Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest (05/00z) ECENS/GEFS output suggests than an initially prominent mid-level ridge over the Canadian Northwest Territories will gradually become suppressed, with the center of higher heights shifting east-southeastward toward northern Manitoba through early this weekend. Preceding this feature, it appears that a significant positively tilted trough will pivot through northwestern Ontario and the upper Great Lakes, before digging through the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley vicinity. As this occurs, it appears that Debby's remnant lower/mid-level circulation will finally accelerate northeastward out of the Southeast, and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast by next weekend. While it might not be out of the question that this could occur in a manner supportive of an appreciable increase in potential for convection capable of producing tornadoes across parts of the Carolinas, Virginia and Delmarva Peninsula vicinity, probabilities for this still seem generally low at this time. Otherwise, modest westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow developing across the northern Rockies into northern and central U.S. Great Plains, around the periphery of a prominent ridge shifting from the Four Corners into southern Great Plains, may be conditionally supportive of organized convective development through much of the period. However, guidance continues to generally indicate that seasonably modest destabilization will tend to limit the severe weather potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and perhaps pose some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible buoyancy. ...Northern High Plains... In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around 500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and perhaps pose some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible buoyancy. ...Northern High Plains... In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around 500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and perhaps pose some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible buoyancy. ...Northern High Plains... In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around 500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and perhaps pose some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible buoyancy. ...Northern High Plains... In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around 500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and perhaps pose some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible buoyancy. ...Northern High Plains... In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around 500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and perhaps pose some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible buoyancy. ...Northern High Plains... In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around 500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and perhaps pose some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible buoyancy. ...Northern High Plains... In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around 500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and perhaps pose some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible buoyancy. ...Northern High Plains... In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around 500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the coastal Carolinas and northern Great Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night, and perhaps pose some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... It appears that a prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the Canadian Northwest Territories into and through this period. To its south, mid-level troughing across the Canadian Prairies through the adjacent international border area may elongate westward across the British Columbia coast. To the east, as one short wave impulse accelerates east of the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, another significant short wave trough is forecast to dig across the southeastern Hudson/James Bay vicinity, reinforcing large-scale positively tilted troughing across much of the eastern Canadian provinces and northern New England. In the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, it appears that one prominent mid-level ridge will be maintained across the southern Great Basin into southern Great Plains. Another ridge over the western subtropical Atlantic may build westward toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast. As this occurs, the initially quasi-stationary to very slow moving offshore circulation center, of what is still forecast to be Tropical Storm Debby, may slowly accelerate northward toward the South Carolina coast Wednesday night. ...Carolinas/Southeastern Georgia... Sizable spread exists among the model output concerning the track of Debby. Even based on the official forecast track, the risk for tornadoes remains unclear, particularly inland of the coast where the boundary layer may remain characterized by weak to negligible buoyancy. ...Northern High Plains... In the presence of steep lapse rates, beneath moderate to strong westerly to northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 30-40 kt around 500 mb), models indicate that mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg may develop within lee surface troughing. As this supports widely scattered thunderstorm activity by late Wednesday afternoon, isolated supercells might evolve and pose a risk for severe hail and wind into Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more