Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FL INTO EASTERN GA AND SOUTHERN SC...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerlies is forecast to extend across the length US/Canada border, from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and Northeast. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within these westerlies, the most prominent of which is a wave that is forecast to progress quickly from central Ontario through southern Quebec and northern ME. Another, low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes. Expansive upper ridging is expected to remain centered over the Four Corners, extending from the southern Great Basin vicinity through the lower MS Valley. Tropical Cyclone Debby is expected to move between the eastern periphery of the Four Corners ridge and subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic, progressing across northern FL and reaching the southeast GA/southern SC vicinity by early Tuesday morning. Surface pattern early Monday is expected to feature a low over the central SD/NE border vicinity, with a stationary front extending eastward from this low across central IA, northern IL, and southern Lower MI before arcing more northeastward along the St. Lawrence Valley to another low over New Brunswick. Eastern portion of this front is expected to progress southeastward across the Northeast throughout the day, while the portion of the front closer to the SD/NE surface low transitions to a warm front amid southerly low-level flow ahead of the low. A cold front will extend westward from the SD/NE surface low into eastern WY, where it intersects lee troughing extending across the northern and central High Plains. This front is expected to push southward across the central Plains as the low progresses eastward/southeastward through IA. ...Northern FL into southern GA and far southern SC... Tropical cyclone Debby is forecast to progress across northern FL throughout the day, reaching the southeast GA/southern SC vicinity by early Tuesday morning. Strong low-level flow attendant to this system will support the potential for tornadoes within deeper, more persistent updrafts. These updrafts are most likely in the areas where dewpoints exceed 74/75 deg F. This appears most likely across northern FL and southeast GA. However, a more westerly track would allow this more favorable low-level moisture to penetrate inland more of southern GA and perhaps even southern SC. 5-percent tornado probabilities were adjusted northward to account for this possibility. ...Northern OH Valley through the Northeast/New England... Thunderstorm development is anticipated Monday afternoon along the length of the cold front extending from ME into northern IN/OH. Dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s across central ME to the low 70s across IN/OH will support moderate buoyancy, with the strongest buoyancy across the OH Valley where greater low-level moisture exists. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region as well, with the stronger flow and greater vertical shear expected across New England. While there is some displacement between the strongest shear and greatest buoyancy, there is still enough overlap to support scattered strong to severe storms, including even some supercells across New England. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Upper Midwest... Late afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected near the surface low and associated warm front moving across IA. The airmass will be very unstable, supported by temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Even so, there is some question whether true warm sector storms will initiate, given the potential for significant mixing and warm mid-level temperatures. Storms north of the warm front could still pose a severe risk, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. A surface-based, warm sector storm would have these threat as well, but with an added potential for very large hail and potentially even a tornado or two, given the potential for a supercellular mode. After the initial cellular mode, a quick transition to a more linear/forward-propagating mode is expected. ...Northern Rockies... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern periphery of the ridge across the northern Rockies Monday afternoon. Ascent and increased mid-level moisture attendant to this wave combined with orographic ascent and deep boundary-layer mixing will help support afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to some organized, more persistent updrafts. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates will help support damaging gusts with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FL INTO EASTERN GA AND SOUTHERN SC...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerlies is forecast to extend across the length US/Canada border, from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and Northeast. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within these westerlies, the most prominent of which is a wave that is forecast to progress quickly from central Ontario through southern Quebec and northern ME. Another, low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes. Expansive upper ridging is expected to remain centered over the Four Corners, extending from the southern Great Basin vicinity through the lower MS Valley. Tropical Cyclone Debby is expected to move between the eastern periphery of the Four Corners ridge and subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic, progressing across northern FL and reaching the southeast GA/southern SC vicinity by early Tuesday morning. Surface pattern early Monday is expected to feature a low over the central SD/NE border vicinity, with a stationary front extending eastward from this low across central IA, northern IL, and southern Lower MI before arcing more northeastward along the St. Lawrence Valley to another low over New Brunswick. Eastern portion of this front is expected to progress southeastward across the Northeast throughout the day, while the portion of the front closer to the SD/NE surface low transitions to a warm front amid southerly low-level flow ahead of the low. A cold front will extend westward from the SD/NE surface low into eastern WY, where it intersects lee troughing extending across the northern and central High Plains. This front is expected to push southward across the central Plains as the low progresses eastward/southeastward through IA. ...Northern FL into southern GA and far southern SC... Tropical cyclone Debby is forecast to progress across northern FL throughout the day, reaching the southeast GA/southern SC vicinity by early Tuesday morning. Strong low-level flow attendant to this system will support the potential for tornadoes within deeper, more persistent updrafts. These updrafts are most likely in the areas where dewpoints exceed 74/75 deg F. This appears most likely across northern FL and southeast GA. However, a more westerly track would allow this more favorable low-level moisture to penetrate inland more of southern GA and perhaps even southern SC. 5-percent tornado probabilities were adjusted northward to account for this possibility. ...Northern OH Valley through the Northeast/New England... Thunderstorm development is anticipated Monday afternoon along the length of the cold front extending from ME into northern IN/OH. Dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s across central ME to the low 70s across IN/OH will support moderate buoyancy, with the strongest buoyancy across the OH Valley where greater low-level moisture exists. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region as well, with the stronger flow and greater vertical shear expected across New England. While there is some displacement between the strongest shear and greatest buoyancy, there is still enough overlap to support scattered strong to severe storms, including even some supercells across New England. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Upper Midwest... Late afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected near the surface low and associated warm front moving across IA. The airmass will be very unstable, supported by temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Even so, there is some question whether true warm sector storms will initiate, given the potential for significant mixing and warm mid-level temperatures. Storms north of the warm front could still pose a severe risk, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. A surface-based, warm sector storm would have these threat as well, but with an added potential for very large hail and potentially even a tornado or two, given the potential for a supercellular mode. After the initial cellular mode, a quick transition to a more linear/forward-propagating mode is expected. ...Northern Rockies... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern periphery of the ridge across the northern Rockies Monday afternoon. Ascent and increased mid-level moisture attendant to this wave combined with orographic ascent and deep boundary-layer mixing will help support afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to some organized, more persistent updrafts. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates will help support damaging gusts with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...Update... Latest observational trends in satellite data, combined with recent CAMs and other model output, suggest the most likely area for isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will be shifted southeast from the previous forecast across portions of central UT, southern WY, and western CO, with a small area of additional elevated, dry thunderstorms possible near and east/northeast of the Cascades of OR. These areas will have relatively lower PWATs and drier boundary layer conditions this afternoon. Further north across MT and the rest of WY, wetting thunderstorms are anticipated within an area of stronger mid-level ascent and deeper moisture. In addition, very few thunderstorms are now expected to develop over ID on the backside of an exiting vorticity maximum, and as a result, dry Thunderstorms have been removed from the forecast there. For additional details pertaining to the unchanged Elevated area for windy and dry conditions this afternoon across the High Plains of WY, SD, and NE please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...Update... Latest observational trends in satellite data, combined with recent CAMs and other model output, suggest the most likely area for isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will be shifted southeast from the previous forecast across portions of central UT, southern WY, and western CO, with a small area of additional elevated, dry thunderstorms possible near and east/northeast of the Cascades of OR. These areas will have relatively lower PWATs and drier boundary layer conditions this afternoon. Further north across MT and the rest of WY, wetting thunderstorms are anticipated within an area of stronger mid-level ascent and deeper moisture. In addition, very few thunderstorms are now expected to develop over ID on the backside of an exiting vorticity maximum, and as a result, dry Thunderstorms have been removed from the forecast there. For additional details pertaining to the unchanged Elevated area for windy and dry conditions this afternoon across the High Plains of WY, SD, and NE please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...Update... Latest observational trends in satellite data, combined with recent CAMs and other model output, suggest the most likely area for isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will be shifted southeast from the previous forecast across portions of central UT, southern WY, and western CO, with a small area of additional elevated, dry thunderstorms possible near and east/northeast of the Cascades of OR. These areas will have relatively lower PWATs and drier boundary layer conditions this afternoon. Further north across MT and the rest of WY, wetting thunderstorms are anticipated within an area of stronger mid-level ascent and deeper moisture. In addition, very few thunderstorms are now expected to develop over ID on the backside of an exiting vorticity maximum, and as a result, dry Thunderstorms have been removed from the forecast there. For additional details pertaining to the unchanged Elevated area for windy and dry conditions this afternoon across the High Plains of WY, SD, and NE please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...Update... Latest observational trends in satellite data, combined with recent CAMs and other model output, suggest the most likely area for isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will be shifted southeast from the previous forecast across portions of central UT, southern WY, and western CO, with a small area of additional elevated, dry thunderstorms possible near and east/northeast of the Cascades of OR. These areas will have relatively lower PWATs and drier boundary layer conditions this afternoon. Further north across MT and the rest of WY, wetting thunderstorms are anticipated within an area of stronger mid-level ascent and deeper moisture. In addition, very few thunderstorms are now expected to develop over ID on the backside of an exiting vorticity maximum, and as a result, dry Thunderstorms have been removed from the forecast there. For additional details pertaining to the unchanged Elevated area for windy and dry conditions this afternoon across the High Plains of WY, SD, and NE please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...Update... Latest observational trends in satellite data, combined with recent CAMs and other model output, suggest the most likely area for isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will be shifted southeast from the previous forecast across portions of central UT, southern WY, and western CO, with a small area of additional elevated, dry thunderstorms possible near and east/northeast of the Cascades of OR. These areas will have relatively lower PWATs and drier boundary layer conditions this afternoon. Further north across MT and the rest of WY, wetting thunderstorms are anticipated within an area of stronger mid-level ascent and deeper moisture. In addition, very few thunderstorms are now expected to develop over ID on the backside of an exiting vorticity maximum, and as a result, dry Thunderstorms have been removed from the forecast there. For additional details pertaining to the unchanged Elevated area for windy and dry conditions this afternoon across the High Plains of WY, SD, and NE please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...Update... Latest observational trends in satellite data, combined with recent CAMs and other model output, suggest the most likely area for isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will be shifted southeast from the previous forecast across portions of central UT, southern WY, and western CO, with a small area of additional elevated, dry thunderstorms possible near and east/northeast of the Cascades of OR. These areas will have relatively lower PWATs and drier boundary layer conditions this afternoon. Further north across MT and the rest of WY, wetting thunderstorms are anticipated within an area of stronger mid-level ascent and deeper moisture. In addition, very few thunderstorms are now expected to develop over ID on the backside of an exiting vorticity maximum, and as a result, dry Thunderstorms have been removed from the forecast there. For additional details pertaining to the unchanged Elevated area for windy and dry conditions this afternoon across the High Plains of WY, SD, and NE please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...Update... Latest observational trends in satellite data, combined with recent CAMs and other model output, suggest the most likely area for isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will be shifted southeast from the previous forecast across portions of central UT, southern WY, and western CO, with a small area of additional elevated, dry thunderstorms possible near and east/northeast of the Cascades of OR. These areas will have relatively lower PWATs and drier boundary layer conditions this afternoon. Further north across MT and the rest of WY, wetting thunderstorms are anticipated within an area of stronger mid-level ascent and deeper moisture. In addition, very few thunderstorms are now expected to develop over ID on the backside of an exiting vorticity maximum, and as a result, dry Thunderstorms have been removed from the forecast there. For additional details pertaining to the unchanged Elevated area for windy and dry conditions this afternoon across the High Plains of WY, SD, and NE please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024 Read more

MD 1813 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 1813 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Areas affected...portions of the western and central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 041432Z - 041600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Increasing diurnal heating on the outer envelope of intensifying TC Debby will likely support supercell development through much of the Day. Intensifying low-level shear may support a few tornadoes. A new Tornado Watch is likely. DISCUSSION...As of 1425 UTC, regional radar analysis placed the developing center of intensifying TC Debby approximately 105 nm west-southwest of KTBW. Latest NHC projections show continued intensification of the system west of the FL Peninsula. To the east of the main envelope of the TC, diurnal heating has commenced inland with temperatures warming into the mid 80s F. As heating continues, moderate buoyancy will likely support the development of scattered thunderstorms on the outer convergence bands. As the TC deepens, low-level wind fields should intensify through the morning and early afternoon. area VADs already show 0-1km SRH around 200-250 m2/s2 with weak mesocyclones noted within some of the stronger convective elements. As low-level shear intensifies, continued low-level updraft rotation appears probable with mini supercell structures. A few tornadoes are likely as storms intensify within the deepening buoyancy and stronger shear regime. Model guidance and observational trends suggest tornado potential is highest where the low-level flow retains the most easterly component, roughly along and north of the I-4 corridor later today. However, given the expected intensification of Debby, tornadoes will be possible across much of the western and central Peninsula as the bands move onshore and encounter stronger shear/buoyancy. Given the increasing risk for tornadoes, a Tornado Watch will likely be needed. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 25778137 26018176 26418191 26728223 27758282 28658270 29208306 29778348 30088398 30128424 30438424 30638396 30638301 30478247 29388163 28708135 27838109 26708098 26248100 25668119 25778137 Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0594 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0594 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0594 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more