Severe Storms

MD 1320 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW YORK...VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeast Pennsylvania into New York...Vermont...northern New Hampshire...western Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181801Z - 181930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong, damaging gusts and a couple instances of hail should occur with the stronger storms that can develop through the afternoon. The severe threat should remain more isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Weak deep-layer flow and shear are present across portions of the Hudson Valley into New England as a deep-layer anticyclone persists over the Mid Atlantic. Nonetheless, strong surface heating has boosted surface temperatures into the upper 80s F, supporting both the approach of convective temperatures (hence developing CU), and the achievement of widespread 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Though quite modest, westerly upper-level flow along the northern periphery of the anticyclone is supporting slight elongation of upper-level hodographs. As such, a mix of pulse-single-cells and perhaps a couple of multicells are likely this afternoon. Given some dry air in the surface-850 mb and 700-500 mb layers (per latest RAP forecast soundings), the stronger storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts (some damaging), and a couple instances of hail may also be observed. However, the overall severe threat should be more isolated. A WW issuance currently appears unlikely. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 43167746 43607612 44477502 44887332 45017200 46117016 45926948 45096980 43737181 41907426 41127593 40927669 41117752 41737780 42447781 43167746 Read more

MD 1317 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR MOST OF MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1317 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...most of MN Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 181720Z - 181915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...While initially elevated thunderstorms may pose an isolated severe hail threat, scattered surface-based storms will likely develop by mid to late afternoon from across most of Minnesota. All severe hazards are possible. A tornado watch will probably be needed by 19Z. DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis placed a 997 mb cyclone near the northeast SD/west-central MN border with a warm front gradually advancing north into northern MN and a cold front arcing south-southwest into central NE. Initially elevated convection north of the front may pose some risk for isolated severe hail in the near-term. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates MLCIN has become weak with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg within the plume of pervasive low 70s boundary-layer dewpoints ahead of the cold front. Morning CAM guidance is insistent on scattered to eventually widespread convective development from northern MN building southward later this afternoon. While the mid to upper-level bulk shear will be modest with much of the stronger flow displaced west of the front, low-level hodographs will remain enlarged across the MN portion of the warm-moist sector. A rather messy convective mode is anticipated to evolve quickly given this wind profile. But with rich boundary-layer moisture and enhanced SRH, tornado potential is a concern from the warm frontal zone southward. A mix of outflow-dominated clusters with embedded and largely transient supercells is expected. These should yield potential for a few tornadoes, scattered wind gusts of 55-70 mph, and isolated large hail from 1-1.75 inches in diameter. ..Grams/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45579650 46179613 47179439 47959296 48119199 47809152 46619217 45619290 44329384 43669474 43649620 44379653 45579650 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Update... An Elevated area has been added to western/northwestern NM Wednesday to account for breezy sustained southerly surface winds. An increasing pressure gradient within a deepening surface trough over western NM will likely result in speeds exceeding 20 mph for 1-3 hours across this region. These winds will coincide with RH in the low teens to single digits, where at least localized ERC percentiles are reaching critical thresholds. Otherwise, please see the previous discussion below for details pertaining to isolated dry thunderstorms, and easterly flow across Florida. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moisture along the southwestern periphery of the mid-level ridge will push westward across New Mexico Wednesday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some wetting rains occurring across the eastern half of New Mexico where deeper moisture is expected. Along the edge of this deeper moisture, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible over portions of west-central and southern New Mexico into far southeastern Arizona during the afternoon and evening. Across northern Florida, easterly surface winds around 15 mph should develop on Wednesday, overlapping relative humidity less than 35-40 percent. This overlap appears very short lived and mainly across far northern Florida and the Panhandle, where less receptive fuels persist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1318 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...portions of far northeastern Kentucky...far western West Virginia...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...far southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181735Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging gusts and isolated instances of hail will continue to gradually increase through the afternoon. The overall severe threat should be more sparse, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A moist low-level airmass continues to advect northward and pivot around a deep-layer anticyclone currently positioned over the Mid Atlantic region. Robust heating of this moist airmass is resulting in convective temperatures (i.e. 88-90 F) being reached over many locales, with thunderstorm initiation already underway. Overspreading this airmass are 6+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, which are supporting narrow, but tall CAPE profiles, with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE already becoming widespread. The current synoptic regime around the anticyclone is fostering weak vertical shear/flow profiles, so pulse-cellular is the expected mode of convection, though multicells are also possible. Wet downbursts with the stronger storms should support strong wind gusts, some of which may cause damage. An instance or two of hail are also possible. However, severe (50+ kt) winds are not expected to be particularly widespread, so a WW appears unlikely at this time. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX... JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 37168390 40228313 41548210 42757904 42437780 41717740 40867792 40197846 39307980 38168080 37238200 37008303 37168390 Read more