Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday for Corn Belt/Upper Midwest... An amplifying shortwave trough and eastward-shifting strong early summertime speed max will continue to influence the region on Tuesday. Lingering convection/outflow from Monday night will likely be a factor as far as spatial details, but it currently appears that a very moist/unstable warm sector will focus across Iowa into Tuesday afternoon and evening, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells. Have introduced 15 percent severe probabilities for this scenario, although spatial adjustments and refinements will be needed in future outlooks. ...Day 5/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front. However, deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the central Plains. Limited predictability and risk-magnitude uncertainties currently precludes 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Days 6-8 Thursday-Saturday... Predictability wanes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday for Corn Belt/Upper Midwest... An amplifying shortwave trough and eastward-shifting strong early summertime speed max will continue to influence the region on Tuesday. Lingering convection/outflow from Monday night will likely be a factor as far as spatial details, but it currently appears that a very moist/unstable warm sector will focus across Iowa into Tuesday afternoon and evening, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells. Have introduced 15 percent severe probabilities for this scenario, although spatial adjustments and refinements will be needed in future outlooks. ...Day 5/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front. However, deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the central Plains. Limited predictability and risk-magnitude uncertainties currently precludes 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Days 6-8 Thursday-Saturday... Predictability wanes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday for Corn Belt/Upper Midwest... An amplifying shortwave trough and eastward-shifting strong early summertime speed max will continue to influence the region on Tuesday. Lingering convection/outflow from Monday night will likely be a factor as far as spatial details, but it currently appears that a very moist/unstable warm sector will focus across Iowa into Tuesday afternoon and evening, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells. Have introduced 15 percent severe probabilities for this scenario, although spatial adjustments and refinements will be needed in future outlooks. ...Day 5/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front. However, deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the central Plains. Limited predictability and risk-magnitude uncertainties currently precludes 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Days 6-8 Thursday-Saturday... Predictability wanes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday for Corn Belt/Upper Midwest... An amplifying shortwave trough and eastward-shifting strong early summertime speed max will continue to influence the region on Tuesday. Lingering convection/outflow from Monday night will likely be a factor as far as spatial details, but it currently appears that a very moist/unstable warm sector will focus across Iowa into Tuesday afternoon and evening, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells. Have introduced 15 percent severe probabilities for this scenario, although spatial adjustments and refinements will be needed in future outlooks. ...Day 5/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front. However, deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the central Plains. Limited predictability and risk-magnitude uncertainties currently precludes 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Days 6-8 Thursday-Saturday... Predictability wanes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday for Corn Belt/Upper Midwest... An amplifying shortwave trough and eastward-shifting strong early summertime speed max will continue to influence the region on Tuesday. Lingering convection/outflow from Monday night will likely be a factor as far as spatial details, but it currently appears that a very moist/unstable warm sector will focus across Iowa into Tuesday afternoon and evening, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells. Have introduced 15 percent severe probabilities for this scenario, although spatial adjustments and refinements will be needed in future outlooks. ...Day 5/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front. However, deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the central Plains. Limited predictability and risk-magnitude uncertainties currently precludes 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Days 6-8 Thursday-Saturday... Predictability wanes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday for Corn Belt/Upper Midwest... An amplifying shortwave trough and eastward-shifting strong early summertime speed max will continue to influence the region on Tuesday. Lingering convection/outflow from Monday night will likely be a factor as far as spatial details, but it currently appears that a very moist/unstable warm sector will focus across Iowa into Tuesday afternoon and evening, ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. Seasonally strong winds would likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells. Have introduced 15 percent severe probabilities for this scenario, although spatial adjustments and refinements will be needed in future outlooks. ...Day 5/Wednesday... At least some severe-weather potential will likely exist across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley within the moist/unstable environment ahead of the advancing cold front. However, deep-layer shear atop the warm sector will likely be weaker as compared to prior days. Additional severe storms may occur near/north of the synoptic front across the central Plains. Limited predictability and risk-magnitude uncertainties currently precludes 15+ percent severe-weather probability delineations for these scenarios. ...Days 6-8 Thursday-Saturday... Predictability wanes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley and potentially parts of the East. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... A mid/upper-level trough is expected to overspread the region with appreciable height falls, particularly by early summertime standards, as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. The influences of early day convection will probably be a modulating factor and point of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of a weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup may materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and possibly into parts of South Dakota. Seasonally strong deep-layer shear will support potentially intense supercells, with a risk for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Minnesota and Iowa Monday night. ...Southeast States... Some strong to locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front. Current thinking is that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... A mid/upper-level trough is expected to overspread the region with appreciable height falls, particularly by early summertime standards, as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. The influences of early day convection will probably be a modulating factor and point of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of a weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup may materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and possibly into parts of South Dakota. Seasonally strong deep-layer shear will support potentially intense supercells, with a risk for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Minnesota and Iowa Monday night. ...Southeast States... Some strong to locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front. Current thinking is that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... A mid/upper-level trough is expected to overspread the region with appreciable height falls, particularly by early summertime standards, as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. The influences of early day convection will probably be a modulating factor and point of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of a weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup may materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and possibly into parts of South Dakota. Seasonally strong deep-layer shear will support potentially intense supercells, with a risk for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Minnesota and Iowa Monday night. ...Southeast States... Some strong to locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front. Current thinking is that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... A mid/upper-level trough is expected to overspread the region with appreciable height falls, particularly by early summertime standards, as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. The influences of early day convection will probably be a modulating factor and point of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of a weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup may materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and possibly into parts of South Dakota. Seasonally strong deep-layer shear will support potentially intense supercells, with a risk for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Minnesota and Iowa Monday night. ...Southeast States... Some strong to locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front. Current thinking is that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... A mid/upper-level trough is expected to overspread the region with appreciable height falls, particularly by early summertime standards, as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. The influences of early day convection will probably be a modulating factor and point of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of a weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup may materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and possibly into parts of South Dakota. Seasonally strong deep-layer shear will support potentially intense supercells, with a risk for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Minnesota and Iowa Monday night. ...Southeast States... Some strong to locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front. Current thinking is that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains including parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest... A mid/upper-level trough is expected to overspread the region with appreciable height falls, particularly by early summertime standards, as far south as Nebraska and Iowa. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. The influences of early day convection will probably be a modulating factor and point of uncertainty spatially, but a warm front should effectively transition north-northeastward during the day, with very rich low-level moisture in its wake to the east of a weak cold front. The most surface-based severe-favorable setup may materialize across central/eastern Nebraska into Monday late afternoon/early evening, and possibly into parts of South Dakota. Seasonally strong deep-layer shear will support potentially intense supercells, with a risk for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of Minnesota and Iowa Monday night. ...Southeast States... Some strong to locally severe storms capable of wind damage may occur Monday afternoon through early evening within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the southward-sagging front. Current thinking is that this risk is most probable across southern South Carolina and southern/eastern Georgia into northern Florida. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

MD 1471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1471 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...parts of southwestern and south central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290651Z - 290845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated intense supercell may continue to pose a risk for large hail (up to 2+ inches in diameter) and potentially damaging wind gusts across and east-southeast of the Lexington vicinity through 2 to 3 AM CDT. Thereafter, it seems probable that it will weaken. Trends are being monitored, but a severe weather watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Forcing for recent intense, isolated supercell development to the east southeast of North Platte is unclear. It appears focused within a corridor of higher boundary-layer moisture content supportive of sizable CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, along baroclinic zone where low-level warm advection may have become enhanced. Aided by strong shear, radar data suggests that this cell has been producing severe hail, and this east-southeastward propagating cell may eventually pose a risk for locally strong surface gusts if it is maintained long enough. However, based on the Rapid Refresh, the developing frontal zone is in the process of surging southward at a pace that may tend to undercut the storm and contribute to stabilizing trends within the next couple of hours. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 40960011 40999960 40869855 40479888 40610038 40760037 40960011 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more