Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for the upcoming work week and into next weekend; however, regional fire weather concerns may emerge across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest during the early to middle work week. Recent long-range ensemble guidance has maintained a signal for upper ridging over the south-central CONUS with the potential for multiple low-amplitude waves across the northern U.S. This synoptic regime will favor rain chances along and east of the Rockies with occasional rain chances for the Pacific Northwest through the end of next week. Ensemble solutions show low probability for wetting rainfall across the West Coast and Great Basin, which should maintain antecedent dry conditions. The passage of a weak mid-level wave across the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies on D3/Monday will strengthen low-level pressure gradient winds across the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Although regional gradient winds are not forecast to be overly strong, both deterministic and ensemble solutions hint that elevated to critical fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada across northwest NV and within the Snake River Plain of eastern ID where terrain-augmented winds should be comparatively stronger. A similar regime is forecast during the D5/Wed to D6/Thur period as a second upper wave traverses the international border. Recent runs of the GFS/GEFS have trended towards a more amplified upper wave with a more robust low-level wind response. If these solutions are accurate, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the central to northern Great Basin both days. However, poor run-to-run consistency and disagreement with other long-range solutions limits confidence in this potential. Highlights may be needed in subsequent outlooks if guidance continues to converge on this windier solution. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1371 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NY...CT...RI...WESTERN AND CENTRAL MA
Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...central into eastern NY...CT...RI...western and central MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221611Z - 221815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage to increase with a corresponding uptick in intensity expected 1-4pm EDT (17-20 UTC). Widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary threat. Marginally severe hail (0.75 to 1.25 inches in diameter) may occur with the strongest cell. An upgrade to Slight Risk is forthcoming in the 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...The 12 UTC (8am EDT) Albany, NY raob showed a very moist profile with PW 1.94 inches and weak lapse rates. Around 500 J/kg MLCAPE was noted in this observed sounding. Visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over central and eastern NY to the south of a few ongoing thunderstorms. A stratus deck is observed over the eastern half of MA into RI, and this stratus loosely corresponds with the placement of a west-northwest to east-southeast oriented stationary front. Additional heating since this morning's raob at Albany (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE likely at midday) has contributed to a destabilizing airmass from central NY east-southeast into CT to the south of the stationary front. Of particular note compared to yesterday, slightly stronger 1-6 km westerly flow (20-35 kt) is observed at the WSR-88D KENX VAD (Albany). This slight enhancement to westerly flow coupled with MLCAPE rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg range and near 2 inches PW, will probably favor a small cluster or two developing over the next several hours. As this thunderstorm cluster matures, it seems plausible a focused area for 50-65 mph gusts and potential widely scattered wind damage may occur from the Hudson Valley into MA/CT and perhaps as far east as RI. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 43027488 43117456 43037350 42267161 41857142 41547143 41337160 41277247 42547514 42857515 43027488 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with some adjustments needed based on recent trends in guidance. Confidence remains fairly high in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across portions of the greater Pacific Northwest region. Drier/windier solutions continue to hint at the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions - specifically in the lee of the Warner Mountains along the OR/NV border and within the Snake River Plain. However, ensemble guidance suggests this potential may remain fairly localized. Elevated conditions will likely materialize across parts of western WY as well, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are only modestly receptive over this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through Washington during the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will develop as a surface low deepens in the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan. ...Northwest... Strong westerly surface winds across the Cascades will promote downslope drying into the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Given some push of marine air to the east, it is possible that RH will not become overly low. However, generally dry fuels and 15-20 mph winds will support an elevated fire weather risk. ...OR/CA/NV... The surface pressure gradient and mid-level winds will be weaker than farther north, but confidence in RH of 10-20% is much higher. Winds could locally approach 20 mph, but will more broadly be around 15 mph. Locally elevated conditions are expected to the lee of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. ...Snake River Plain... On the fringe of the strong mid-level winds, favorably oriented with the Valley, winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. RH of 15-20% can be expected during the afternoon. Though meteorological conditions could become critical, fuels are not sufficiently dry to support more than an elevated risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with some adjustments needed based on recent trends in guidance. Confidence remains fairly high in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across portions of the greater Pacific Northwest region. Drier/windier solutions continue to hint at the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions - specifically in the lee of the Warner Mountains along the OR/NV border and within the Snake River Plain. However, ensemble guidance suggests this potential may remain fairly localized. Elevated conditions will likely materialize across parts of western WY as well, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are only modestly receptive over this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through Washington during the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will develop as a surface low deepens in the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan. ...Northwest... Strong westerly surface winds across the Cascades will promote downslope drying into the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Given some push of marine air to the east, it is possible that RH will not become overly low. However, generally dry fuels and 15-20 mph winds will support an elevated fire weather risk. ...OR/CA/NV... The surface pressure gradient and mid-level winds will be weaker than farther north, but confidence in RH of 10-20% is much higher. Winds could locally approach 20 mph, but will more broadly be around 15 mph. Locally elevated conditions are expected to the lee of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. ...Snake River Plain... On the fringe of the strong mid-level winds, favorably oriented with the Valley, winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. RH of 15-20% can be expected during the afternoon. Though meteorological conditions could become critical, fuels are not sufficiently dry to support more than an elevated risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with some adjustments needed based on recent trends in guidance. Confidence remains fairly high in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across portions of the greater Pacific Northwest region. Drier/windier solutions continue to hint at the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions - specifically in the lee of the Warner Mountains along the OR/NV border and within the Snake River Plain. However, ensemble guidance suggests this potential may remain fairly localized. Elevated conditions will likely materialize across parts of western WY as well, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are only modestly receptive over this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through Washington during the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will develop as a surface low deepens in the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan. ...Northwest... Strong westerly surface winds across the Cascades will promote downslope drying into the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Given some push of marine air to the east, it is possible that RH will not become overly low. However, generally dry fuels and 15-20 mph winds will support an elevated fire weather risk. ...OR/CA/NV... The surface pressure gradient and mid-level winds will be weaker than farther north, but confidence in RH of 10-20% is much higher. Winds could locally approach 20 mph, but will more broadly be around 15 mph. Locally elevated conditions are expected to the lee of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. ...Snake River Plain... On the fringe of the strong mid-level winds, favorably oriented with the Valley, winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. RH of 15-20% can be expected during the afternoon. Though meteorological conditions could become critical, fuels are not sufficiently dry to support more than an elevated risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with some adjustments needed based on recent trends in guidance. Confidence remains fairly high in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across portions of the greater Pacific Northwest region. Drier/windier solutions continue to hint at the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions - specifically in the lee of the Warner Mountains along the OR/NV border and within the Snake River Plain. However, ensemble guidance suggests this potential may remain fairly localized. Elevated conditions will likely materialize across parts of western WY as well, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are only modestly receptive over this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through Washington during the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will develop as a surface low deepens in the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan. ...Northwest... Strong westerly surface winds across the Cascades will promote downslope drying into the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Given some push of marine air to the east, it is possible that RH will not become overly low. However, generally dry fuels and 15-20 mph winds will support an elevated fire weather risk. ...OR/CA/NV... The surface pressure gradient and mid-level winds will be weaker than farther north, but confidence in RH of 10-20% is much higher. Winds could locally approach 20 mph, but will more broadly be around 15 mph. Locally elevated conditions are expected to the lee of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. ...Snake River Plain... On the fringe of the strong mid-level winds, favorably oriented with the Valley, winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. RH of 15-20% can be expected during the afternoon. Though meteorological conditions could become critical, fuels are not sufficiently dry to support more than an elevated risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with some adjustments needed based on recent trends in guidance. Confidence remains fairly high in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across portions of the greater Pacific Northwest region. Drier/windier solutions continue to hint at the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions - specifically in the lee of the Warner Mountains along the OR/NV border and within the Snake River Plain. However, ensemble guidance suggests this potential may remain fairly localized. Elevated conditions will likely materialize across parts of western WY as well, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are only modestly receptive over this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through Washington during the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will develop as a surface low deepens in the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan. ...Northwest... Strong westerly surface winds across the Cascades will promote downslope drying into the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Given some push of marine air to the east, it is possible that RH will not become overly low. However, generally dry fuels and 15-20 mph winds will support an elevated fire weather risk. ...OR/CA/NV... The surface pressure gradient and mid-level winds will be weaker than farther north, but confidence in RH of 10-20% is much higher. Winds could locally approach 20 mph, but will more broadly be around 15 mph. Locally elevated conditions are expected to the lee of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. ...Snake River Plain... On the fringe of the strong mid-level winds, favorably oriented with the Valley, winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. RH of 15-20% can be expected during the afternoon. Though meteorological conditions could become critical, fuels are not sufficiently dry to support more than an elevated risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more