Severe Storms

MD 1399 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452... FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1399 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Northern Minnesota and far east central North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452... Valid 250053Z - 250230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threats of large hail up to 1.50-2.50" in diameter and wind gusts near 60-70 mph continue with thunderstorms along a cold front this evening. DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing along and just ahead of a cold front over northern MN. These thunderstorms are within an environment where persistent deep layer shear vectors around 50 kt in magnitude are oriented nearly normal to the cold frontal forcing, suggesting discrete organized updrafts will continue through this evening. An instability axis also extends southwest to northeast along the cold front, with the most recent surface objective analysis indicating around 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Further south along the front, several convective initiation attempts have occurred, but maintenance has been unsuccessful. This may be due to slightly warmer mid to upper-level temperatures and weaker flow aloft being present there. However, attempts are still ongoing and additional thunderstorm development with southward extent cannot be ruled out. In addition to large hail and damaging winds, the tornado threat is non-zero based on the latest RAP forecast curved hodographs through 1 km, although slightly veered surface flow ahead of the front should limit the overall ambient SRH. ..Barnes.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 47299748 47669719 48299613 48869520 48989465 48779464 48579381 48659322 48639282 48549261 48069314 46869441 46659669 46649724 47299748 Read more

MD 1398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Far southwestern South Dakota and northwestern NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250001Z - 250130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensification will be possible over the next couple of hours across portions of far southwestern SD and northwestern NE. Isolated hail up to 1.00 to 1.75" in diameter and severe wind gusts near 60-70 mph will be possible with the more robust updrafts. DISCUSSION...Both recent satellite and radar imagery indicate updraft intensification is occurring with thunderstorms along a surface trough extending northwest to southeast across the higher terrain. This is also where a mid to upper-level thermal trough exits, coincident with stronger flow aloft. Deep layer effective shear around 35-45 kt will continue to support some updraft organization through this evening. In addition, downstream observations/objective surface analysis suggest these thunderstorms will move into a more buoyant air mass, although CINH does quickly increase further east across much of central NE/SD. The main threat through this evening will likely be severe wind gusts, considering large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads/inverted V profiles, especially with merging thunderstorms and deepening cold pools. Given the expected small area of severe weather concern, weak forcing aloft, and loss of diurnal heating, a WW appears unlikely at this time. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43760299 43820314 43700376 43150335 42700273 42010254 41780232 41410187 41390137 41640092 42070093 42970119 43540194 43760299 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...01z Update Upper Midwest... Much of the previous forecast remains unchanged with only minor modifications. Several areas of scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the northern Red River Valley and upper Midwest. Scattered supercells ahead of the occluded front over northern MN should continue eastward with a risk for damaging gusts and hail this evening before slowly weakening as they encounter decreasing buoyancy near Lake Superior. Farther south, complexities surrounding the isolated ongoing convection in southern WI and additional convective initiation of elevated storms near and north of the effective warm front remain substantial. Storms over southern WI appear likely to continue southeast on the fringes of the better ascent and buoyancy with a risk for damaging gusts and hail this evening. Observational data shows increasing low-level warm-air advection and upper-level ascent could support additional storm development this evening over portions of west-central MN with the potential for rapid upscale growth into a bowing MCS. Substantial spatial uncertainty is also evident in late afternoon CAM guidance, but most guidance now does indicate some form of relatively intense MCS forming along the front in the 02-04z time frame. With 5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE and moderate effective shear in place, a swath of significant damaging winds remains possible over parts of eastern MN, and much of central/southern WI, though with substantial uncertainty. Will maintain level-3 Enhanced wind probabilities as is with minor adjustments to the level-2 Slight over lower MI where storms may persist through the end of the convective period. ...Carolinas... The cold front over the eastern US is slowly moving offshore this evening. Remaining storms have undergone a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity this evening with the cessation of diurnal heating and the weakening of broader-scale forcing for ascent. An isolated damaging gust could occur with the stronger storms centered near the NC/SC border, but the broader severe risk should continue to decrease below MRGL criteria after sunset. ..Lyons.. 06/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...01z Update Upper Midwest... Much of the previous forecast remains unchanged with only minor modifications. Several areas of scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the northern Red River Valley and upper Midwest. Scattered supercells ahead of the occluded front over northern MN should continue eastward with a risk for damaging gusts and hail this evening before slowly weakening as they encounter decreasing buoyancy near Lake Superior. Farther south, complexities surrounding the isolated ongoing convection in southern WI and additional convective initiation of elevated storms near and north of the effective warm front remain substantial. Storms over southern WI appear likely to continue southeast on the fringes of the better ascent and buoyancy with a risk for damaging gusts and hail this evening. Observational data shows increasing low-level warm-air advection and upper-level ascent could support additional storm development this evening over portions of west-central MN with the potential for rapid upscale growth into a bowing MCS. Substantial spatial uncertainty is also evident in late afternoon CAM guidance, but most guidance now does indicate some form of relatively intense MCS forming along the front in the 02-04z time frame. With 5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE and moderate effective shear in place, a swath of significant damaging winds remains possible over parts of eastern MN, and much of central/southern WI, though with substantial uncertainty. Will maintain level-3 Enhanced wind probabilities as is with minor adjustments to the level-2 Slight over lower MI where storms may persist through the end of the convective period. ...Carolinas... The cold front over the eastern US is slowly moving offshore this evening. Remaining storms have undergone a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity this evening with the cessation of diurnal heating and the weakening of broader-scale forcing for ascent. An isolated damaging gust could occur with the stronger storms centered near the NC/SC border, but the broader severe risk should continue to decrease below MRGL criteria after sunset. ..Lyons.. 06/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...01z Update Upper Midwest... Much of the previous forecast remains unchanged with only minor modifications. Several areas of scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the northern Red River Valley and upper Midwest. Scattered supercells ahead of the occluded front over northern MN should continue eastward with a risk for damaging gusts and hail this evening before slowly weakening as they encounter decreasing buoyancy near Lake Superior. Farther south, complexities surrounding the isolated ongoing convection in southern WI and additional convective initiation of elevated storms near and north of the effective warm front remain substantial. Storms over southern WI appear likely to continue southeast on the fringes of the better ascent and buoyancy with a risk for damaging gusts and hail this evening. Observational data shows increasing low-level warm-air advection and upper-level ascent could support additional storm development this evening over portions of west-central MN with the potential for rapid upscale growth into a bowing MCS. Substantial spatial uncertainty is also evident in late afternoon CAM guidance, but most guidance now does indicate some form of relatively intense MCS forming along the front in the 02-04z time frame. With 5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE and moderate effective shear in place, a swath of significant damaging winds remains possible over parts of eastern MN, and much of central/southern WI, though with substantial uncertainty. Will maintain level-3 Enhanced wind probabilities as is with minor adjustments to the level-2 Slight over lower MI where storms may persist through the end of the convective period. ...Carolinas... The cold front over the eastern US is slowly moving offshore this evening. Remaining storms have undergone a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity this evening with the cessation of diurnal heating and the weakening of broader-scale forcing for ascent. An isolated damaging gust could occur with the stronger storms centered near the NC/SC border, but the broader severe risk should continue to decrease below MRGL criteria after sunset. ..Lyons.. 06/25/2024 Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S JMS TO 40 E JMS TO 30 S GFK TO 20 ENE TVF TO 55 SE RRT TO 40 NW INL. ..WENDT..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-021-027-029-057-061-071-087-107-111-113-119-125-159- 167-250240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING MAHNOMEN NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE WADENA WILKIN NDC017-073-077-081-097-250240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 452 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 242250Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 452 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and North-Central Minnesota Eastern North Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Developing supercells along/ahead of a cold front should initially pose a threat for isolated very large hail up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With time this evening, severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph may become more of a concern as thunderstorms potentially develop into one or more small clusters as they spread eastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south of Fargo ND to 45 miles west northwest of International Falls MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 451... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0453 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0453 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0453 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0453 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 453 SEVERE TSTM IL WI LM 250030Z - 250600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 453 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Illinois Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 730 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster should continue to pose some threat for scattered severe/damaging winds generally 60-70 mph as it moves quickly southeastward this evening. Isolated gusts up to 75 mph and hail around 1-1.75 inches in diameter may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Madison WI to 50 miles southeast of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 452... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Minnesota...southwestern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242218Z - 250015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Sustained vigorous thunderstorm development remains uncertain, but seems more likely after sunset than before. Trends are being closely monitored, with rapid thunderstorm intensification possible, including potential for supercells posing a risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, locally damaging downbursts and a risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...As a weak mid-level perturbation progresses through broader-scale anticyclonic flow across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, modest low-level warm advection has become focused east-southeast of a surface low over northeastern South Dakota, across southern Minnesota and adjacent portions of northeastern Iowa/southwestern Wisconsin. This forcing for ascent appears likely to be contributing to the recent thunderstorm initiation near/north of the Interstate 90 corridor of southern Minnesota. The boundary-layer is characterized by seasonably high moisture content and large CAPE beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, but a plume of very warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air is in the process of overspreading much of the region, and some further warming near/below the 700 mb level may still occur into early evening. While it still appears probable that inhibition associated with the warm, dry air aloft will tend to suppress this convection, this is not entirely certain, and the environment is conditionally supportive of intense organized convection give the extreme potential instability. Higher-based ongoing convective development, rooted in warm advection closer to the northeastern periphery of the elevated mixed-layer air, east-southeast of Brainerd, is also being monitored. As this spreads into northwestern Wisconsin this evening, it might undergo considerable further intensification in the presence of increasing lift and instability near the nose of a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (30-50 kt around 850 mb). ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44719324 45239319 46009364 46479382 46569224 45879048 44248951 43559016 43029111 43229272 43819399 44719324 Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE JMS TO 15 S GFK TO 5 WNW TVF TO 35 ENE RRT. ..WENDT..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-021-027-029-057-061-071-077-087-089-107-111-113-119- 125-159-167-250140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLAY CLEARWATER HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE WADENA WILKIN NDC003-017-073-077-081-091-097-250140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STEELE TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ILM TO 45 SE EWN TO HSE. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 451 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 25/00Z. ..KERR..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC019-129-141-250000- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK NEW HANOVER PENDER AMZ154-156-158-231-250-252-250000- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE S OF CAPE HATTERAS NC TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF OCRACOKE INLET NC TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ILM TO 45 SE EWN TO HSE. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 451 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 25/00Z. ..KERR..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC019-129-141-250000- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK NEW HANOVER PENDER AMZ154-156-158-231-250-252-250000- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE S OF CAPE HATTERAS NC TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF OCRACOKE INLET NC TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 451 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 241705Z - 250000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across eastern North Carolina, in a hot and humid environment. Sufficiently strong winds aloft will result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail in the most intense cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Elizabeth City NC to 30 miles south southeast of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Minnesota...southwestern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242218Z - 250015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Sustained vigorous thunderstorm development remains uncertain, but seems more likely after sunset than before. Trends are being closely monitored, with rapid thunderstorm intensification possible, including potential for supercells posing a risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, locally damaging downbursts and a risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...As a weak mid-level perturbation progresses through broader-scale anticyclonic flow across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, modest low-level warm advection has become focused east-southeast of a surface low over northeastern South Dakota, across southern Minnesota and adjacent portions of northeastern Iowa/southwestern Wisconsin. This forcing for ascent appears likely to be contributing to the recent thunderstorm initiation near/north of the Interstate 90 corridor of southern Minnesota. The boundary-layer is characterized by seasonably high moisture content and large CAPE beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, but a plume of very warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air is in the process of overspreading much of the region, and some further warming near/below the 700 mb level may still occur into early evening. While it still appears probable that inhibition associated with the warm, dry air aloft will tend to suppress this convection, this is not entirely certain, and the environment is conditionally supportive of intense organized convection give the extreme potential instability. Higher-based ongoing convective development, rooted in warm advection closer to the northeastern periphery of the elevated mixed-layer air, east-southeast of Brainerd, is also being monitored. As this spreads into northwestern Wisconsin this evening, it might undergo considerable further intensification in the presence of increasing lift and instability near the nose of a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (30-50 kt around 850 mb). ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44719324 45239319 46009364 46479382 46569224 45879048 44248951 43559016 43029111 43229272 43819399 44719324 Read more

MD 1397 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1397 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Northern Minnesota and eastern/southeastern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242231Z - 250000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front through this evening. Large hail up to 1.75-2.50" in diameter and damaging wind gusts near 60-70 mph will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest thunderstorm development will continue to occur along a cold front extending northeast to southwest across portions of far northwestern MN and eastern ND. A moderate to extreme instability axis extends along and ahead of this cold front, where temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s, and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. VAD profiles and objective analysis across this region indicate sufficient deep layer effective shear (40-55 kt) is already in place. Storm organization and a few supercells appear likely along this axis through this evening. Large hail will initially be possible with the more discrete thunderstorms that develop, before cell mergers occur with an accompanying damaging wind threat later this evening as instability wanes. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49289478 49359501 49359514 49069518 48999616 48659642 47999797 47659849 46969846 46569837 46129801 46249736 47259559 48009426 48739425 48819460 49289478 Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ILM TO 45 SE EWN TO HSE. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 451 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 25/00Z. ..KERR..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC019-129-141-250000- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK NEW HANOVER PENDER AMZ154-156-158-231-250-252-250000- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE S OF CAPE HATTERAS NC TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF OCRACOKE INLET NC TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 451 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 241705Z - 250000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across eastern North Carolina, in a hot and humid environment. Sufficiently strong winds aloft will result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail in the most intense cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Elizabeth City NC to 30 miles south southeast of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0452 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more