Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight. ...Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish with southeast extent by 02-03z. ...Southeast Montana Vicinity... The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so the Marginal risk has been maintained. ...Florida... A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595. ...Minnesota/Iowa... Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight. ...Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish with southeast extent by 02-03z. ...Southeast Montana Vicinity... The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so the Marginal risk has been maintained. ...Florida... A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595. ...Minnesota/Iowa... Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight. ...Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish with southeast extent by 02-03z. ...Southeast Montana Vicinity... The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so the Marginal risk has been maintained. ...Florida... A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595. ...Minnesota/Iowa... Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2024 Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW FMY TO 15 NNW FMY TO 15 SW MLB. ..GOSS..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MFL...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-015-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057- 065-067-069-073-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109- 115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-042340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEON LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA WAKULLA GAC027-101-131-185-275-042340- GA Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW FMY TO 15 NNW FMY TO 15 SW MLB. ..GOSS..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MFL...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-015-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057- 065-067-069-073-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109- 115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-042340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEON LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA WAKULLA GAC027-101-131-185-275-042340- GA Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW FMY TO 15 NNW FMY TO 15 SW MLB. ..GOSS..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MFL...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-015-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057- 065-067-069-073-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109- 115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-042340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEON LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA WAKULLA GAC027-101-131-185-275-042340- GA Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW FMY TO 15 NNW FMY TO 15 SW MLB. ..GOSS..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MFL...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-015-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057- 065-067-069-073-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109- 115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-042340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEON LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA WAKULLA GAC027-101-131-185-275-042340- GA Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW FMY TO 15 NNW FMY TO 15 SW MLB. ..GOSS..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MFL...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-015-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057- 065-067-069-073-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109- 115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-042340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEON LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA WAKULLA GAC027-101-131-185-275-042340- GA Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0595 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0595 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1818 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 594... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1818 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0605 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Areas affected...much of central and northern Florida and into southern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 594... Valid 042305Z - 050000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 594 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated/embedded rotating storms within T.S. Debby's convective bands will continue to pose a risk for brief tornadoes this evening and tonight. A new Tornado Watch will be issued within the hour, given the scheduled 05/00 expiration of WW 594. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows the center of T.S. Debby to be located roughly 60 nautical miles west of KCLW (Clearwater, FL) at this time, and moving slowly northward. Over the past couple of hours, a few cells within the convective bands surrounding Debby have exhibited rotation -- suggestive that some tornado risk persists at this hour. Tornado potential may increase slightly with time, as Debby likely strengthens to a category 1 Hurricane over the next several hours, per expectations laid out in the latest National Hurricane Center forecasts. With Tornado Watch 594 set to expire at 05/00Z, a new tornado watch will be issued covering much of the same region, though not extending as far south as the current watch. ..Goss.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 27368349 28438397 30118462 30958427 31058178 30758115 28628063 27608063 26148189 25928266 27368349 Read more

MD 1817 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA...WESTERN DAKOTAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1817 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Areas affected...central and eastern Montana...western Dakotas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042207Z - 050000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging wind to increase through the afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...A shortwave moving eastward across Montana this afternoon will provide forcing for ascent to erode MLCIN and result in thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Across central/eastern Montana, daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Surface objective analysis and forecast soundings also show profiles with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, deeply mixed profiles, and large dew point depressions which all favor downward momentum transfer. Deep layer shear 30-40 kts should provide organization for storms to grow upscale and present risk of damaging wind. A watch may be needed in the next couple of hours. ..Thornton/Smith.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... LAT...LON 45291035 46300982 46830821 46880619 46820505 46640392 46410358 45940359 45710365 45400391 45220427 45050504 45010572 44980656 44980762 44920981 44881010 45291035 Read more

MD 1816 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 594... FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1816 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Areas affected...much of the Florida Peninsula and far southern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 594... Valid 042053Z - 042300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 594 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado risk continues across FL and far southern GA. The greatest risk should gradually drift north toward the FL/GA border later this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, convection associated with the outer bands of TS Debby continues to move across the central and northern FL Peninsula. Periodic updraft rotation has been noted with some of the stronger cells over the last several hours. However, the expanding CDO noted with Debby's outflow has gradually expanded inland, limiting diurnal heating. MLCAPE has started to decrease below 1000 J/kg reducing overall convective intensity of the observed bands. That, in combination with a more linear dominant storm mode, has stifled tornado potential somewhat so far this afternoon. Still, as Debby continues to deepen, already strong low-level shear (TBW VAD 600+ m2/s2 ESRH) should continue to intensify and shift northeast of the center. This will support low-level updraft rotation and the potential for a few tornadoes with any sustained convection. ..Lyons.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 30498442 30838423 30908291 30798195 30068151 29288112 28288076 27408059 26758085 26358123 26298147 26328179 26488223 26968245 27848283 28708261 29128294 29648357 29908419 30498442 Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW FMY TO 15 NNW FMY TO 15 SW MLB. ..GOSS..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MFL...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-015-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057- 065-067-069-073-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109- 115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-042340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEON LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA WAKULLA GAC027-101-131-185-275-042340- GA Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW FMY TO 15 NNW FMY TO 15 SW MLB. ..GOSS..08/04/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MFL...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-015-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057- 065-067-069-073-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109- 115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-042340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CHARLOTTE CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEON LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA WAKULLA GAC027-101-131-185-275-042340- GA Read more

WW 594 TORNADO FL GA CW 041455Z - 050000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Northern Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1055 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity within the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby this afternoon. As wind fields strengthen, the potential will exist for a few tornadoes in the stronger cells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Valdosta GA to 20 miles southeast of Naples FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest D3/Tuesday atop an upper ridge, while the ridge is shunted south and slightly eastward. The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward into the Great Plains D4/Wednesday, with some narrow bands of modest mid-level flow accompanying it across the northern Great Basin and Rockies. Generally, weaker flow is expected through most of the troposphere after D4/Wednesday across much of the central and western CONUS through D8/Sunday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies D3/Tuesday. Sufficient monsoonal moisture within and on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, above drier boundary layer conditions, will continue to support dry thunderstorm chances over receptive fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and western/northwestern CO. PWATs are expected to fall across these regions into D4/Wednesday, although the area of 10 percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorms will become more confined to western CO and eastern UT by then as the main shortwave trough moves into the Northern Great Plains. ...Dry and Windy... Increasing west-northwesterly surface winds will develop D4/Wednesday across the Upper Snake River Plain/southeast ID and Wyoming Basin via a tightening surface pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft under a belt of relatively stronger mid-level flow. While fuels should remain less receptive across southeast ID during this time, hot and dry conditions will combine with these breezier winds across southwest WY where they should remain more receptive. A small 40 percent Critical area has been introduced there. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest D3/Tuesday atop an upper ridge, while the ridge is shunted south and slightly eastward. The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward into the Great Plains D4/Wednesday, with some narrow bands of modest mid-level flow accompanying it across the northern Great Basin and Rockies. Generally, weaker flow is expected through most of the troposphere after D4/Wednesday across much of the central and western CONUS through D8/Sunday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies D3/Tuesday. Sufficient monsoonal moisture within and on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, above drier boundary layer conditions, will continue to support dry thunderstorm chances over receptive fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and western/northwestern CO. PWATs are expected to fall across these regions into D4/Wednesday, although the area of 10 percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorms will become more confined to western CO and eastern UT by then as the main shortwave trough moves into the Northern Great Plains. ...Dry and Windy... Increasing west-northwesterly surface winds will develop D4/Wednesday across the Upper Snake River Plain/southeast ID and Wyoming Basin via a tightening surface pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft under a belt of relatively stronger mid-level flow. While fuels should remain less receptive across southeast ID during this time, hot and dry conditions will combine with these breezier winds across southwest WY where they should remain more receptive. A small 40 percent Critical area has been introduced there. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest D3/Tuesday atop an upper ridge, while the ridge is shunted south and slightly eastward. The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward into the Great Plains D4/Wednesday, with some narrow bands of modest mid-level flow accompanying it across the northern Great Basin and Rockies. Generally, weaker flow is expected through most of the troposphere after D4/Wednesday across much of the central and western CONUS through D8/Sunday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies D3/Tuesday. Sufficient monsoonal moisture within and on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, above drier boundary layer conditions, will continue to support dry thunderstorm chances over receptive fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and western/northwestern CO. PWATs are expected to fall across these regions into D4/Wednesday, although the area of 10 percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorms will become more confined to western CO and eastern UT by then as the main shortwave trough moves into the Northern Great Plains. ...Dry and Windy... Increasing west-northwesterly surface winds will develop D4/Wednesday across the Upper Snake River Plain/southeast ID and Wyoming Basin via a tightening surface pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft under a belt of relatively stronger mid-level flow. While fuels should remain less receptive across southeast ID during this time, hot and dry conditions will combine with these breezier winds across southwest WY where they should remain more receptive. A small 40 percent Critical area has been introduced there. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough will traverse the Pacific Northwest D3/Tuesday atop an upper ridge, while the ridge is shunted south and slightly eastward. The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward into the Great Plains D4/Wednesday, with some narrow bands of modest mid-level flow accompanying it across the northern Great Basin and Rockies. Generally, weaker flow is expected through most of the troposphere after D4/Wednesday across much of the central and western CONUS through D8/Sunday. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies D3/Tuesday. Sufficient monsoonal moisture within and on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, above drier boundary layer conditions, will continue to support dry thunderstorm chances over receptive fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and western/northwestern CO. PWATs are expected to fall across these regions into D4/Wednesday, although the area of 10 percent Isolated Dry Thunderstorms will become more confined to western CO and eastern UT by then as the main shortwave trough moves into the Northern Great Plains. ...Dry and Windy... Increasing west-northwesterly surface winds will develop D4/Wednesday across the Upper Snake River Plain/southeast ID and Wyoming Basin via a tightening surface pressure gradient, and momentum transfer from aloft under a belt of relatively stronger mid-level flow. While fuels should remain less receptive across southeast ID during this time, hot and dry conditions will combine with these breezier winds across southwest WY where they should remain more receptive. A small 40 percent Critical area has been introduced there. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more