Severe Storms

MD 0881 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 212318Z - 220045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado and damaging wind threat will increase across portions of central WI as a line of thunderstorms, with embedded supercells, continues to rapidly move northeastward out of IA through this evening. DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms extending from far southeastern MN through east central IA, and additional new thunderstorm development ahead of it, will continue to move into a favorable low-level shear tornadic environment across central WI characterized by 50 kt of 0-1 km shear. Although recent visible satellite imagery and mesoanalysis indicates this downstream region is more convectively inhibited, strong forcing via a mid level shortwave trough and cold front will likely overcome it. An initial threat of discrete supercells will be possible early this evening, with upscale growth into a line expected late tonight. Even so, any bowing line segments lifting north-northeastward within it will become more favorably oriented with the low-level shear vector (orthogonal), presenting an opportunity for embedded mesovortices and damaging winds. ..Barnes/Thompson.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44569208 44889238 45129244 45539199 45679140 45679078 45519020 45298967 44988893 44748815 44718809 44318796 43808803 43558806 43578855 43648970 43669023 43769067 43979095 44569122 44569208 Read more

MD 0880 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 278... FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0880 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0533 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...parts of west central Illinois and northeastern Missouri southwestward into northeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 278... Valid 212233Z - 220030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell development will persist in narrow east-southeastward pre-frontal corridor, with some potential the continued evolution of an organizing squall line through 7-9 PM CDT. Stronger storms will continue to pose a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development persists just east of the dryline as a southeastward advancing cold front overtakes it. Activity has evolved into a mix of linear and discrete supercell cell structures, which will tend to slowly shift southeastward as the deep cyclone continues migrating northeastward through the Upper Midwest, and flow to its south veers to a more prominent westerly component and begins to weaken. Convection is still embedded within strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow in excess of 50 kt, which is supporting fast northeasterly cell motion, but at least somewhat drier and less unstable boundary-layer air lingers across south central through east central Missouri and west central Illinois. Stronger convective development probably will remain focused in the rather narrow corridor of better pre-frontal low-level, which guidance does suggest will tend to shift eastward ahead of the front toward the middle Mississippi Valley through 01-03Z. Within this narrow corridor, large CAPE and strong shear will maintain a risk for severe hail/wind and potential for a couple of tornadoes several more hours ..Kerr.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 40539230 39949043 36969267 36199384 35839584 37409421 39489283 40539230 Read more

MD 0879 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 277... FOR CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
Mesoscale Discussion 0879 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Central Iowa into northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin. Concerning...Tornado Watch 277... Valid 212209Z - 212345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 277 continues. SUMMARY...Intense to potentially violent tornado threat across northeast Iowa and into southwest Wisconsin over the next 2 hours DISCUSSION...The supercell which formed the intense to potentially violent tornado which impacted Greenfield and other portions of southwest Iowa this afternoon has re-intensified after storm mergers. This storm and another strong supercell to its south are moving into an increasingly favorable tornadic environment with a STP of 5 to 6 (per SPC mesoanalysis). The backed surface winds and vorticity rich environment in the wake of the morning convection will provide ample low-level vorticity for a sustained tornado threat into the early evening. One or more long-track, potentially violent tornadoes are possible in this corridor over the next 90 to 120 minutes. ..Bentley/Thompson.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 43319094 43149080 42899079 42509117 41569273 41459346 42039360 42679316 43289233 43499174 43489133 43499120 43319094 Read more

WW 0281 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0281 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 281 TORNADO WI LM 212340Z - 220500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 281 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and northeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Tuesday night from 640 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Initial supercells will consolidate into a more solid squall line that will move rapidly northeastward across Wisconsin through early tonight. Embedded circulations will be capable of producing tornadoes (a couple of which could produce roughly EF2 damage), damaging gusts up to 80 mph, and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter for the next several hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Wausau WI to 35 miles southwest of Oshkosh WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW 279...WW 280... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24050. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0280 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 280 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...DVN...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 280 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-013-017-057-061-067-083-095-109-125-137-149-169-171- 220040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN CASS FULTON GREENE HANCOCK JERSEY KNOX MCDONOUGH MASON MORGAN PIKE SCHUYLER SCOTT MOC007-019-027-045-051-055-065-067-071-073-091-093-099-103-111- 113-125-127-131-135-137-139-149-151-153-161-163-169-173-179-183- 189-199-203-205-213-215-219-221-229-510-220040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY CLARK COLE CRAWFORD DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE HOWELL IRON JEFFERSON KNOX LEWIS LINCOLN MARIES MARION Read more

WW 280 TORNADO IL MO 212255Z - 220500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 280 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West central Illinois Eastern into south central Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells and short line segments will remain possible through late evening in a broken band spreading eastward across Missouri toward west central Illinois. The more intense storms will be capable of producing a few tornadoes (one or two of which could be strong), large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts of 60-75 mph. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Quincy IL to 25 miles west southwest of West Plains MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 277...WW 278...WW 279... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0279 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 279 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 279 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC021-025-027-039-045-047-049-055-065-077-105-111-127-131-133- 220040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GREEN GREEN LAKE IOWA JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE MARQUETTE ROCK SAUK WALWORTH WASHINGTON WAUKESHA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 279 TORNADO WI 212100Z - 220500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 279 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 400 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Initially, a relatively isolated severe risk will exist across southern Wisconsin near a warm front, but more numerous storms with a widespread severe risk are likely to move into the region this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles southwest of Lonerock WI to 55 miles east of Madison WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 276...WW 277...WW 278... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW TUL TO 25 NNW JLN TO 20 ESE SZL TO 30 ESE CDJ TO 30 E LWD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-220040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-220040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC001-009-011-015-029-039-041-043-053-057-059-077-085-089-097- 105-109-115-119-121-141-145-167-171-175-185-197-209-211-217-225- 220040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BARRY BARTON Read more

WW 278 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 211940Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Eastern Kansas Western and Central Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to rapidly develop this afternoon, initially across far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, including the Kansas City Metro vicinity, with development a bit later into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Chillicothe MO to 35 miles west southwest of Fayetteville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 276...WW 277... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E LWD TO 15 NE ALO TO 35 WNW LSE TO 40 WSW EAU. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-187-195-220040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC005-007-011-013-017-019-031-043-045-051-055-057-061-065-087- 095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-123-135-139-157-163-171-177- 179-183-185-191-220040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DAVIS DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE FAYETTE HENRY IOWA JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LEE LINN LOUISA Read more

WW 277 TORNADO IA IL MN WI 211810Z - 220200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Iowa Northwest Illinois Southeast Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 900 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An increasingly volatile environment and very strong atmospheric winds are expected to yield an outbreak of severe storms including tornadoes and widespread damaging winds across the region through the afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Ottumwa IA to 50 miles northeast of Mankato MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 276... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0878 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 277... FOR CENTRAL IOWA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Central Iowa and far southeastern Minnesota Concerning...Tornado Watch 277... Valid 212203Z - 212330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 277 continues. SUMMARY...Long tracked supercells within a line extending north to south across central IA will continue to move eastward into an even more favorable tornadic environment. DISCUSSION...Ongoing tornadic supercells continue from Cambridge, to just east of Des Moines. The latest DMX VAD profile data indicates 0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2. However, just upstream the DVN VAD shows SRH is double to triple that. In addition, a corridor of higher boundary layer moisture and backed surface flow east of the current line of deep moist convection from around Olmsted County south-southeastward to Linn County suggests localized SRH should be maximized there, juxtaposed with maximum buoyancy. Therefore, the potential for long tracked, damaging tornadoes appears most likely over the next 1-2 hours as far north as extreme southeastern MN. ..Barnes.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 40659371 41099392 42139384 42969359 43329321 44129282 44109237 43739184 43349151 42809142 42109155 41769160 41149196 40749235 40599255 40659371 Read more

WW 0278 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW TUL TO 60 SSE OJC TO 5 SE CDJ TO 25 E LWD. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 278 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-212340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-037-212340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC001-009-011-015-029-033-039-041-043-053-057-059-077-079-083- 085-089-097-101-105-107-109-115-117-119-121-129-141-145-159-167- 171-175-185-195-197-209-211-217-225-212340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BARRY BARTON Read more

MD 0876 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 278... FOR NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MO...WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0876 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Northeast/North-Central/Central MO...West-Central IL Concerning...Tornado Watch 278... Valid 212054Z - 212300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards is increasing and a watch may be needed within the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has recently shown increasingly agitated cumulus across north-central MO, ahead of the ongoing line of storms moving through northwest MO. This increased vertical development has occurred subsequent with the erosion of the convective inhibition on recent mesoanalysis. Convective initiation is possible within this cumulus field, although there is likely still a warm layer around 800-700 mb that could inhibit updrafts somewhat. If initiation is realized, the environment is favorable for storm intensification/organization, with supercells capable of all severe hazards possible. Even if this early initiation is not realized, the ongoing storms are expected to maintain their intensity as they move into northwest MO around 23Z. A downstream watch will likely be needed over portions of the region to address the increasing potential for severe thunderstorms. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX... LAT...LON 39779339 40459286 40379062 39619032 38989102 38899323 39779339 Read more

MD 0877 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0877 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 212055Z - 212300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible with elevated thunderstorms moving into west-central/north-central Arkansas. The need for a watch in the short term is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have had a recent increase in intensity. While the environment ahead of this activity continues to destabilize slowly, it is not clear whether this activity will be able to become surface based in the near future. Strong effective shear and sufficient buoyancy will promote some risk of large hail as well as isolated strong/damaging winds. Convective trends will continue to be monitored as the need for a watch is not certain in the short term. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 36019340 36399246 36579186 36589130 36449085 35699129 34979242 34419332 34469384 34859407 36019340 Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E LWD TO 45 SW ALO TO 15 SSW RST TO 15 ESE MSP. ..HART..05/21/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...DVN...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 277 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-071-073-085-131-161-187-195-212340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL HENDERSON HENRY JO DAVIESS MERCER ROCK ISLAND WARREN WHITESIDE IAC005-007-011-013-017-019-023-031-037-043-045-051-055-057-061- 065-067-075-087-089-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-117- 123-125-127-135-139-157-163-171-177-179-183-185-191-212340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DAVIS DELAWARE DES MOINES DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD GRUNDY HENRY HOWARD IOWA JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest into the southern High Plains... ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... On Day 3/Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow in the base of a large-scale western-CONUS trough will persist atop a dry/deeply mixed air mass over the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will favor another day of dry/breezy conditions across the region. Over southern NM, a modest pressure gradient peripheral to a deepening lee cyclone will aid in slightly stronger surface winds amid single-digit RH. Locally critical conditions are expected here, though confidence in the development of widespread critical surface winds is too low to introduce higher probabilities at this time. West-southwesterly midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest on Day 4/Friday, where a warm/dry antecedent air mass will remain in place. This will promote a continuation of breezy surface winds and low RH across the region, with the strongest sustained surface winds (and highest confidence in critical conditions) expected over northeast AZ and northwest NM. By Day 5/Saturday, a robust midlevel jet streak embedded in the west-southwesterlies will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains -- where continued warm/dry conditions are expected. At the same time, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains, yielding strong sustained surface winds across most of NM into west TX. This will favor an expansive area of critical conditions across NM, given increasingly dry/receptive fuels. Dry/breezy conditions are once again expected across NM on Day 6/Sunday, owing to a continuation of moderate west-southwesterly flow atop a warm/dry air mass. However, slightly weaker flow aloft limits confidence in the development of widespread critical conditions -- precluding 70-percent probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more