Severe Storms

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MHN TO 40 ENE ANW TO 40 NNE ONL. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-071-089-115-149-171-183-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN GARFIELD HOLT LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MHN TO 40 ENE ANW TO 40 NNE ONL. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-071-089-115-149-171-183-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN GARFIELD HOLT LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 458 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 252155Z - 260400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Nebraska Southwest and south-central South Dakota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercells should continue to pose a threat for large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter, along with severe/damaging winds of 60-75 mph, as they move east-southeastward this afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Philip SD to 15 miles east southeast of Oneill NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 457... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...ILX...LOT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-015-057-067-071-073-095-099-103-109-123-131-141-143-155- 161-175-179-187-195-203-260240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU CARROLL FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY KNOX LA SALLE LEE MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MERCER OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WOODFORD IAC001-003-007-009-029-031-039-045-049-051-053-057-071-077-085- 087-095-099-101-103-107-111-115-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137- 139-145-153-155-157-159-163-165-173-175-177-179-181-183-185- 260240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON CASS CEDAR CLARKE CLINTON DALLAS Read more

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CDR TO 25 SSW PHP TO 30 E PHP. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-031-071-075-089-091-103-115-149-171-183-260240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHERRY GARFIELD GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER SDC007-095-121-123-260240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT MELLETTE TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PIA TO 15 SE SPI TO 40 NNW SLO TO 25 N SLO TO 25 SSW BMG TO 20 ESE BMG TO 45 NW LUK. ..BENTLEY..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-017-021-051-061-101-117-129-135-137-149-159-167-169- 171-252240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CASS CHRISTIAN FAYETTE GREENE LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT INC005-013-027-031-071-079-083-093-101-252240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PIA TO 15 SE SPI TO 40 NNW SLO TO 25 N SLO TO 25 SSW BMG TO 20 ESE BMG TO 45 NW LUK. ..BENTLEY..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-017-021-051-061-101-117-129-135-137-149-159-167-169- 171-252240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CASS CHRISTIAN FAYETTE GREENE LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT INC005-013-027-031-071-079-083-093-101-252240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PIA TO 15 SE SPI TO 40 NNW SLO TO 25 N SLO TO 25 SSW BMG TO 20 ESE BMG TO 45 NW LUK. ..BENTLEY..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-017-021-051-061-101-117-129-135-137-149-159-167-169- 171-252240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CASS CHRISTIAN FAYETTE GREENE LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT INC005-013-027-031-071-079-083-093-101-252240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN Read more

MD 1400 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1400 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...east central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 250150Z - 250345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation appears increasingly probable during the next hour or two, with a substantive further increase and intensification of storms through 10 PM-1 AM CDT. Initial storms may pose a risk for large hail, before the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts increases overnight. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident within strengthening warm advection across central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin. The warm frontal zone has shifted northward some over the past several hours, but convection has been struggling to overcome inhibition associated with very warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air, despite further low-level moistening. However, as mid/upper flow transitions from broadly anticyclonic to broadly cyclonic, and low-level warm advection strengthens further in response to an intensifying low-level jet, lift appears likely to increasingly overcome inhibition. This probably will allow for a substantive increase in thunderstorm development through the 03-06Z time frame. Initial development may include evolving elevated supercells posing a risk for large hail, before activity gradually consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster with increasing potential to produce damaging wind gusts later tonight. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46329383 46389212 45518962 44379066 44759290 45539427 46329383 Read more