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1 year 2 months ago
WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RUE
TO 30 ESE RUE TO 25 ENE LIT TO 25 ENE CBM.
WW 401 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224
..DEAN..06/10/24
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC051-053-059-097-105-113-125-127-149-100300-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING
MONTGOMERY PERRY POLK
SALINE SCOTT YELL
MSC011-015-019-025-043-083-087-097-103-105-133-155-159-100300-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA LEFLORE
LOWNDES MONTGOMERY NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA SUNFLOWER WEBSTER
WINSTON
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW RUE
TO 30 ESE RUE TO 25 ENE LIT TO 25 ENE CBM.
WW 401 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 100300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224
..DEAN..06/10/24
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC051-053-059-097-105-113-125-127-149-100300-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING
MONTGOMERY PERRY POLK
SALINE SCOTT YELL
MSC011-015-019-025-043-083-087-097-103-105-133-155-159-100300-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLAY GRENADA LEFLORE
LOWNDES MONTGOMERY NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA SUNFLOWER WEBSTER
WINSTON
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 401 SEVERE TSTM AR MS TN 092100Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Arkansas
Northern Mississippi
Far Southwest Tennessee
* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop and intensify
late this afternoon and early evening while spreading slowly
east-southeastward. Damaging winds of 55-70 mph may occur with any
clusters, while severe hail of 1-2 inches in diameter appears
possible with any discrete cells that can be maintained.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of
Russellville AR to 10 miles north northeast of Columbus MS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30030.
...Gleason
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
MD 1223 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401...402... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AL...NORTHERN MS...AND SOUTHEASTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 1223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Areas affected...Portions of northern AL...northern MS...and
southeastern AR
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401...402...
Valid 100019Z - 100145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 401, 402
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk of isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts
continues across parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watches 401 and 402.
DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
from parts of southeastern AR eastward into northern AL -- generally
focused along a sagging frontal boundary. While a warm/moist
boundary layer and around 30-35 kt of unidirectional westerly
deep-layer shear (per regional VWP) continue to support
organized/transient supercell structures and small clusters, there
has been a tendency for storms to be undercut by the
southward-sagging boundary and outflow -- given the westerly storm
motions and shear. This suggests that isolated large hail (up to 1.5
inches) will be the primary threat with any organized/sustained
storms, though locally damaging gusts are also possible.
..Weinman.. 06/10/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34139144 34369187 34599194 34809169 34739093 34478959
34308735 34268629 34118606 33738601 33468610 33258654
33218725 33478895 33739021 34139144
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
MD 1222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NC...NORTHWESTERN SC...AND FAR NORTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Areas affected...Portions of southwestern NC...northwestern SC...and
far northeast GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 092349Z - 100145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are
possible through around 02Z. A watch is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is evolving along the leading edge
of antecedent outflow over western NC as of 2340Z, though
organization has been limited thus far. As these storms continue
east-southeastward through around 02Z, there is some potential for
the development of a loosely organized cluster (and perhaps
transient supercell structures), given a warm/moist pre-convective
boundary layer and around 40-50 kt of unidirectional effective
shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates (contributing to a
weak/skinny buoyancy profile), limited large-scale ascent, and
time-of-day may tend to limit overall intensity/organization of
storms. Nevertheless, locally damaging gusts (45-60 mph) and
marginally severe hail (to near 1 inch) cannot be ruled out.
Additional strong/loosely organized cellular development is also
possible trailing southwestward into far northeastern GA, with a
localized risk for strong gusts and marginally severe hail.
Currently, the severe threat appears too localized and marginal for
a watch, though convective trends will be monitored.
..Weinman/Bunting.. 06/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 35338029 35578066 35688112 35678147 35458196 35278254
35068346 34968389 34748406 34508405 34318369 34288337
34338284 34218241 33928163 33878089 34258034 34638013
34988006 35338029
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 402
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
..WEINMAN..06/10/24
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 402
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC001-007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-043-047-051-055-057-
063-065-073-075-081-091-093-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-
127-133-100240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT
CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE
CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE
COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS
ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LAMAR LEE MARENGO
MARION PERRY PICKENS
RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY
SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RUE TO
45 WSW MEM TO 35 SW MSL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
..WEINMAN..06/10/24
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-041-051-053-059-069-077-079-083-085-095-097-105-107-113-
117-119-125-127-149-100240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS DESHA GARLAND
GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON
LEE LINCOLN LOGAN
LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY PHILLIPS POLK
PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE
SCOTT YELL
MSC011-013-015-017-019-025-027-043-057-071-081-083-087-095-097-
103-105-107-115-119-133-135-137-143-145-155-159-161-100240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL
CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAY
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OR INTO SOUTHWEST ID AND EXTREME NORTHERN NV
Mesoscale Discussion 1221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Areas affected...Southeast OR into southwest ID and extreme northern
NV
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 092328Z - 100130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and severe gusts are possible into early
evening.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast OR
and vicinity, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the
Pacific Northwest. MLCAPE of up to 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer
shear are supporting occasionally organized storm structures, with a
couple of stronger cells noted across Malheur County, Oregon. Those
cells will eventually encounter stronger MLCINH to the northeast,
but isolated hail and severe gusts will remain possible in the short
term. Other less-organized convection is ongoing farther west into
south-central OR, and also moving out of far northern NV. A stronger
cell or two could develop across those areas as well, but even the
ongoing less-organized convection could pose a threat of isolated
strong to severe gusts, especially where the environment remains
rather warm and well mixed.
..Dean/Bunting.. 06/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...MFR...
LAT...LON 41641905 41901981 42172057 42612086 43252035 43541891
43971710 43851605 43151585 41951536 41731709 41631876
41641905
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain
possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the
northern inter mountain region.
...01z Update...
Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS,
has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern
GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust
thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are
propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface
front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity
should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with
some hail threat will be noted with this activity.
Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the
northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer
heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed
to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms,
especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should
gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime
heating.
..Darrow.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain
possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the
northern inter mountain region.
...01z Update...
Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS,
has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern
GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust
thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are
propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface
front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity
should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with
some hail threat will be noted with this activity.
Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the
northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer
heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed
to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms,
especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should
gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime
heating.
..Darrow.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain
possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the
northern inter mountain region.
...01z Update...
Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS,
has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern
GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust
thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are
propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface
front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity
should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with
some hail threat will be noted with this activity.
Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the
northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer
heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed
to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms,
especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should
gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime
heating.
..Darrow.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain
possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the
northern inter mountain region.
...01z Update...
Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS,
has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern
GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust
thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are
propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface
front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity
should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with
some hail threat will be noted with this activity.
Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the
northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer
heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed
to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms,
especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should
gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime
heating.
..Darrow.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain
possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the
northern inter mountain region.
...01z Update...
Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS,
has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern
GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust
thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are
propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface
front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity
should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with
some hail threat will be noted with this activity.
Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the
northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer
heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed
to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms,
especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should
gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime
heating.
..Darrow.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain
possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the
northern inter mountain region.
...01z Update...
Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS,
has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern
GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust
thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are
propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface
front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity
should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with
some hail threat will be noted with this activity.
Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the
northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer
heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed
to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms,
especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should
gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime
heating.
..Darrow.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain
possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the
northern inter mountain region.
...01z Update...
Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS,
has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern
GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust
thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are
propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface
front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity
should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with
some hail threat will be noted with this activity.
Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the
northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer
heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed
to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms,
especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should
gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime
heating.
..Darrow.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain
possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the
northern inter mountain region.
...01z Update...
Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS,
has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern
GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust
thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are
propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface
front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity
should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with
some hail threat will be noted with this activity.
Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the
northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer
heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed
to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms,
especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should
gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime
heating.
..Darrow.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH REGION...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening
across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain
possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the
northern inter mountain region.
...01z Update...
Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS,
has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern
GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust
thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are
propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface
front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity
should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with
some hail threat will be noted with this activity.
Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the
northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer
heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed
to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms,
especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should
gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime
heating.
..Darrow.. 06/10/2024
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0401 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0402 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
1 year 2 months ago
MD 1222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NC...NORTHWESTERN SC...AND FAR NORTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024
Areas affected...Portions of southwestern NC...northwestern SC...and
far northeast GA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 092349Z - 100145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are
possible through around 02Z. A watch is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is evolving along the leading edge
of antecedent outflow over western NC as of 2340Z, though
organization has been limited thus far. As these storms continue
east-southeastward through around 02Z, there is some potential for
the development of a loosely organized cluster (and perhaps
transient supercell structures), given a warm/moist pre-convective
boundary layer and around 40-50 kt of unidirectional effective
shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates (contributing to a
weak/skinny buoyancy profile), limited large-scale ascent, and
time-of-day may tend to limit overall intensity/organization of
storms. Nevertheless, locally damaging gusts (45-60 mph) and
marginally severe hail (to near 1 inch) cannot be ruled out.
Additional strong/loosely organized cellular development is also
possible trailing southwestward into far northeastern GA, with a
localized risk for strong gusts and marginally severe hail.
Currently, the severe threat appears too localized and marginal for
a watch, though convective trends will be monitored.
..Weinman/Bunting.. 06/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 35338029 35578066 35688112 35678147 35458196 35278254
35068346 34968389 34748406 34508405 34318369 34288337
34338284 34218241 33928163 33878089 34258034 34638013
34988006 35338029
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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