Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Mid-South region on Thursday. Damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also will be possible across across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. ...Synopsis... Enhanced west/southwesterly flow will spread across the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Thursday. One upper shortwave impulse is forecast to eject from the southern Rockies to the Mid-South, while another subtle impulse moves from the TN Valley vicinity to the Carolinas. To the north, a negatively tilted compact upper shortwave trough is expected to pivot east from the northern Great Basin/Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring a small but strong 500 mb jet of 70-80 over NE/SD during the evening/overnight. Meanwhile, an upper low and attendant trough migrating east across Ontario and Quebec will result in height falls over the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift east across the Northeast states through early evening. To the west across the northern Plains vicinity, lee low development over the northern/central High Plains will result in increasing southerly low-level flow across the Plains. This will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture, and surface dewpoints are expected to increase markedly across the southern/central Plains east into the OH/TN valleys. A surface dryline is forecast to extend southward from a low in western KS into central TX. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the northern/central Plains, and into northwest OK during the evening/overnight hours. ...Southern Plains/KS to the Mid-South Vicinity... A very moist airmass will develop by midday, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F common. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop this very moist boundary layer will foster strong to extreme instability with MLCAPE from 2500-4500 J/kg evident in forecast soundings. Thunderstorms may develop across parts of AR into the Mid-South vicinity by early afternoon in a strong warm advection regime as a warm front rapidly lifts northward. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly weak, but supercell wind profiles are depicted in forecast soundings. This will support storms capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Further west, at least isolated convection is expected to develop along the dryline from west-central KS to near the OK/TX border. Capping may limit coverage given modest large-scale ascent. However, given the degree of instability, robust updrafts should be able to overcome modest capping. Very large hail (near 2.5 inch diameter) will be possible with these storms in addition to strong gusts. By late afternoon/early evening, low-level shear is expected to increase, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs. A few tornadoes will be possible with any sustained supercell activity. Some potential for upscale growth into an MCS will exist from southeast KS/southwest MO into eastern OK/AR as the low-level jet increases and via storm outflow consolidation. ...Northern/Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the deepening surface low over the Dakotas southward along the east/southeast-progressing cold front. Low-level moisture will remain modest with northward extent across the Dakotas into western MN, with higher-quality moisture expected over NE. However, steep midlevel lapse rates will be present, and contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong to severe storms producing hail will be possible initially. Damaging wind potential may increase toward evening/overnight as a line of convection develops amid strong frontal forcing. ...KY/TN to the Mid-Atlantic... A subtle shortwave trough will spread east across the region as boundary-layer moisture increasing amid strengthening southerly low-level flow. Clusters of thunderstorms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds across parts of KY/TN. With eastward extent into VA and the Carolinas, thunderstorm coverage will be higher. Clusters of storms may develop into one or more east/southeast progressing bands. Deeply-mixed sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles suggest strong gusts will be possible in addition to isolated hail. ...Northeast... A surface cold front will shift east across the region during the day before moving offshore by early evening. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s and steep midlevel lapse rates will support MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow will remain weak, but fast mid/upper westerly flow will support elongated/straight hodographs. Thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts and marginally severe hail in this environment. ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes will be likely today across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated severe storms will be possible today from parts of the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place over a moist and unstable airmass today across much of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Texas by afternoon. As surface temperatures and low-level convergence increase along and near the front, convective initiation will become likely around midday. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east-southeastward across the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex during the afternoon. The development of a large severe MCS appears likely. Ahead of the front, moderate to strong instability is forecast by afternoon, with MLCAPE peaking in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is forecast across much of the moist airmass. At 21Z along and near the axis of greatest convective potential, forecast soundings from the northern Texas Hill Country northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex, have 0-6 km shear in the 50 to 60 knot range. This suggests that supercells will be possible, mainly early in the event when cells are more likely to be discrete and cell interactions are less likely. In addition, forecast soundings near the axis of strongest instability, have 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for large hail with supercells, with hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter possible with the strongest of storms. In areas where cells congeal into a line, wind damage will become likely. The greatest potential will be with the faster-moving bowing segments. A few tornadoes are also expected, mainly with supercells and or bow echoes. The severe threat is expected to persist into the early to mid evening, as the linear MCS moves across parts of central and east Texas into northern Louisiana. ...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough will move northeastward into the western Great Lakes today, as a northeast-to-southwest oriented pre-frontal trough advances eastward through the Ohio Valley. A narrow corridor of instability will develop near the pre-frontal trough from the mid Mississippi Valley northeastward to the lower Great Lakes. As surface temperatures warm along the front during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate. Multiple thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and move eastward through the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z along the axis of instability from western Kentucky northeastward into central Ohio generally have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range. This, combined with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, will support a potential for organized severe storms. Although supercells will be possible, there may be a tendency for storms to organize into short line segments due to flow that will be oriented parallel to the convective axis. Wind damage will be the primary threat, although hail and a marginal tornado threat will be possible in the lower Great Lakes, where deep-layer shear is forecast to be the strongest. The severe threat could persist into the early evening, as cells move into the central Appalachians. ..Broyles/Barnes.. 05/22/2024 Read more