Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain confined to the Great Basin for much of the upcoming work week and into early next weekend. Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave over the northern Pacific, which is expected to migrate into the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D4/Wed to D5/Thursday period. Long-range ensemble and deterministic solutions appear to have come into better agreement regarding the amplitude and evolution of this wave, and suggest that the mid-week fire regime may yield wind/RH values similar to today's (Sunday's) fire weather conditions across the northern Great Basin. Consequently, confidence in the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions has sufficiently increased to warrant risk probabilities for both D4/Wed and D5/Thu. Ensemble guidance also suggests the probability for wetting rainfall through the middle of the work week will be very limited along the West Coast into the western and northern Great Basin, which should maintain adequately dry fuels and support the fire weather concern. Confidence in the fire threat further north into the Pacific Northwest is more limited due to increasing rain chances based on ensemble QPF probabilities, but trends will be monitored considering recent fire activity along and east of the Cascades. The persistence of an upper-ridge over the south-central CONUS through the end of the work week will maintain a mean westerly flow regime across the northern U.S. Deterministic solutions and cluster analyses hint that another mid-level wave will approach the Pacific Northwest region by D7/Sat into D8/Sun, which may support dry/windy conditions east of the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in the fire weather threat is fairly limited at this range. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0449 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0449 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-005-007-017-031-232140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN OXFORD YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-027-232140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-232140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-005-007-017-031-232140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN OXFORD YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-027-232140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-232140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more