Severe Storms

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0452 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 452 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 242250Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 452 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and North-Central Minnesota Eastern North Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Developing supercells along/ahead of a cold front should initially pose a threat for isolated very large hail up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With time this evening, severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph may become more of a concern as thunderstorms potentially develop into one or more small clusters as they spread eastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south of Fargo ND to 45 miles west northwest of International Falls MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 451... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1395 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242059Z - 242300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening over the Central High Plains. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the high terrain in an environment characterized by large surface T/Td spreads, deeply-mixed inverted-v boundary layer profiles, and 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear in the southern portion of the MD area, increasing to 40-45 kts further north in the Black Hills. These storms are expected to continue eastward into the High Plains, where buoyancy increases slightly with eastward extent. Given the dry environment and weak vertical shear, a few damaging wind gusts from dry downdrafts are possible with ongoing convection, and additional development may be possible with interacting thunderstorm outflows. Further north in the Black Hills, convective development is less certain, but better combinations of buoyancy and shear indicate potential for an isolated hail and damaging wind threat if a storm develops out of the current cu field. Watch issuance is not likely at this time, but convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 44890339 44860289 44580245 44260226 43880219 43320214 42890207 42500192 41960142 41650117 41250090 40860062 40490042 40090026 39600017 39350027 39070043 38870060 38730085 38680119 38670161 38670181 38830205 38980218 39260237 39470253 39680266 39730271 40000320 40260353 40760405 41200450 41600478 42000499 42300513 42800530 43460551 43910558 44270551 44540514 44710477 44800434 44830385 44890339 Read more

MD 1394 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451... Valid 241931Z - 242100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will continue through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...A cluster/broken line of storms continues to move southeast across eastern North Carolina. An unstable airmass featuring 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will continue to support these storms as they move east. Storms have moved south of the stronger mid-level flow, but the MHX VWP still shows around 30 knots of westerly flow which should be sufficient for multicell/transient supercell organization. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat through the afternoon and the threat is expected to end once storms move into the Atlantic. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34157787 34917830 35687757 36287568 36107540 35697532 35197544 35127573 34917616 34757634 34507648 34557669 34587694 34507722 34247754 34157787 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GSB TO 35 NNW EWN TO 40 SSW ECG TO 25 SSE ECG TO 75 E ECG. ..BENTLEY..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 242140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-231-250-252-242140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GSB TO 35 NNW EWN TO 40 SSW ECG TO 25 SSE ECG TO 75 E ECG. ..BENTLEY..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 242140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-231-250-252-242140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GSB TO 35 NNW EWN TO 40 SSW ECG TO 25 SSE ECG TO 75 E ECG. ..BENTLEY..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-049-055-061-095-103-107-129-133-137-141-177- 242140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN HYDE JONES LENOIR NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER TYRRELL AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-231-250-252-242140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS SOUTH WI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN EAST NC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest late this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...20Z Update... Overall forecast scenario remains valid with potential for an intense, bowing MCS this evening into tonight. With continued spatiotemporal differences among recent guidance for initial supercell development, confidence is below-average for further increases in severe probabilities along the north-northwest to south-southeast oriented MLCAPE gradient over the Upper MS Valley. In addition, the likely orientation of the MCS with respect to the instability gradient suggest the significant severe wind threat may be relatively confined owing to abundant warm-moist sector MLCIN to the west and diminishing instability to the east. The corridor previously highlighted, that is centered on a portion of the Upper MS Valley into south WI, remains the most probable zone for potentially destructive wind gusts. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. Read more