Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The current forecast remains valid, with minimal changes to the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm areas to reflect current meteorological and fuels guidance. Some reduction of dry thunder areas may be required in the next update due to wetting rainfall. See previous discussion for more detail. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0597 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0597 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0597 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0597 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1823 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 596... FOR FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...far southern South Carolina...Southeast Georgia...central and northeast Florida Concerning...Tornado Watch 596... Valid 051602Z - 051700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 596 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated tornado threat will persist through the day today. DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Debby is slowly moving north through portions of northwest Florida. An extensive region of banded precipitation extends from the eastern eyewall into the western Pacific and across the Florida Peninsula. Instability has been mostly weak amid persistent stratiform rain across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Greater instability has developed with more broken cloudcover across central Florida where lightning activity has been focused. However, surface winds are veered in this region and thus, the tornado threat is somewhat muted. The wind profile sampled by the JAX VWP remains quite favorable for low-level updraft organization and tornado potential. If greater instability can develop along the coast later today, an increasing tornado threat is possible from southeast Georgia into eastern South Carolina as the wind field expands northward. ..Bentley.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 31528246 32398147 32608068 32448025 31988026 30978087 30068110 29378084 28638068 27938094 27158128 26898194 26868258 27048301 27918297 28908264 30038256 31528246 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more