Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms posing at least some risk for severe weather may impact coastal Georgia and South Carolina, a corridor across the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, parts of the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains, and southern Arizona Tuesday into Tuesday evening. ...Synopsis... As northwestern Canadian mid-level ridging elongates eastward, evolving positively tilted troughing to its south is forecast to dig toward the western and central Canadian/U.S. border through this period. This may begin to suppress an initially expansive ridge in the lower latitudes of the western and central U.S., including a gradual transition of flow from broadly anticyclonic to cyclonic across the northern Rockies into northern Great Plains late Tuesday through Tuesday night. Downstream, a persistent slow moving mid-level low, initially over northern Quebec, is forecast to redevelop eastward offshore, to the south of Greenland, where significant surface cyclogenesis may take place in response to forcing associated with a vigorous short wave impulse accelerating east of the Canadian Maritimes. However, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will linger across the eastern Canadian provinces and much of the Northeast, reinforced by another perturbation digging southeast of Hudson/James Bays. In response to these developments, an initial surface cold front is forecast to slowly advance southward through the northern Mid Atlantic, south of the southern Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, and perhaps more rapidly through the lower Missouri Valley and Great Plains. Farther south, between the Southwestern mid-level high and another high over the subtropical western Atlantic, the remnant circulation of what is now Hurricane Debby may only very slowly migrate eastward across southeastern Georgia coastal areas. ...Coastal Georgia/South Carolina... Forcing for ascent, boundary-layer buoyancy and low-level shear may remain conducive to convective development with potential to produce tornadoes into at least early Tuesday. However, this potential will be limited by the slow motion of the lingering tropical cyclone, and may largely become confined offshore of coastal areas later Tuesday/Tuesday night. ...Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic... Westerly mid-level flow is still generally forecast to begin to weaken Tuesday, and there may be a tendency for the front and/or preceding outflow to advance south of the stronger lingering flow. Peak afternoon boundary-layer instability in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the front may also not be as large as preceding days. However, it might still become sufficient to support scattered organizing thunderstorm activity with potential to produce locally damaging wind gusts Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains... Downstream of the approaching mid-level trough, it appears that destabilization across the higher terrain of west central and southern Montana will become supportive of scattered strong thunderstorm development. Low-level moisture may become sufficient to support CAPE on the order of 1000+ J/kg, in the presence of strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (around 40-70+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer). This environment may become conducive to widely scattered supercells with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. It also still appears possible that forcing for ascent, associated with low-level warm advection, could eventually contribute to an upscale growing cluster accompanied by increasing potential for severe surface gusts while spreading into the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations through Tuesday evening. ...Southern Arizona... Models indicate that a strengthening easterly flow (to 20-30 kts) at mid/upper levels by Tuesday afternoon may aid propagation of developing thunderstorm activity off the higher terrain of southeastern Arizona and adjacent portions of Sonora. A very warm and deeply mixed boundary layer across the lower deserts is forecast to become moderately unstable with CAPE up to around 2000+ J/kg. This will support potential for upscale growth along strengthening convective outflow, accompanied by continuing potential for strong to severe surface gusts into Tuesday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave impulses/convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate through a broad area of northwesterly upper level flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an shortwave trough embedded within the Hudson Bay upper cyclone will pivot east/southeast toward the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest, resulting in enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, Hurricane Debbie is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the Florida Big Bend and move northeast into southeast GA. Otherwise, an expansive upper anticyclone will overspread much of the Great Basin/Four Corners region into the Lower MS Valley. ...IN/OH/MI into the Northeast... West/southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase through the day as the upper shortwave trough moves east across Ontario and into Quebec. While deep-layer flow will mostly be unidirectional, increasing midlevel flow will support effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but a moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will foster MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s F will steepen low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with forecast hodographs becoming elongated/straight above around 2.5 km. This environment should support a mix of supercells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated large hail. Further west across southern Lower MI, northern IN/OH and western PA, stronger instability is forecast. A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will be possible as an initial shortwave moves across the area during the morning. Convection is then expected to form during the afternoon and evening as a surface cold front sags southward across the Great Lakes. While greater instability is forecast, the stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the northeast across New England. Furthermore, morning convection could be detrimental to afternoon storms depending how prevalent convection is and how much cloud cover lingers over the area. Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will be present along with modest vertical shear, supporting some risk of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail. ...MN/IA into WI/IL... A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Mid-MO Valley during the afternoon/evening. A warm front will extend east/southeast from the low across northern IA/IL. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the surface warm front. However, it remains uncertain if warm-sector convection will develop, or if convection will mostly be elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Regardless, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid a very moist (70s F dewpoints) and unstable airmass. Elevated convection will pose a risk for large hail. If warm midlevel temps/capping can be overcome and storms develop with the warm sector, all severe hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes. Initial cellular convection will likely develop into a more linear, forward-propagating mode during the evening as storms move into southern WI and northern IL. Given uncertainty regarding warm sector development, have maintained probabilities from the previous Day 2 outlook, but upgrades could become necessary if trends toward warm-sector supercell development increase. ...FL/GA/SC... The National Hurricane Center forecast has Hurricane Debbie making landfall along the FL Big Bend vicinity this morning, and becoming centered over southeast GA by Tuesday morning. Within the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone across northern FL/southeast GA and coastal SC, low-level SRH will be maximized within an airmass characterized by mid 70s F dewpoints. Tornado potential will accompany any deeper updrafts across this area. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon/evening as a weak upper shortwave trough impinging on the region brings increasing ascent and midlevel moisture to the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support up to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes will allow for organization of deeper updrafts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow gusts with this activity. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave impulses/convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate through a broad area of northwesterly upper level flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an shortwave trough embedded within the Hudson Bay upper cyclone will pivot east/southeast toward the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest, resulting in enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, Hurricane Debbie is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the Florida Big Bend and move northeast into southeast GA. Otherwise, an expansive upper anticyclone will overspread much of the Great Basin/Four Corners region into the Lower MS Valley. ...IN/OH/MI into the Northeast... West/southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase through the day as the upper shortwave trough moves east across Ontario and into Quebec. While deep-layer flow will mostly be unidirectional, increasing midlevel flow will support effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but a moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will foster MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s F will steepen low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with forecast hodographs becoming elongated/straight above around 2.5 km. This environment should support a mix of supercells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated large hail. Further west across southern Lower MI, northern IN/OH and western PA, stronger instability is forecast. A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will be possible as an initial shortwave moves across the area during the morning. Convection is then expected to form during the afternoon and evening as a surface cold front sags southward across the Great Lakes. While greater instability is forecast, the stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the northeast across New England. Furthermore, morning convection could be detrimental to afternoon storms depending how prevalent convection is and how much cloud cover lingers over the area. Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will be present along with modest vertical shear, supporting some risk of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail. ...MN/IA into WI/IL... A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Mid-MO Valley during the afternoon/evening. A warm front will extend east/southeast from the low across northern IA/IL. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the surface warm front. However, it remains uncertain if warm-sector convection will develop, or if convection will mostly be elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Regardless, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid a very moist (70s F dewpoints) and unstable airmass. Elevated convection will pose a risk for large hail. If warm midlevel temps/capping can be overcome and storms develop with the warm sector, all severe hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes. Initial cellular convection will likely develop into a more linear, forward-propagating mode during the evening as storms move into southern WI and northern IL. Given uncertainty regarding warm sector development, have maintained probabilities from the previous Day 2 outlook, but upgrades could become necessary if trends toward warm-sector supercell development increase. ...FL/GA/SC... The National Hurricane Center forecast has Hurricane Debbie making landfall along the FL Big Bend vicinity this morning, and becoming centered over southeast GA by Tuesday morning. Within the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone across northern FL/southeast GA and coastal SC, low-level SRH will be maximized within an airmass characterized by mid 70s F dewpoints. Tornado potential will accompany any deeper updrafts across this area. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon/evening as a weak upper shortwave trough impinging on the region brings increasing ascent and midlevel moisture to the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support up to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes will allow for organization of deeper updrafts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow gusts with this activity. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave impulses/convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate through a broad area of northwesterly upper level flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an shortwave trough embedded within the Hudson Bay upper cyclone will pivot east/southeast toward the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest, resulting in enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, Hurricane Debbie is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the Florida Big Bend and move northeast into southeast GA. Otherwise, an expansive upper anticyclone will overspread much of the Great Basin/Four Corners region into the Lower MS Valley. ...IN/OH/MI into the Northeast... West/southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase through the day as the upper shortwave trough moves east across Ontario and into Quebec. While deep-layer flow will mostly be unidirectional, increasing midlevel flow will support effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but a moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will foster MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s F will steepen low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with forecast hodographs becoming elongated/straight above around 2.5 km. This environment should support a mix of supercells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated large hail. Further west across southern Lower MI, northern IN/OH and western PA, stronger instability is forecast. A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will be possible as an initial shortwave moves across the area during the morning. Convection is then expected to form during the afternoon and evening as a surface cold front sags southward across the Great Lakes. While greater instability is forecast, the stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the northeast across New England. Furthermore, morning convection could be detrimental to afternoon storms depending how prevalent convection is and how much cloud cover lingers over the area. Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will be present along with modest vertical shear, supporting some risk of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail. ...MN/IA into WI/IL... A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Mid-MO Valley during the afternoon/evening. A warm front will extend east/southeast from the low across northern IA/IL. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the surface warm front. However, it remains uncertain if warm-sector convection will develop, or if convection will mostly be elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Regardless, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid a very moist (70s F dewpoints) and unstable airmass. Elevated convection will pose a risk for large hail. If warm midlevel temps/capping can be overcome and storms develop with the warm sector, all severe hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes. Initial cellular convection will likely develop into a more linear, forward-propagating mode during the evening as storms move into southern WI and northern IL. Given uncertainty regarding warm sector development, have maintained probabilities from the previous Day 2 outlook, but upgrades could become necessary if trends toward warm-sector supercell development increase. ...FL/GA/SC... The National Hurricane Center forecast has Hurricane Debbie making landfall along the FL Big Bend vicinity this morning, and becoming centered over southeast GA by Tuesday morning. Within the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone across northern FL/southeast GA and coastal SC, low-level SRH will be maximized within an airmass characterized by mid 70s F dewpoints. Tornado potential will accompany any deeper updrafts across this area. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon/evening as a weak upper shortwave trough impinging on the region brings increasing ascent and midlevel moisture to the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support up to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes will allow for organization of deeper updrafts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow gusts with this activity. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave impulses/convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate through a broad area of northwesterly upper level flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an shortwave trough embedded within the Hudson Bay upper cyclone will pivot east/southeast toward the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest, resulting in enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, Hurricane Debbie is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the Florida Big Bend and move northeast into southeast GA. Otherwise, an expansive upper anticyclone will overspread much of the Great Basin/Four Corners region into the Lower MS Valley. ...IN/OH/MI into the Northeast... West/southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase through the day as the upper shortwave trough moves east across Ontario and into Quebec. While deep-layer flow will mostly be unidirectional, increasing midlevel flow will support effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but a moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will foster MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s F will steepen low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with forecast hodographs becoming elongated/straight above around 2.5 km. This environment should support a mix of supercells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated large hail. Further west across southern Lower MI, northern IN/OH and western PA, stronger instability is forecast. A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will be possible as an initial shortwave moves across the area during the morning. Convection is then expected to form during the afternoon and evening as a surface cold front sags southward across the Great Lakes. While greater instability is forecast, the stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the northeast across New England. Furthermore, morning convection could be detrimental to afternoon storms depending how prevalent convection is and how much cloud cover lingers over the area. Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will be present along with modest vertical shear, supporting some risk of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail. ...MN/IA into WI/IL... A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Mid-MO Valley during the afternoon/evening. A warm front will extend east/southeast from the low across northern IA/IL. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the surface warm front. However, it remains uncertain if warm-sector convection will develop, or if convection will mostly be elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Regardless, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid a very moist (70s F dewpoints) and unstable airmass. Elevated convection will pose a risk for large hail. If warm midlevel temps/capping can be overcome and storms develop with the warm sector, all severe hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes. Initial cellular convection will likely develop into a more linear, forward-propagating mode during the evening as storms move into southern WI and northern IL. Given uncertainty regarding warm sector development, have maintained probabilities from the previous Day 2 outlook, but upgrades could become necessary if trends toward warm-sector supercell development increase. ...FL/GA/SC... The National Hurricane Center forecast has Hurricane Debbie making landfall along the FL Big Bend vicinity this morning, and becoming centered over southeast GA by Tuesday morning. Within the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone across northern FL/southeast GA and coastal SC, low-level SRH will be maximized within an airmass characterized by mid 70s F dewpoints. Tornado potential will accompany any deeper updrafts across this area. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon/evening as a weak upper shortwave trough impinging on the region brings increasing ascent and midlevel moisture to the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support up to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes will allow for organization of deeper updrafts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow gusts with this activity. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave impulses/convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate through a broad area of northwesterly upper level flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an shortwave trough embedded within the Hudson Bay upper cyclone will pivot east/southeast toward the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest, resulting in enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, Hurricane Debbie is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the Florida Big Bend and move northeast into southeast GA. Otherwise, an expansive upper anticyclone will overspread much of the Great Basin/Four Corners region into the Lower MS Valley. ...IN/OH/MI into the Northeast... West/southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase through the day as the upper shortwave trough moves east across Ontario and into Quebec. While deep-layer flow will mostly be unidirectional, increasing midlevel flow will support effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but a moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will foster MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s F will steepen low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with forecast hodographs becoming elongated/straight above around 2.5 km. This environment should support a mix of supercells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated large hail. Further west across southern Lower MI, northern IN/OH and western PA, stronger instability is forecast. A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will be possible as an initial shortwave moves across the area during the morning. Convection is then expected to form during the afternoon and evening as a surface cold front sags southward across the Great Lakes. While greater instability is forecast, the stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the northeast across New England. Furthermore, morning convection could be detrimental to afternoon storms depending how prevalent convection is and how much cloud cover lingers over the area. Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will be present along with modest vertical shear, supporting some risk of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail. ...MN/IA into WI/IL... A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Mid-MO Valley during the afternoon/evening. A warm front will extend east/southeast from the low across northern IA/IL. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the surface warm front. However, it remains uncertain if warm-sector convection will develop, or if convection will mostly be elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Regardless, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid a very moist (70s F dewpoints) and unstable airmass. Elevated convection will pose a risk for large hail. If warm midlevel temps/capping can be overcome and storms develop with the warm sector, all severe hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes. Initial cellular convection will likely develop into a more linear, forward-propagating mode during the evening as storms move into southern WI and northern IL. Given uncertainty regarding warm sector development, have maintained probabilities from the previous Day 2 outlook, but upgrades could become necessary if trends toward warm-sector supercell development increase. ...FL/GA/SC... The National Hurricane Center forecast has Hurricane Debbie making landfall along the FL Big Bend vicinity this morning, and becoming centered over southeast GA by Tuesday morning. Within the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone across northern FL/southeast GA and coastal SC, low-level SRH will be maximized within an airmass characterized by mid 70s F dewpoints. Tornado potential will accompany any deeper updrafts across this area. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon/evening as a weak upper shortwave trough impinging on the region brings increasing ascent and midlevel moisture to the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support up to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes will allow for organization of deeper updrafts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow gusts with this activity. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave impulses/convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate through a broad area of northwesterly upper level flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an shortwave trough embedded within the Hudson Bay upper cyclone will pivot east/southeast toward the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest, resulting in enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, Hurricane Debbie is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the Florida Big Bend and move northeast into southeast GA. Otherwise, an expansive upper anticyclone will overspread much of the Great Basin/Four Corners region into the Lower MS Valley. ...IN/OH/MI into the Northeast... West/southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase through the day as the upper shortwave trough moves east across Ontario and into Quebec. While deep-layer flow will mostly be unidirectional, increasing midlevel flow will support effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but a moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will foster MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s F will steepen low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with forecast hodographs becoming elongated/straight above around 2.5 km. This environment should support a mix of supercells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated large hail. Further west across southern Lower MI, northern IN/OH and western PA, stronger instability is forecast. A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will be possible as an initial shortwave moves across the area during the morning. Convection is then expected to form during the afternoon and evening as a surface cold front sags southward across the Great Lakes. While greater instability is forecast, the stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the northeast across New England. Furthermore, morning convection could be detrimental to afternoon storms depending how prevalent convection is and how much cloud cover lingers over the area. Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will be present along with modest vertical shear, supporting some risk of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail. ...MN/IA into WI/IL... A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Mid-MO Valley during the afternoon/evening. A warm front will extend east/southeast from the low across northern IA/IL. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the surface warm front. However, it remains uncertain if warm-sector convection will develop, or if convection will mostly be elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Regardless, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid a very moist (70s F dewpoints) and unstable airmass. Elevated convection will pose a risk for large hail. If warm midlevel temps/capping can be overcome and storms develop with the warm sector, all severe hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes. Initial cellular convection will likely develop into a more linear, forward-propagating mode during the evening as storms move into southern WI and northern IL. Given uncertainty regarding warm sector development, have maintained probabilities from the previous Day 2 outlook, but upgrades could become necessary if trends toward warm-sector supercell development increase. ...FL/GA/SC... The National Hurricane Center forecast has Hurricane Debbie making landfall along the FL Big Bend vicinity this morning, and becoming centered over southeast GA by Tuesday morning. Within the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone across northern FL/southeast GA and coastal SC, low-level SRH will be maximized within an airmass characterized by mid 70s F dewpoints. Tornado potential will accompany any deeper updrafts across this area. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon/evening as a weak upper shortwave trough impinging on the region brings increasing ascent and midlevel moisture to the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support up to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes will allow for organization of deeper updrafts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow gusts with this activity. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave impulses/convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate through a broad area of northwesterly upper level flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an shortwave trough embedded within the Hudson Bay upper cyclone will pivot east/southeast toward the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest, resulting in enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, Hurricane Debbie is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the Florida Big Bend and move northeast into southeast GA. Otherwise, an expansive upper anticyclone will overspread much of the Great Basin/Four Corners region into the Lower MS Valley. ...IN/OH/MI into the Northeast... West/southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase through the day as the upper shortwave trough moves east across Ontario and into Quebec. While deep-layer flow will mostly be unidirectional, increasing midlevel flow will support effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but a moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will foster MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s F will steepen low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with forecast hodographs becoming elongated/straight above around 2.5 km. This environment should support a mix of supercells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated large hail. Further west across southern Lower MI, northern IN/OH and western PA, stronger instability is forecast. A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will be possible as an initial shortwave moves across the area during the morning. Convection is then expected to form during the afternoon and evening as a surface cold front sags southward across the Great Lakes. While greater instability is forecast, the stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the northeast across New England. Furthermore, morning convection could be detrimental to afternoon storms depending how prevalent convection is and how much cloud cover lingers over the area. Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will be present along with modest vertical shear, supporting some risk of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail. ...MN/IA into WI/IL... A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Mid-MO Valley during the afternoon/evening. A warm front will extend east/southeast from the low across northern IA/IL. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the surface warm front. However, it remains uncertain if warm-sector convection will develop, or if convection will mostly be elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Regardless, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid a very moist (70s F dewpoints) and unstable airmass. Elevated convection will pose a risk for large hail. If warm midlevel temps/capping can be overcome and storms develop with the warm sector, all severe hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes. Initial cellular convection will likely develop into a more linear, forward-propagating mode during the evening as storms move into southern WI and northern IL. Given uncertainty regarding warm sector development, have maintained probabilities from the previous Day 2 outlook, but upgrades could become necessary if trends toward warm-sector supercell development increase. ...FL/GA/SC... The National Hurricane Center forecast has Hurricane Debbie making landfall along the FL Big Bend vicinity this morning, and becoming centered over southeast GA by Tuesday morning. Within the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone across northern FL/southeast GA and coastal SC, low-level SRH will be maximized within an airmass characterized by mid 70s F dewpoints. Tornado potential will accompany any deeper updrafts across this area. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon/evening as a weak upper shortwave trough impinging on the region brings increasing ascent and midlevel moisture to the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support up to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes will allow for organization of deeper updrafts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow gusts with this activity. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave impulses/convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will migrate through a broad area of northwesterly upper level flow from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an shortwave trough embedded within the Hudson Bay upper cyclone will pivot east/southeast toward the Northeast. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough is forecast to overspread the Pacific Northwest, resulting in enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, Hurricane Debbie is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the Florida Big Bend and move northeast into southeast GA. Otherwise, an expansive upper anticyclone will overspread much of the Great Basin/Four Corners region into the Lower MS Valley. ...IN/OH/MI into the Northeast... West/southwesterly mid/upper flow will increase through the day as the upper shortwave trough moves east across Ontario and into Quebec. While deep-layer flow will mostly be unidirectional, increasing midlevel flow will support effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but a moist airmass with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F will foster MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Furthermore, heating into the mid 80s to low 90s F will steepen low-level lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles, with forecast hodographs becoming elongated/straight above around 2.5 km. This environment should support a mix of supercells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated large hail. Further west across southern Lower MI, northern IN/OH and western PA, stronger instability is forecast. A couple of rounds of thunderstorms will be possible as an initial shortwave moves across the area during the morning. Convection is then expected to form during the afternoon and evening as a surface cold front sags southward across the Great Lakes. While greater instability is forecast, the stronger vertical shear will remain displaced to the northeast across New England. Furthermore, morning convection could be detrimental to afternoon storms depending how prevalent convection is and how much cloud cover lingers over the area. Nevertheless, forecast soundings indicate modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will be present along with modest vertical shear, supporting some risk of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and perhaps severe hail. ...MN/IA into WI/IL... A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Mid-MO Valley during the afternoon/evening. A warm front will extend east/southeast from the low across northern IA/IL. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the surface warm front. However, it remains uncertain if warm-sector convection will develop, or if convection will mostly be elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Regardless, forecast soundings indicate supercell wind profiles amid a very moist (70s F dewpoints) and unstable airmass. Elevated convection will pose a risk for large hail. If warm midlevel temps/capping can be overcome and storms develop with the warm sector, all severe hazards will be possible, including a couple of tornadoes. Initial cellular convection will likely develop into a more linear, forward-propagating mode during the evening as storms move into southern WI and northern IL. Given uncertainty regarding warm sector development, have maintained probabilities from the previous Day 2 outlook, but upgrades could become necessary if trends toward warm-sector supercell development increase. ...FL/GA/SC... The National Hurricane Center forecast has Hurricane Debbie making landfall along the FL Big Bend vicinity this morning, and becoming centered over southeast GA by Tuesday morning. Within the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone across northern FL/southeast GA and coastal SC, low-level SRH will be maximized within an airmass characterized by mid 70s F dewpoints. Tornado potential will accompany any deeper updrafts across this area. ...Northern Rockies... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon/evening as a weak upper shortwave trough impinging on the region brings increasing ascent and midlevel moisture to the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support up to around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes will allow for organization of deeper updrafts. Meanwhile, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow gusts with this activity. ..Leitman/Thornton.. 08/05/2024 Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE SGJ TO 30 NW DAB TO 15 SW ORL TO 40 SW AGR. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057-065- 067-069-075-079-081-083-089-101-103-105-107-109-115-119-121-123- 125-127-050540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA GAC027-039-049-065-101-173-185-299-050540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE SGJ TO 30 NW DAB TO 15 SW ORL TO 40 SW AGR. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057-065- 067-069-075-079-081-083-089-101-103-105-107-109-115-119-121-123- 125-127-050440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA GAC027-039-049-065-101-173-185-299-050440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 1819 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 595... FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1819 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Areas affected...central and northern Florida and into far southern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 595... Valid 050211Z - 050415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 595 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk continues across portions of northern and central Florida and may extend into far southern Georgia in the next couple of hours, within stronger convective bands surrounding Debby. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that Debby has continued making slow, generally northward progress over the past couple of hours, with the strongest convective bands now near the west-central Florida Gulf coast. While an earlier tornado was reported in north-central Florida (Union County), observed/rotating cells are currently confined primarily to within a couple of strong convective bands within a zone from southwest of KVNC (Venice, FL) northward across the Tampa Area, and then northward to near and northwest of KCNC (Crystal River Airport, FL). However, lesser risk remains possible over a broader area east of Debby's center. ..Goss.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 28748378 29718378 30408349 30868202 30678134 29978077 29528085 29128146 28698149 27648183 27548197 26838256 27468307 28328318 28748378 Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MLB TO 35 SW AGR. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057-065- 067-069-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117- 119-121-123-125-127-050240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA GAC027-039-049-065-101-173-185-299-050240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0595 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N MLB TO 35 SW AGR. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 595 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-029-031-035-041-047-049-053-057-065- 067-069-075-079-081-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117- 119-121-123-125-127-050240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAKE LEVY MADISON MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION VOLUSIA GAC027-039-049-065-101-173-185-299-050240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight. ...Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish with southeast extent by 02-03z. ...Southeast Montana Vicinity... The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so the Marginal risk has been maintained. ...Florida... A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595. ...Minnesota/Iowa... Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight. ...Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish with southeast extent by 02-03z. ...Southeast Montana Vicinity... The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so the Marginal risk has been maintained. ...Florida... A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595. ...Minnesota/Iowa... Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight. ...Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish with southeast extent by 02-03z. ...Southeast Montana Vicinity... The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so the Marginal risk has been maintained. ...Florida... A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595. ...Minnesota/Iowa... Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight. ...Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish with southeast extent by 02-03z. ...Southeast Montana Vicinity... The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so the Marginal risk has been maintained. ...Florida... A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595. ...Minnesota/Iowa... Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight. ...Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish with southeast extent by 02-03z. ...Southeast Montana Vicinity... The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so the Marginal risk has been maintained. ...Florida... A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595. ...Minnesota/Iowa... Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated strong wind gusts and hail across parts of southeast Montana, and southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this evening into tonight. ...Northeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from New England as the threat has largely waned. A couple of strong storms may persist in the near-term across parts of VT/NH, but intensity should diminish with southeast extent by 02-03z. ...Southeast Montana Vicinity... The Slight risk has been removed with the 01z update. Convection has struggled to intensify this evening amid meager instability. While instability does increases modestly into far southeast MT, overall severe potential is expected to remain modest and not a widespread as previous expected. Sporadic strong gusts and perhaps marginal hail remain possible with any more intense cells that develop, so the Marginal risk has been maintained. ...Florida... A tornado risk remains across central and northern Florida into extreme GA as bands from TS Debbie continue to move over the area into the morning hours. Debbie has continued to track northward through the day, lessening the threat across the Keys and the southern Peninsula. As such, probabilities have been trimmed from these areas, which are also south of Tornado Watch 595. ...Minnesota/Iowa... Only minor changes have been made to severe probabilities based on latest trends in CAMs guidance. Elevated convection overnight will pose a sporadic risk of large hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 08/05/2024 Read more