SPC MD 1374

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1374 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...north-central Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222020Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for a brief tornado and/or localized 50-65 mph gust will focus in a mesoscale area northwest of Saginaw Bay over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed on the southern end of a band of low-topped convection moving across northern Lower MI. Lightning was recently observed in the past 15 minutes as the storm moves east along a west-east oriented stationary front. Along and south of the boundary, surface dewpoints are in the 70-72 deg F range. Ample deep-layer shear and adequate buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will seemingly support a continuation and maintenance of this storm as it moves east. An isolated risk for a 50-65 mph gust and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this storm. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX... LAT...LON 44188438 44218367 44108352 43988361 43908374 43958446 44088450 44188438 Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC MD 1372

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1372 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN IA...NORTHERN IL...AND SOUTHERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1372 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeastern IA...northern IL...and southern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221756Z - 222000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated large hail are expected this afternoon into the evening. A watch is likely in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates filtered diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist boundary layer (middle 70s dewpoints) along/south of an east/west-oriented stationary boundary extending across portions of northern IA into southern WI. Over the next couple hours, a weak frontal wave currently near far northwest IA will track eastward along the boundary, promoting scattered thunderstorm development -- aided by the aforementioned destabilization and modest midlevel height falls ahead of a midlevel trough. Around 50 kt of midlevel westerly flow atop a 30-40-kt southwesterly low-level jet (per regional VWP) will promote organized surface-based storms (including a few supercells) near the boundary. Easterly storm motions and deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary may favor congealing cold pools and localized upscale growth, though the favorable shear profile (large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs) should encourage a few sustained semi-discrete supercells. Damaging winds up to 70 mph, a couple tornadoes, and isolated large hail are all possible with this activity. Current thinking is that severe storms will develop/mature in the 19-20Z time frame and persist into the evening hours. A watch is likely for parts of the area in the next hour or two. ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 41729328 41889371 42309395 42769393 43079356 43249277 43389085 43338912 43088858 42328852 41908884 41708959 41649094 41679239 41729328 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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