SPC Jun 23, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC Jun 23, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC MD 1378

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...North-central Missouri into south-central and southeast Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222246Z - 230045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms may occur late this afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail are the main threats. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible should convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Convective showers have been increasing along the cold front and within weak convergence bands ahead of the front in southern Iowa and northern Missouri. With the primary shortwave trough farther to the the north, forcing for ascent will be more nebulous. That said, storm coverage is not certain late this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s/low 90s F and the airmass is quite moist (low 70s F dewpoints). MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and effective shear of around 35 kts will be sufficient for organized strong to severe storms. Damaging winds will be the main threat with isolated marginally severe hail possible as well. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible late this afternoon, but issuance will depend on convective coverage. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41769289 41509207 40839178 40119216 39759260 39619362 39969442 40549469 40639471 41549375 41769289 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 446 Status Reports

1 year 1 month ago
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE DSM TO 25 E ALO TO 45 NNW DBQ TO 30 SW LNR TO 35 N MSN. ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-113-139-163-171- 230140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WIC021-025-027-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-127-131- 133-230140- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 446 Status Reports

1 year 1 month ago
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE DSM TO 25 E ALO TO 45 NNW DBQ TO 30 SW LNR TO 35 N MSN. ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-113-139-163-171- 230140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WIC021-025-027-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-127-131- 133-230140- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 446 Status Reports

1 year 1 month ago
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE DSM TO 25 E ALO TO 45 NNW DBQ TO 30 SW LNR TO 35 N MSN. ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-113-139-163-171- 230140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WIC021-025-027-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-127-131- 133-230140- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 446 Status Reports

1 year 1 month ago
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE DSM TO 25 E ALO TO 45 NNW DBQ TO 30 SW LNR TO 35 N MSN. ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-113-139-163-171- 230140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WIC021-025-027-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-127-131- 133-230140- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 446 Status Reports

1 year 1 month ago
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE DSM TO 25 E ALO TO 45 NNW DBQ TO 30 SW LNR TO 35 N MSN. ..WENDT..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-230140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC011-019-031-043-045-055-061-095-097-103-105-113-139-163-171- 230140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BUCHANAN CEDAR CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WIC021-025-027-043-045-049-055-059-065-079-089-101-105-127-131- 133-230140- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 446

1 year 1 month ago
WW 446 TORNADO IA IL WI 222015Z - 230100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 446 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northwest Illinois Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a boundary extending from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Favorable winds aloft will promote supercell storms, capable of damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Waterloo IA to 30 miles north of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

SPC MD 1378

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1378 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1378 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0546 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...North-central Missouri into south-central and southeast Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222246Z - 230045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong/severe storms may occur late this afternoon into the evening. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail are the main threats. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible should convective trends warrant. DISCUSSION...Convective showers have been increasing along the cold front and within weak convergence bands ahead of the front in southern Iowa and northern Missouri. With the primary shortwave trough farther to the the north, forcing for ascent will be more nebulous. That said, storm coverage is not certain late this afternoon into the evening. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s/low 90s F and the airmass is quite moist (low 70s F dewpoints). MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and effective shear of around 35 kts will be sufficient for organized strong to severe storms. Damaging winds will be the main threat with isolated marginally severe hail possible as well. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible late this afternoon, but issuance will depend on convective coverage. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41769289 41509207 40839178 40119216 39759260 39619362 39969442 40549469 40639471 41549375 41769289 Read more

SPC MD 1377

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1377 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 446... FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0525 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...Northeastern Iowa into southwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 446... Valid 222225Z - 230000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 446 continues. SUMMARY...Southwestern Wisconsin will see a locally greater risk for a tornado over the next 1-2 hours. Convection along the warm front may eventually grow upscale later this afternoon into the evening. DISCUSSION...Storms have generally struggled to intensify, particularly those away from the surface low/warm front. The 18Z observed DVN sounding showed very poor mid-level lapse rates which are likely contributing to these convective trends. Still, a couple of discrete storms in northeastern Iowa and far southwestern Wisconsin have shown at least weak low-level rotation at times. These storms are moving into an area where surface winds are slightly more backed in southwestern Wisconsin. Should these storms maintain their intensity, they would pose a locally greater tornado risk over the next 1-2 hours. Storms along the warm front could also pose some risk for a tornado, though storm coverage is such that destructive interference may mitigate any higher potential. This activity may form a more organized cold pool and begin to push southeastward with time. This scenario has support from several CAMs. Damaging winds would be the main threat with this more linear activity. ..Wendt.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 43269228 43469132 43298997 43008936 42588923 42009051 41869136 42029198 42559260 42849273 43269228 Read more

SPC MD 1376

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1376 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1376 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana into far western North Dakota and extreme northwestern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222054Z - 222300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail/wind gusts are possible this afternoon with the stronger storms. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The passage of a 500 mb vort max along the U.S./Canada border is supporting convective initiation across portions of eastern Montana. Latest visible satellite imagery, MRMS mosaic radar and NLDN lightning data, all indicate some increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity, with some indications of hail occurring in Musselshell County, MT. The stronger flow aloft with the passing 500 mb vort max is contributing to straight, elongated hodographs and accompanying 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Coinciding this axis of shear are 8.5+ C/km 0-3km lapse rates, which may support a couple of stronger thunderstorms this afternoon. Multicells and transient supercells would be the most likely storm modes with the longest-lived storms, accompanied by an isolated severe wind/hail threat. Given the expected sparse nature of the severe wind/hail, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 46620881 47050761 47570467 47290258 46570237 45930299 45610451 45400591 45410708 45780817 46620881 Read more

SPC MD 1375

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1375 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1375 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Utah into western Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222032Z - 222300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated severe wind and hail is increasing across portions of eastern UT into western CO. A WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in number and intensity across eastern UT/western CO along the entrance region of a 300 mb jet streak, where a well-mixed boundary layer is now in place. Latest MRMS-MESH radar data suggests some of the stronger storms may already be producing at least marginally severe (i.e. 1 inch diameter) hail. Surface temperatures approaching the upper 80s F beneath 9 C/km tropospheric lapse rates is contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest low-level curvature but considerable mid-level elongation, which will promote continued multicell/supercell development through the afternoon. The strongest storms will be accompanied by some severe wind/hail threat. However, the severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 37901173 40281098 40861015 40900904 40550753 39370717 38010711 37390795 37130931 37091013 37231119 37901173 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 446 Status Reports

1 year 1 month ago
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-222240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-067-069- 075-083-095-097-103-105-113-127-139-163-171-191-222240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GRUNDY HARDIN IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MARSHALL MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WINNESHIEK Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 446 Status Reports

1 year 1 month ago
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-222240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-067-069- 075-083-095-097-103-105-113-127-139-163-171-191-222240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GRUNDY HARDIN IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MARSHALL MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WINNESHIEK Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 446 Status Reports

1 year 1 month ago
WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 446 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 446 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC015-085-161-177-195-222240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARROLL JO DAVIESS ROCK ISLAND STEPHENSON WHITESIDE IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-031-037-043-045-055-061-065-067-069- 075-083-095-097-103-105-113-127-139-163-171-191-222240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CEDAR CHICKASAW CLAYTON CLINTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD FRANKLIN GRUNDY HARDIN IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES LINN MARSHALL MUSCATINE SCOTT TAMA WINNESHIEK Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 446

1 year 1 month ago
WW 446 TORNADO IA IL WI 222015Z - 230100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 446 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northwest Illinois Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a boundary extending from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Favorable winds aloft will promote supercell storms, capable of damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Waterloo IA to 30 miles north of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

SPC MD 1373

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1373 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NY...CT...RI...CENTRAL MA
Mesoscale Discussion 1373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...Southeast NY...CT...RI...central MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221951Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will maximize and become focused over a mesoscale area over the next 2-3 hours (mainly prior to 23 UTC/7 pm EDT). Because of the small spatiotemporal window of the severe risk area, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...An organized linear band of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely continue to move east-southeastward to the southern New England coast over the next several hours. Echo top trends over the past 2 hours has shown tops increase from 40 kft to 50 kft. This convective trend is an indication that 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (buoyancy) has become realized by the stronger storms over CT. The moderately strong westerly 2-6 km flow (30 kt) will support updraft/cold pool organization as this activity moves through a very moist airmass (low to mid 70s surface dewpoints). Brief/transient rotation with updrafts encountering relatively backed flow (south-southeasterly at the surface) may aid in mesoscyclonic rotation and perhaps hail potential (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) with discrete storms ahead of the line. Otherwise, wind damage potential due to strong-severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary risk with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 41287250 41017342 41137388 41497413 41787393 41967282 42347197 42117151 41917115 41587113 41427118 41287250 Read more
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