Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build across the central Rockies into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Saturday as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. A modest surface cyclone will develop over the Great Basin by afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and surrounding areas. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 5-10 percent RH by afternoon peak heating over southern parts of the Great Basin. Some guidance suggests that wind speeds well over 20 mph may be observed over southern Nevada. However, marginally receptive fuels suggest that only Elevated highlights are warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build across the central Rockies into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Saturday as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. A modest surface cyclone will develop over the Great Basin by afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and surrounding areas. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 5-10 percent RH by afternoon peak heating over southern parts of the Great Basin. Some guidance suggests that wind speeds well over 20 mph may be observed over southern Nevada. However, marginally receptive fuels suggest that only Elevated highlights are warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Northern Plains today as upper ridging builds over the Interior West. A surface cold front trailing the mid-level trough will sweep southward across the northern High Plains while monsoonal mid-level moisture meanders over the central Rockies into parts of the Desert Southwest. While elevated to critically dry and windy conditions will accompany the cold front across portions of southern Wyoming, fuels are too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire-spread potential. The thunderstorms supported by monsoonal moisture across the central Rockies into the Southwest should also be relatively slow moving, wet, and will traverse areas that have received rainfall in previous days. As such, lightning should occur over relatively moist fuels, limiting wildfire ignitions to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Northern Plains today as upper ridging builds over the Interior West. A surface cold front trailing the mid-level trough will sweep southward across the northern High Plains while monsoonal mid-level moisture meanders over the central Rockies into parts of the Desert Southwest. While elevated to critically dry and windy conditions will accompany the cold front across portions of southern Wyoming, fuels are too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire-spread potential. The thunderstorms supported by monsoonal moisture across the central Rockies into the Southwest should also be relatively slow moving, wet, and will traverse areas that have received rainfall in previous days. As such, lightning should occur over relatively moist fuels, limiting wildfire ignitions to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Northern Plains today as upper ridging builds over the Interior West. A surface cold front trailing the mid-level trough will sweep southward across the northern High Plains while monsoonal mid-level moisture meanders over the central Rockies into parts of the Desert Southwest. While elevated to critically dry and windy conditions will accompany the cold front across portions of southern Wyoming, fuels are too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire-spread potential. The thunderstorms supported by monsoonal moisture across the central Rockies into the Southwest should also be relatively slow moving, wet, and will traverse areas that have received rainfall in previous days. As such, lightning should occur over relatively moist fuels, limiting wildfire ignitions to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Northern Plains today as upper ridging builds over the Interior West. A surface cold front trailing the mid-level trough will sweep southward across the northern High Plains while monsoonal mid-level moisture meanders over the central Rockies into parts of the Desert Southwest. While elevated to critically dry and windy conditions will accompany the cold front across portions of southern Wyoming, fuels are too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire-spread potential. The thunderstorms supported by monsoonal moisture across the central Rockies into the Southwest should also be relatively slow moving, wet, and will traverse areas that have received rainfall in previous days. As such, lightning should occur over relatively moist fuels, limiting wildfire ignitions to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Northern Plains today as upper ridging builds over the Interior West. A surface cold front trailing the mid-level trough will sweep southward across the northern High Plains while monsoonal mid-level moisture meanders over the central Rockies into parts of the Desert Southwest. While elevated to critically dry and windy conditions will accompany the cold front across portions of southern Wyoming, fuels are too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire-spread potential. The thunderstorms supported by monsoonal moisture across the central Rockies into the Southwest should also be relatively slow moving, wet, and will traverse areas that have received rainfall in previous days. As such, lightning should occur over relatively moist fuels, limiting wildfire ignitions to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Northern Plains today as upper ridging builds over the Interior West. A surface cold front trailing the mid-level trough will sweep southward across the northern High Plains while monsoonal mid-level moisture meanders over the central Rockies into parts of the Desert Southwest. While elevated to critically dry and windy conditions will accompany the cold front across portions of southern Wyoming, fuels are too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire-spread potential. The thunderstorms supported by monsoonal moisture across the central Rockies into the Southwest should also be relatively slow moving, wet, and will traverse areas that have received rainfall in previous days. As such, lightning should occur over relatively moist fuels, limiting wildfire ignitions to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Northern Plains today as upper ridging builds over the Interior West. A surface cold front trailing the mid-level trough will sweep southward across the northern High Plains while monsoonal mid-level moisture meanders over the central Rockies into parts of the Desert Southwest. While elevated to critically dry and windy conditions will accompany the cold front across portions of southern Wyoming, fuels are too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire-spread potential. The thunderstorms supported by monsoonal moisture across the central Rockies into the Southwest should also be relatively slow moving, wet, and will traverse areas that have received rainfall in previous days. As such, lightning should occur over relatively moist fuels, limiting wildfire ignitions to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Northern Plains today as upper ridging builds over the Interior West. A surface cold front trailing the mid-level trough will sweep southward across the northern High Plains while monsoonal mid-level moisture meanders over the central Rockies into parts of the Desert Southwest. While elevated to critically dry and windy conditions will accompany the cold front across portions of southern Wyoming, fuels are too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire-spread potential. The thunderstorms supported by monsoonal moisture across the central Rockies into the Southwest should also be relatively slow moving, wet, and will traverse areas that have received rainfall in previous days. As such, lightning should occur over relatively moist fuels, limiting wildfire ignitions to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Northern Plains today as upper ridging builds over the Interior West. A surface cold front trailing the mid-level trough will sweep southward across the northern High Plains while monsoonal mid-level moisture meanders over the central Rockies into parts of the Desert Southwest. While elevated to critically dry and windy conditions will accompany the cold front across portions of southern Wyoming, fuels are too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire-spread potential. The thunderstorms supported by monsoonal moisture across the central Rockies into the Southwest should also be relatively slow moving, wet, and will traverse areas that have received rainfall in previous days. As such, lightning should occur over relatively moist fuels, limiting wildfire ignitions to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF OH/PA INTO NORTHERN WV AND WESTERN NY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move from parts of the upper Midwest into Ontario/Quebec on Saturday, while a trailing shortwave will move southeastward across the upper Great Lakes during the evening. One or more convectively enhanced shortwave troughs may move eastward within a belt of westerly midlevel flow from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A cold front trailing from the primary surface low will move eastward across parts of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes, and eventually into parts of the Northeast by Sunday morning. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to stream northeastward along/ahead of the cold front, aided by a belt of relatively strong southwesterly 850 mb flow. Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain weak, but low 70s F dewpoints and modest diurnal heating could support pockets of at least moderate buoyancy by mid/late afternoon, though the influence of early-day convection on destabilization continues to result in uncertainty regarding the forecast. There is some potential for morning convection to gradually intensify through the day, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. Isolated damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado could accompany the strongest storms into early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop during the afternoon from OH into western PA, with more isolated development possible along the trailing front into the lower OH Valley. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection, and a few supercells and/or organized clusters could develop and move eastward during the afternoon into the evening, with a threat of scattered damaging wind. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially from eastern OH into western PA/NY, where low-level shear/SRH will remain favorable through the day into the early evening. The Slight Risk has been expanded somewhat to the north and east, where confidence is currently greatest in a corridor of organized severe potential, with potential for damaging winds and a couple tornadoes. ...Central Great Lakes... As the trailing shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Sunday evening, there is some potential for at least isolated storm development from eastern WI into MI and northern IL. With favorable deep-layer shear in place, isolated severe storms will be possible. Greater probabilities may eventually be needed for a portion of this region, depending on trends regarding storm coverage lingering instability into late afternoon/early evening. ...Ozark Region into the south-central Plains... Strong buoyancy is forecast to develop during the afternoon along the trailing cold front from parts of southern KS/MO into northern OK/AR. Deep-layer flow is expected to be rather weak, but modest veering with height may support effective shear of 20-30 kt near the front. Storm coverage along the front in this region remains somewhat uncertain, but isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, with a threat of localized damaging gusts and possibly some hail. A couple stronger storms may also develop within a post-frontal regime across parts of the southern/central High Plains. A corridor of higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding the most favored corridor for frontal convection. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more