threat across these regions. ...Interior Northwest into the Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge extends from the Southwest/Four Corners region into the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today from parts of eastern OR to the northern High Plains on the periphery of this upper ridge. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow may support some convective organization. A deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v type soundings should foster an isolated threat for severe wind gusts with the strongest downdrafts. With somewhat greater low-level moisture and instability present, occasional hail may also occur over the northern High Plains as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 06/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak midlevel ridge will remain in place across the southern Rockies into the Southwest, favoring continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western periphery of the ridge, a subtle midlevel impulse will track northeastward, weakening the ridge and promoting a modest surface pressure gradient across southern AZ, southern NM, and the western Trans-Pecos -- west of a weak lee cyclone over southwest TX. As a result, breezy (15-20 mph) sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will overlap single-digit to lower-teens RH, favoring elevated fire-weather conditions across these areas. The aforementioned impulse will also support mixed wet/dry high-based thunderstorms across NM, though ample midlevel moisture and very slow storm motions should support wetting rain with most of these storms -- precluding Dry Thunderstorm highlights. Nevertheless, an isolated lightning-induced ignition cannot be ruled out away from the heavier rain cores. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.... ...SUMMARY... Locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Other isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...AR/Northern MS/West TN/Northwest AL... A large but weakening MCS is present this morning over central/southern MO. The associated surface outflow boundary extends from northwest OK into far southern MO, and should sag only slowly southward through the day. A very moist air mass is present from the boundary southward across much of AR and into west TN/northern MS/northern AL with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Strong heating in this zone should result in afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Present indication are that scattered thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the remnant boundary over northern AR and track southeastward across the SLGT risk area. Low level winds are rather weak, but strong west-northwesterly flow aloft will promote organized multicell or a few supercell storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Activity may remain intense into western AL during the evening before weakening in a more stable air mass. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A rather large upper ridge is present today over the southwest states, with widespread mid-level moisture evident on water vapor imagery under the ridge. Strong heating will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central NM/CO/WY, propagating slowly eastward into the adjacent high Plains during the late afternoon. Weak winds aloft will limit organization. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE will pose some risk of high-based thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging winds and some hail. ...Northern Great Basin into MT/WY... Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from portions of eastern OR into ID/MT/WY. This region is along the southern fringe of stronger anti-cyclonic westerly flow, and is characterized by inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. A few of the storms will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind and hail through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.... ...SUMMARY... Locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Other isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...AR/Northern MS/West TN/Northwest AL... A large but weakening MCS is present this morning over central/southern MO. The associated surface outflow boundary extends from northwest OK into far southern MO, and should sag only slowly southward through the day. A very moist air mass is present from the boundary southward across much of AR and into west TN/northern MS/northern AL with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Strong heating in this zone should result in afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Present indication are that scattered thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the remnant boundary over northern AR and track southeastward across the SLGT risk area. Low level winds are rather weak, but strong west-northwesterly flow aloft will promote organized multicell or a few supercell storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Activity may remain intense into western AL during the evening before weakening in a more stable air mass. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A rather large upper ridge is present today over the southwest states, with widespread mid-level moisture evident on water vapor imagery under the ridge. Strong heating will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central NM/CO/WY, propagating slowly eastward into the adjacent high Plains during the late afternoon. Weak winds aloft will limit organization. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE will pose some risk of high-based thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging winds and some hail. ...Northern Great Basin into MT/WY... Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from portions of eastern OR into ID/MT/WY. This region is along the southern fringe of stronger anti-cyclonic westerly flow, and is characterized by inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. A few of the storms will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind and hail through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.... ...SUMMARY... Locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Other isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...AR/Northern MS/West TN/Northwest AL... A large but weakening MCS is present this morning over central/southern MO. The associated surface outflow boundary extends from northwest OK into far southern MO, and should sag only slowly southward through the day. A very moist air mass is present from the boundary southward across much of AR and into west TN/northern MS/northern AL with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Strong heating in this zone should result in afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Present indication are that scattered thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the remnant boundary over northern AR and track southeastward across the SLGT risk area. Low level winds are rather weak, but strong west-northwesterly flow aloft will promote organized multicell or a few supercell storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Activity may remain intense into western AL during the evening before weakening in a more stable air mass. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A rather large upper ridge is present today over the southwest states, with widespread mid-level moisture evident on water vapor imagery under the ridge. Strong heating will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central NM/CO/WY, propagating slowly eastward into the adjacent high Plains during the late afternoon. Weak winds aloft will limit organization. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE will pose some risk of high-based thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging winds and some hail. ...Northern Great Basin into MT/WY... Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from portions of eastern OR into ID/MT/WY. This region is along the southern fringe of stronger anti-cyclonic westerly flow, and is characterized by inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. A few of the storms will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind and hail through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ARKANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.... ...SUMMARY... Locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Other isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of the central High Plains and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain region and northern High Plains. ...AR/Northern MS/West TN/Northwest AL... A large but weakening MCS is present this morning over central/southern MO. The associated surface outflow boundary extends from northwest OK into far southern MO, and should sag only slowly southward through the day. A very moist air mass is present from the boundary southward across much of AR and into west TN/northern MS/northern AL with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Strong heating in this zone should result in afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Present indication are that scattered thunderstorms will develop in vicinity of the remnant boundary over northern AR and track southeastward across the SLGT risk area. Low level winds are rather weak, but strong west-northwesterly flow aloft will promote organized multicell or a few supercell storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Activity may remain intense into western AL during the evening before weakening in a more stable air mass. ...Southern and Central High Plains... A rather large upper ridge is present today over the southwest states, with widespread mid-level moisture evident on water vapor imagery under the ridge. Strong heating will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of central NM/CO/WY, propagating slowly eastward into the adjacent high Plains during the late afternoon. Weak winds aloft will limit organization. However, a deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE will pose some risk of high-based thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging winds and some hail. ...Northern Great Basin into MT/WY... Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from portions of eastern OR into ID/MT/WY. This region is along the southern fringe of stronger anti-cyclonic westerly flow, and is characterized by inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. A few of the storms will pose a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind and hail through the afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/09/2024 Read more

MD 1215 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1215 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...parts of southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091045Z - 091215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...There is an increased damaging wind threat across parts of southwest Missouri over the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...A confined region of increased damaging/severe wind threat exists along the warm front/outflow boundary across southwest Missouri. Greater than 50 knots of base velocity is being sampled from KSGF across western Greene County at less than 500 ft AGL. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume at least some of this wind is making it to the surface which would result in some damaging wind threat. The longevity of this wind threat remains questionable as its propagation is into the rain-cooled airmass to the east. Additional development/intensification is possible on the southern edge of the ongoing severe warned storm. However, convection in this area has been quite weak thus far, likely due to increasing inhibition with southern extent. Due to the relatively isolated and likely shorter duration of this threat, no watch is anticipated. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF... LAT...LON 37709388 37489275 37209214 36929195 36729209 36749294 36879367 37009400 37199407 37399401 37709388 Read more

MD 1214 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1214 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090751Z - 090915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat will persist this morning. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms with occasional supercellular characteristics have developed across southwest Missouri in a region of weak isentropic ascent and moderate instability. The primary threat will be isolated large hail, with that threat persisting through the early morning hours. The long-lived, severe-wind producing MCS across western Kansas is not anticipated to reach southwest Missouri, at least not with substantial severe potential, given the increasing inhibition and widespread stabilizing convection ahead of the remaining line. Therefore, an isolated large hail threat may persist and necessitate a watch extension for a few more hours. However, an additional watch for storms moving out of Kansas is unlikely, for the aforementioned reasons. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 38299451 38519323 38359203 38059147 37629104 37049105 36449168 36539275 36749368 37179457 38299451 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A low amplitude shortwave ridge is forecast to move across the northern Plains on Wednesday, where a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across parts of this airmass from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward into the mid Missouri Valley. The medium-range models are in reasonable agreement, with moderate deep-layer shear in place across much of the region. This would be favorable for organized storms, with a severe threat possible during the late afternoon and early evening. On Thursday, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. A moist and unstable airmass is forecast to the south of the front. Most models develop moderate instability near and to the south of the front by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the moist airmass, resulting a chance for organized thunderstorms from late afternoon into the evening. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes, as an upper-level trough approaches the northern Plains. Ahead of the trough, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day across the north-central U.S. Based on the latest runs, the greatest potential for severe would be on Sunday in the northern Plains, as the upper-level trough approaches. However, model spread is large during this three day time span, suggesting that severe threat predictability is low. Read more