Severe Storms

MD 1460 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479... FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1460 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...eastern South Dakota...southeastern North Dakota...west central and southwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479... Valid 280628Z - 280830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for strong, potentially damaging wind gusts appears to be in the process of waning and this probably will continue as convection spreads east of WW 479. A new severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...The conglomerate surface cold pool has maintained a general eastward propagation in excess of 40 kt, accompanied by occasional strong surface gusts. However, trends in MRMS CAPPI, among other data, suggest that peak intensities within the more intense leading line are diminishing, as increasingly elevated updraft inflow becomes less unstable. These trends are expected to continue as convection spreads into the upper Mississippi Valley through daybreak. ..Kerr.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45379748 46499762 46519521 44009545 43219699 43709777 44589775 45379748 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MHE TO 20 SW HON TO 30 ESE HON TO 30 NW BKX. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 479 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 28/08Z. ..KERR..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC073-077-097-111-280800- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JERAULD KINGSBURY MINER SANBORN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 479 SEVERE TSTM SD 280420Z - 280800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern South Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1120 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A long-lived severe squall line over central South Dakota will continue east into eastern South Dakota tonight. Scattered severe gusts 60-70 mph are possible with the more intense embedded thunderstorm cores and outflow surges in the squall line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Aberdeen SD to 35 miles south of Huron SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 477...WW 478... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Smith Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW ABR TO 40 NNE HON TO 30 NE ABR. ..KERR..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC005-025-037-073-077-097-111-115-280740- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEADLE CLARK DAY JERAULD KINGSBURY MINER SANBORN SPINK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 9V9 TO 35 N PIR TO 45 SSW ABR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 478 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 28/07Z. ..KERR..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-059-065-069-085-119-280700- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO HAND HUGHES HYDE LYMAN SULLY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W 9V9 TO 35 N PIR TO 45 SSW ABR. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 478 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 28/07Z. ..KERR..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-059-065-069-085-119-280700- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO HAND HUGHES HYDE LYMAN SULLY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 478 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 280000Z - 280700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 478 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 700 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Dakota Central South Dakota * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 700 PM until 200 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will likely move east across much of central North Dakota into north-central and central parts of South Dakota later this evening into tonight. Scattered severe gusts primarily in the 60-80 mph range are the main severe hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Minot ND to 45 miles south southeast of Pierre SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 473...WW 474...WW 475...WW 476...WW 477... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26045. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build across the central Rockies into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Saturday as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. A modest surface cyclone will develop over the Great Basin by afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and surrounding areas. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 5-10 percent RH by afternoon peak heating over southern parts of the Great Basin. Some guidance suggests that wind speeds well over 20 mph may be observed over southern Nevada. However, marginally receptive fuels suggest that only Elevated highlights are warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build across the central Rockies into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Saturday as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. A modest surface cyclone will develop over the Great Basin by afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and surrounding areas. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 5-10 percent RH by afternoon peak heating over southern parts of the Great Basin. Some guidance suggests that wind speeds well over 20 mph may be observed over southern Nevada. However, marginally receptive fuels suggest that only Elevated highlights are warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build across the central Rockies into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Saturday as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. A modest surface cyclone will develop over the Great Basin by afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and surrounding areas. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 5-10 percent RH by afternoon peak heating over southern parts of the Great Basin. Some guidance suggests that wind speeds well over 20 mph may be observed over southern Nevada. However, marginally receptive fuels suggest that only Elevated highlights are warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build across the central Rockies into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Saturday as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. A modest surface cyclone will develop over the Great Basin by afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and surrounding areas. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 5-10 percent RH by afternoon peak heating over southern parts of the Great Basin. Some guidance suggests that wind speeds well over 20 mph may be observed over southern Nevada. However, marginally receptive fuels suggest that only Elevated highlights are warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build across the central Rockies into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Saturday as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. A modest surface cyclone will develop over the Great Basin by afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and surrounding areas. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 5-10 percent RH by afternoon peak heating over southern parts of the Great Basin. Some guidance suggests that wind speeds well over 20 mph may be observed over southern Nevada. However, marginally receptive fuels suggest that only Elevated highlights are warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build across the central Rockies into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Saturday as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. A modest surface cyclone will develop over the Great Basin by afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and surrounding areas. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 5-10 percent RH by afternoon peak heating over southern parts of the Great Basin. Some guidance suggests that wind speeds well over 20 mph may be observed over southern Nevada. However, marginally receptive fuels suggest that only Elevated highlights are warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build across the central Rockies into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow/Saturday as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. A modest surface cyclone will develop over the Great Basin by afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across portions of southern Nevada and surrounding areas. 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will overlap with 5-10 percent RH by afternoon peak heating over southern parts of the Great Basin. Some guidance suggests that wind speeds well over 20 mph may be observed over southern Nevada. However, marginally receptive fuels suggest that only Elevated highlights are warranted at this time. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more