SPC MD 1444

1 year 1 month ago
MD 1444 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1444 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into northeast South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271714Z - 271945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms will likely erupt along the length of a surface trough after about 18Z, with isolated severe gusts possible. DISCUSSION...A front currently extends from northeast NC into northern SD, with mid to upper 70s F dewpoints to the south and toward the coast. Visible satellite imagery show ample heating occurring, which will lead to steep low-level lapse rates and strong instability. Modified morning soundings indicate tall CAPE profiles with MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, along with PWAT around 2 IN. Given the focused area for developing and favorable diurnal timing, a isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out with occasional wet microbursts. While shear is weak, sufficient westerlies aloft suggest storm that form inland will push across coastal areas later this afternoon, possibly remaining strong. ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... LAT...LON 33377879 33257934 33387972 33788011 34288019 34558002 34697940 35177809 35887656 36267569 35787536 35217546 34577645 33807796 33377879 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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