Severe Storms

MD 0891 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NEW YORK INTO PARTS UPPER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0891 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Western New York into parts upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221628Z - 221830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is possible for parts of western/central New York into the upper Ohio Valley. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. An isolated brief tornado and large hail may occur with the stronger, more organized activity. DISCUSSION...Convection has been most intense right ahead of an MCV tracking into northwest Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. Destabilization continues to occur ahead of this activity and farther south into western Pennsylvania and vicinity. Convection is likely to continue in close proximity to the MCV as well as additional development within the Allegheny Mountains. Buoyancy may be more limited into southeast Ohio/northern West Virginia due to cloud cover. Observed morning soundings from the region showed mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. Deep layer shear this far east will be weaker given the displacement from the primary synoptic wave in the Upper Midwest. However, some modest increase in shear should occur through the day. Storms will be capable of damaging winds primarily. Some risk for a brief tornado is also evident given modest low-level hodograph turning on area VAD profiles. Large hail could occur with the strongest storms, but weak upper-level flow will likely keep this threat more isolated. A watch may eventually be needed should convective trends warrant. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE... LAT...LON 42257981 43227850 43247715 41577734 40147813 39617857 39148007 38708090 38748142 38748174 39798164 42257981 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, the Critical area was expanded westward into the central NM Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of critical winds/RH has increased. Additionally, the Elevated highlights were expanded northward along the I-25 corridor in southern CO, where locally critical meteorological conditions are possible amid modestly receptive fuels. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 05/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing deep westerly flow within the base of a large-scale trough, along with a deepening lee surface cyclone over the High Plains, will result in critical surface wind speeds developing across portions of southern and eastern NM, and the Upper Trans-Pecos region of TX Thursday afternoon. This, combined with increasingly receptive fuels and widespread single-digit RH, has led to the introduction of a Critical area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and southern Plains into the Mid-South on Thursday. Damaging winds, damaging hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. The greatest concentration of severe wind is expected over parts of Nebraska into northern Kansas late, where gusts over 80 mph are expected. ...Synopsis... Two primary shortwave troughs will exist on Thursday. The leading trough will move from the Great Lakes into the Northeast late, with another moving from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. To the south, moderate to strong mid and high level westerlies will persist across the southern states, with embedded disturbances from TX into the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will push east from NY into New England during the day, while the westward extension of this boundary becomes a warm front and lifts north across the Mid MS and lower MO Valleys. Rich low-level moisture with 70s F dewpoints from TX to the lower MS Valley will spread north across OK, AR, and into southern KS and MO, in anticipation of the northern Plains shortwave trough. During the afternoon, a surface trough will deepen from SD into eastern CO, with a surging cold front moving rapidly south into the central Plains overnight. ...Northern TX/OK into AR... Areas of thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from AR into TN Thursday morning, with attendant midlevel wave moving quickly eastward. Some of this activity could pose a damaging wind risk, depending on level of organization at that time. To the west, moisture and instability will build across the region as southerly winds increase advection and the air mass over TX recovers from the previous nights convection. Given the rapid moisture return, substantial low clouds will be possible over much of the area. Indeed, the steeper low-level lapse rates are forecast to remain well west into from western KS into the TX Panhandle and South Plains west of the dryline. Isolated, and perhaps short lived activity cannot be ruled out along a very narrow zone there at peak heating, with hail threat. Otherwise, a large area of moisture and instability will conditionally favor severe storms from OK to the ArkLaTex, however, uncertainty exists regarding what will focus development. The deepening moist layer may eventually erode CIN from below, in which case storms that develop with clearly have very large hail potential due to steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs. A brief tornado or two may also occur. ...Central and northern Plains... A very unstable air mass will develop during the afternoon, well ahead of the developing cold front. Lapse rates aloft will be steep, with low-level moisture rapidly spreading north during the evening. Initial supercells are expected from west-central into central NE, with an eventual severe MCS developing. Forecast soundings during the evening indicate very steep lapse rates aloft and otherwise supercellular wind profiles, however, given the eventual upscale growth, a particularly severe MCS is forecast. Significant wind gusts as well as wind-driven hail will be possible. In addition, brief tornadoes are expected. This activity may reach the MO River into Friday morning. ..Jewell.. 05/22/2024 Read more