Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW JERSEY...FAR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts remain possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. A small area of wind gusts approaching 50 kt may exist over parts of NJ toward the DelMarVa, and 15% wind probabilities have been introduced per collaboration with local offices. Scattered storms continue to develop over a large region from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic and down across the Appalachians. The environment is characterized by ample low-level moisture, poor lapse rates a loft and weak shear. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1794 and 1795. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Read more

WW 0590 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0590 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 2 19:48:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The areas delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms were combined and refined spatially based on the latest guidance. A broad area of thunderstorms should develop by mid afternoon over the northern Great Basin region and move north into portions of the northern Rockies with time. A few clusters may emerge from this activity, and PWAT values are forecast to approach 1 inch by late in the period. These factors may promote more wetting rain potential and the need to refine areas further if/when predictability warrants such changes. ..Karstens.. 08/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On D2 Saturday, a midlevel disturbance will continue to translate along the western periphery of the anticyclone across the western US, bring showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada range and into the Northwest. Further east and north, dry thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the Great Basin and far western Montana. These storms will have potential to produce gusty and erratic outflow winds. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more