Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS-PECOS... ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Wisconsin...northwestern lower Michigan and eastern Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220445Z - 220645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity appears likely to continue weakening, but could still pose some risk for strong to severe gusts through 3-4 AM EDT. DISCUSSION...Although seasonably moist inflow with sizable CAPE is probably being maintained into lingering thunderstorm activity spreading into and through the upper Great Lakes region, convection is likely becoming elevated above cool, stable air over Lake Michigan. At the same time, with continuing slow diurnal cooling, a modestly moist boundary-layer over inland portions of lower Michigan and eastern upper Michigan remains only weakly unstable at best. While evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer may contribute to the downward transport of 50+ kt flow to the surface, severe weather potential appears likely to otherwise continue to diminish through the next few hours. As the supporting mid-level short wave trough pivots northward toward the Lake Superior vicinity, it appears the weakening leading line of convection could graze northwestern lower Michigan coastal areas and overspread eastern upper Michigan, while the weakening trailing line overspreads its outflow, near/east of the Green Bay vicinity toward the eastern upper peninsula of Michigan through 07-08Zz. ..Kerr.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX... LAT...LON 46998523 45938435 44018648 43798722 42788800 43548841 44618798 45968678 47068662 46998523 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ..Barnes.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more