Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z The forecast generally remains on track. The Elevated highlights were expanded slightly northward in NM and AZ, where confidence in the overlap of around 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 8-10 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels has increased. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z The forecast generally remains on track. The Elevated highlights were expanded slightly northward in NM and AZ, where confidence in the overlap of around 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 8-10 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels has increased. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z The forecast generally remains on track. The Elevated highlights were expanded slightly northward in NM and AZ, where confidence in the overlap of around 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 8-10 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels has increased. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z The forecast generally remains on track. The Elevated highlights were expanded slightly northward in NM and AZ, where confidence in the overlap of around 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 8-10 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels has increased. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z The forecast generally remains on track. The Elevated highlights were expanded slightly northward in NM and AZ, where confidence in the overlap of around 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 8-10 percent RH atop modestly receptive fuels has increased. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deeply mixed air mass is expected across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ this afternoon, where fuels continue to become more receptive, and relatively unidirectional westerly flow will reside in the base of a mid to upper trough. Westerly surface winds will increase to near critical magnitudes across these regions, as RH drops into the single digits. Some locally enhanced wind speeds may heighten fire spread potential across west central NM, but the duration of these should be limited such that a Critical area is not warranted. An Elevated area was considered for northeastern NV, where stronger flow and subsequently higher sustained surface wind speeds are expected. However, confidence in both critical RH developing and receptive fuels across this region is low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0285 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0285 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0889 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OK...WESTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0889 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0949 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Southeast OK...Western AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221449Z - 221645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm risk is expected to continue for the next several hour from northwest Arkansas into south-central and southeast Oklahoma. Hail up to 2.5" in diameter is the primary risk, with damaging gusts and a tornado or two also possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a three well-developed supercells along a cold front extending southwestward from northwest AR through south-central OK. Each of one of these supercells has shown an intensifying trend over the past hour. The northernmost and southernmost cells both appear to be behind the boundary, although the southernmost cell has recently shown a eastward surge that might indicate a trend towards a more surface-based character. This eastward surge was already noted in the central supercell moving into Haskell, Latimer, and Pittsburg Counties. Given the organized character of these storms, anticipated downstream destabilization, and persistent strong deep-layer vertical shear, the severe threat with these storms will likely continue through the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon. Primary severe risk is expected to be large to very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter. Damaging gusts are also possible, particularly if the storms trend towards a linear mode. Given the presence of supercells, a tornado or two is also possible. ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34489693 35479472 36189316 35989207 34939237 33969310 33779390 33939546 34039686 34489693 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also possible. ...Southeast OK/AR/TN... A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front. These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east. Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/East TX... The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of corridors of damaging wind gusts. ...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY... Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging winds and some hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/22/2024 Read more