Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest this morning will continue to move east-northeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley today while gradually de-amplifying/weakening. An associated 40-60 kt mid-level jet will accompany this trough and overspread much of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern MN/western WI should continue to gradually occlude through the day in tandem with the weakening upper cyclone. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward over the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening, while a warm front advances as far north as parts of Lower MI and perhaps far western NY. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic... Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are expected to be in place ahead of the cold front late this morning/early afternoon. A pronounced mid-level dry slot evident on water vapor satellite imagery should aid in diurnal destabilization via a general lack of mid/upper-level cloud cover across parts of the OH Valley. As the boundary layer gradually warms/moistens, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across southern Lower MI, eastern IN, and OH. Sufficiently strong low/mid-level winds will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Current expectations are for convection to develop along or just ahead of the cold front by early afternoon, and subsequently spread quickly east-northeastward across Lower MI, OH, and western PA through this evening. Tendency may be for thunderstorms to quickly organize into a line, especially across Lower MI which will be in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough/low. If this evolution occurs, then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity. Have expanded the Marginal and Slight Risks northward across Lower MI to account for this potential. Farther south across eastern IN and OH, forcing will gradually become more limited, which may allow for somewhat lower thunderstorm coverage initially. Even so, deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, with large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes all possible. The best tornado potential may be focused across parts of southeastern Lower MI and northern OH, in closer proximity to the warm front and greater low-level shear. Some upscale growth may also occur with this activity as it moves into eastern OH and western PA, with a potentially greater threat for damaging winds through the early evening before convection eventually weakens. Overall convective coverage should be lower across the TN Valley into the Southeast, with weaker large-scale ascent present over these regions. Still, isolated strong thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and early evening in a weakly unstable but strong deep-layer shear environment. Occasional hail and gusty winds appear possible with the more robust cores. Based on latest guidance trends, have trimmed the western extent of the Marginal Risk over western KY/TN and northern MS. Across the eastern Mid-Atlantic (northern VA/MD/DC/DE/south-central PA), a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates forecast by some guidance may support occasional strong to damaging winds with convection spreading eastward off the higher terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. With limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Nebraska/Kansas into Iowa/Missouri... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample MUCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. The large hail threat should to be greatest in the 04Z to 08Z time window with initial development, but it may persist through the end of the period. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist farther south across south-central/southeastern KS into far northeastern OK. Here, modest low-level convergence along the intersection of a developing warm front and dryline may be sufficient to initiate isolated convection early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. If this occurs, then all severe hazards appear possible. ...Texas... Very isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along a surface dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail. But, this threat currently appears too conditional and uncertain to add low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest this morning will continue to move east-northeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley today while gradually de-amplifying/weakening. An associated 40-60 kt mid-level jet will accompany this trough and overspread much of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern MN/western WI should continue to gradually occlude through the day in tandem with the weakening upper cyclone. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward over the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening, while a warm front advances as far north as parts of Lower MI and perhaps far western NY. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic... Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are expected to be in place ahead of the cold front late this morning/early afternoon. A pronounced mid-level dry slot evident on water vapor satellite imagery should aid in diurnal destabilization via a general lack of mid/upper-level cloud cover across parts of the OH Valley. As the boundary layer gradually warms/moistens, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across southern Lower MI, eastern IN, and OH. Sufficiently strong low/mid-level winds will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Current expectations are for convection to develop along or just ahead of the cold front by early afternoon, and subsequently spread quickly east-northeastward across Lower MI, OH, and western PA through this evening. Tendency may be for thunderstorms to quickly organize into a line, especially across Lower MI which will be in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough/low. If this evolution occurs, then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity. Have expanded the Marginal and Slight Risks northward across Lower MI to account for this potential. Farther south across eastern IN and OH, forcing will gradually become more limited, which may allow for somewhat lower thunderstorm coverage initially. Even so, deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, with large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes all possible. The best tornado potential may be focused across parts of southeastern Lower MI and northern OH, in closer proximity to the warm front and greater low-level shear. Some upscale growth may also occur with this activity as it moves into eastern OH and western PA, with a potentially greater threat for damaging winds through the early evening before convection eventually weakens. Overall convective coverage should be lower across the TN Valley into the Southeast, with weaker large-scale ascent present over these regions. Still, isolated strong thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and early evening in a weakly unstable but strong deep-layer shear environment. Occasional hail and gusty winds appear possible with the more robust cores. Based on latest guidance trends, have trimmed the western extent of the Marginal Risk over western KY/TN and northern MS. Across the eastern Mid-Atlantic (northern VA/MD/DC/DE/south-central PA), a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates forecast by some guidance may support occasional strong to damaging winds with convection spreading eastward off the higher terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. With limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Nebraska/Kansas into Iowa/Missouri... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample MUCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. The large hail threat should to be greatest in the 04Z to 08Z time window with initial development, but it may persist through the end of the period. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist farther south across south-central/southeastern KS into far northeastern OK. Here, modest low-level convergence along the intersection of a developing warm front and dryline may be sufficient to initiate isolated convection early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. If this occurs, then all severe hazards appear possible. ...Texas... Very isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along a surface dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail. But, this threat currently appears too conditional and uncertain to add low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest this morning will continue to move east-northeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley today while gradually de-amplifying/weakening. An associated 40-60 kt mid-level jet will accompany this trough and overspread much of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern MN/western WI should continue to gradually occlude through the day in tandem with the weakening upper cyclone. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward over the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening, while a warm front advances as far north as parts of Lower MI and perhaps far western NY. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic... Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are expected to be in place ahead of the cold front late this morning/early afternoon. A pronounced mid-level dry slot evident on water vapor satellite imagery should aid in diurnal destabilization via a general lack of mid/upper-level cloud cover across parts of the OH Valley. As the boundary layer gradually warms/moistens, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across southern Lower MI, eastern IN, and OH. Sufficiently strong low/mid-level winds will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Current expectations are for convection to develop along or just ahead of the cold front by early afternoon, and subsequently spread quickly east-northeastward across Lower MI, OH, and western PA through this evening. Tendency may be for thunderstorms to quickly organize into a line, especially across Lower MI which will be in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough/low. If this evolution occurs, then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity. Have expanded the Marginal and Slight Risks northward across Lower MI to account for this potential. Farther south across eastern IN and OH, forcing will gradually become more limited, which may allow for somewhat lower thunderstorm coverage initially. Even so, deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, with large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes all possible. The best tornado potential may be focused across parts of southeastern Lower MI and northern OH, in closer proximity to the warm front and greater low-level shear. Some upscale growth may also occur with this activity as it moves into eastern OH and western PA, with a potentially greater threat for damaging winds through the early evening before convection eventually weakens. Overall convective coverage should be lower across the TN Valley into the Southeast, with weaker large-scale ascent present over these regions. Still, isolated strong thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and early evening in a weakly unstable but strong deep-layer shear environment. Occasional hail and gusty winds appear possible with the more robust cores. Based on latest guidance trends, have trimmed the western extent of the Marginal Risk over western KY/TN and northern MS. Across the eastern Mid-Atlantic (northern VA/MD/DC/DE/south-central PA), a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates forecast by some guidance may support occasional strong to damaging winds with convection spreading eastward off the higher terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. With limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Nebraska/Kansas into Iowa/Missouri... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample MUCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. The large hail threat should to be greatest in the 04Z to 08Z time window with initial development, but it may persist through the end of the period. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist farther south across south-central/southeastern KS into far northeastern OK. Here, modest low-level convergence along the intersection of a developing warm front and dryline may be sufficient to initiate isolated convection early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. If this occurs, then all severe hazards appear possible. ...Texas... Very isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along a surface dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail. But, this threat currently appears too conditional and uncertain to add low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest this morning will continue to move east-northeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley today while gradually de-amplifying/weakening. An associated 40-60 kt mid-level jet will accompany this trough and overspread much of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern MN/western WI should continue to gradually occlude through the day in tandem with the weakening upper cyclone. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward over the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening, while a warm front advances as far north as parts of Lower MI and perhaps far western NY. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic... Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are expected to be in place ahead of the cold front late this morning/early afternoon. A pronounced mid-level dry slot evident on water vapor satellite imagery should aid in diurnal destabilization via a general lack of mid/upper-level cloud cover across parts of the OH Valley. As the boundary layer gradually warms/moistens, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across southern Lower MI, eastern IN, and OH. Sufficiently strong low/mid-level winds will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Current expectations are for convection to develop along or just ahead of the cold front by early afternoon, and subsequently spread quickly east-northeastward across Lower MI, OH, and western PA through this evening. Tendency may be for thunderstorms to quickly organize into a line, especially across Lower MI which will be in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough/low. If this evolution occurs, then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity. Have expanded the Marginal and Slight Risks northward across Lower MI to account for this potential. Farther south across eastern IN and OH, forcing will gradually become more limited, which may allow for somewhat lower thunderstorm coverage initially. Even so, deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, with large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes all possible. The best tornado potential may be focused across parts of southeastern Lower MI and northern OH, in closer proximity to the warm front and greater low-level shear. Some upscale growth may also occur with this activity as it moves into eastern OH and western PA, with a potentially greater threat for damaging winds through the early evening before convection eventually weakens. Overall convective coverage should be lower across the TN Valley into the Southeast, with weaker large-scale ascent present over these regions. Still, isolated strong thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and early evening in a weakly unstable but strong deep-layer shear environment. Occasional hail and gusty winds appear possible with the more robust cores. Based on latest guidance trends, have trimmed the western extent of the Marginal Risk over western KY/TN and northern MS. Across the eastern Mid-Atlantic (northern VA/MD/DC/DE/south-central PA), a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates forecast by some guidance may support occasional strong to damaging winds with convection spreading eastward off the higher terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. With limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Nebraska/Kansas into Iowa/Missouri... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample MUCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. The large hail threat should to be greatest in the 04Z to 08Z time window with initial development, but it may persist through the end of the period. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist farther south across south-central/southeastern KS into far northeastern OK. Here, modest low-level convergence along the intersection of a developing warm front and dryline may be sufficient to initiate isolated convection early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. If this occurs, then all severe hazards appear possible. ...Texas... Very isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along a surface dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail. But, this threat currently appears too conditional and uncertain to add low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest this morning will continue to move east-northeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley today while gradually de-amplifying/weakening. An associated 40-60 kt mid-level jet will accompany this trough and overspread much of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern MN/western WI should continue to gradually occlude through the day in tandem with the weakening upper cyclone. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward over the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening, while a warm front advances as far north as parts of Lower MI and perhaps far western NY. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic... Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are expected to be in place ahead of the cold front late this morning/early afternoon. A pronounced mid-level dry slot evident on water vapor satellite imagery should aid in diurnal destabilization via a general lack of mid/upper-level cloud cover across parts of the OH Valley. As the boundary layer gradually warms/moistens, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across southern Lower MI, eastern IN, and OH. Sufficiently strong low/mid-level winds will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Current expectations are for convection to develop along or just ahead of the cold front by early afternoon, and subsequently spread quickly east-northeastward across Lower MI, OH, and western PA through this evening. Tendency may be for thunderstorms to quickly organize into a line, especially across Lower MI which will be in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough/low. If this evolution occurs, then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity. Have expanded the Marginal and Slight Risks northward across Lower MI to account for this potential. Farther south across eastern IN and OH, forcing will gradually become more limited, which may allow for somewhat lower thunderstorm coverage initially. Even so, deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, with large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes all possible. The best tornado potential may be focused across parts of southeastern Lower MI and northern OH, in closer proximity to the warm front and greater low-level shear. Some upscale growth may also occur with this activity as it moves into eastern OH and western PA, with a potentially greater threat for damaging winds through the early evening before convection eventually weakens. Overall convective coverage should be lower across the TN Valley into the Southeast, with weaker large-scale ascent present over these regions. Still, isolated strong thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and early evening in a weakly unstable but strong deep-layer shear environment. Occasional hail and gusty winds appear possible with the more robust cores. Based on latest guidance trends, have trimmed the western extent of the Marginal Risk over western KY/TN and northern MS. Across the eastern Mid-Atlantic (northern VA/MD/DC/DE/south-central PA), a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates forecast by some guidance may support occasional strong to damaging winds with convection spreading eastward off the higher terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. With limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Nebraska/Kansas into Iowa/Missouri... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample MUCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. The large hail threat should to be greatest in the 04Z to 08Z time window with initial development, but it may persist through the end of the period. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist farther south across south-central/southeastern KS into far northeastern OK. Here, modest low-level convergence along the intersection of a developing warm front and dryline may be sufficient to initiate isolated convection early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. If this occurs, then all severe hazards appear possible. ...Texas... Very isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along a surface dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail. But, this threat currently appears too conditional and uncertain to add low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest this morning will continue to move east-northeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley today while gradually de-amplifying/weakening. An associated 40-60 kt mid-level jet will accompany this trough and overspread much of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern MN/western WI should continue to gradually occlude through the day in tandem with the weakening upper cyclone. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward over the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening, while a warm front advances as far north as parts of Lower MI and perhaps far western NY. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic... Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are expected to be in place ahead of the cold front late this morning/early afternoon. A pronounced mid-level dry slot evident on water vapor satellite imagery should aid in diurnal destabilization via a general lack of mid/upper-level cloud cover across parts of the OH Valley. As the boundary layer gradually warms/moistens, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across southern Lower MI, eastern IN, and OH. Sufficiently strong low/mid-level winds will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Current expectations are for convection to develop along or just ahead of the cold front by early afternoon, and subsequently spread quickly east-northeastward across Lower MI, OH, and western PA through this evening. Tendency may be for thunderstorms to quickly organize into a line, especially across Lower MI which will be in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough/low. If this evolution occurs, then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity. Have expanded the Marginal and Slight Risks northward across Lower MI to account for this potential. Farther south across eastern IN and OH, forcing will gradually become more limited, which may allow for somewhat lower thunderstorm coverage initially. Even so, deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, with large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes all possible. The best tornado potential may be focused across parts of southeastern Lower MI and northern OH, in closer proximity to the warm front and greater low-level shear. Some upscale growth may also occur with this activity as it moves into eastern OH and western PA, with a potentially greater threat for damaging winds through the early evening before convection eventually weakens. Overall convective coverage should be lower across the TN Valley into the Southeast, with weaker large-scale ascent present over these regions. Still, isolated strong thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and early evening in a weakly unstable but strong deep-layer shear environment. Occasional hail and gusty winds appear possible with the more robust cores. Based on latest guidance trends, have trimmed the western extent of the Marginal Risk over western KY/TN and northern MS. Across the eastern Mid-Atlantic (northern VA/MD/DC/DE/south-central PA), a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates forecast by some guidance may support occasional strong to damaging winds with convection spreading eastward off the higher terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. With limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Nebraska/Kansas into Iowa/Missouri... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample MUCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. The large hail threat should to be greatest in the 04Z to 08Z time window with initial development, but it may persist through the end of the period. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist farther south across south-central/southeastern KS into far northeastern OK. Here, modest low-level convergence along the intersection of a developing warm front and dryline may be sufficient to initiate isolated convection early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. If this occurs, then all severe hazards appear possible. ...Texas... Very isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along a surface dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail. But, this threat currently appears too conditional and uncertain to add low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest this morning will continue to move east-northeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley today while gradually de-amplifying/weakening. An associated 40-60 kt mid-level jet will accompany this trough and overspread much of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern MN/western WI should continue to gradually occlude through the day in tandem with the weakening upper cyclone. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward over the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening, while a warm front advances as far north as parts of Lower MI and perhaps far western NY. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic... Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are expected to be in place ahead of the cold front late this morning/early afternoon. A pronounced mid-level dry slot evident on water vapor satellite imagery should aid in diurnal destabilization via a general lack of mid/upper-level cloud cover across parts of the OH Valley. As the boundary layer gradually warms/moistens, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across southern Lower MI, eastern IN, and OH. Sufficiently strong low/mid-level winds will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Current expectations are for convection to develop along or just ahead of the cold front by early afternoon, and subsequently spread quickly east-northeastward across Lower MI, OH, and western PA through this evening. Tendency may be for thunderstorms to quickly organize into a line, especially across Lower MI which will be in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough/low. If this evolution occurs, then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity. Have expanded the Marginal and Slight Risks northward across Lower MI to account for this potential. Farther south across eastern IN and OH, forcing will gradually become more limited, which may allow for somewhat lower thunderstorm coverage initially. Even so, deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, with large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes all possible. The best tornado potential may be focused across parts of southeastern Lower MI and northern OH, in closer proximity to the warm front and greater low-level shear. Some upscale growth may also occur with this activity as it moves into eastern OH and western PA, with a potentially greater threat for damaging winds through the early evening before convection eventually weakens. Overall convective coverage should be lower across the TN Valley into the Southeast, with weaker large-scale ascent present over these regions. Still, isolated strong thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and early evening in a weakly unstable but strong deep-layer shear environment. Occasional hail and gusty winds appear possible with the more robust cores. Based on latest guidance trends, have trimmed the western extent of the Marginal Risk over western KY/TN and northern MS. Across the eastern Mid-Atlantic (northern VA/MD/DC/DE/south-central PA), a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates forecast by some guidance may support occasional strong to damaging winds with convection spreading eastward off the higher terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. With limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Nebraska/Kansas into Iowa/Missouri... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample MUCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. The large hail threat should to be greatest in the 04Z to 08Z time window with initial development, but it may persist through the end of the period. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist farther south across south-central/southeastern KS into far northeastern OK. Here, modest low-level convergence along the intersection of a developing warm front and dryline may be sufficient to initiate isolated convection early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. If this occurs, then all severe hazards appear possible. ...Texas... Very isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along a surface dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail. But, this threat currently appears too conditional and uncertain to add low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest this morning will continue to move east-northeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley today while gradually de-amplifying/weakening. An associated 40-60 kt mid-level jet will accompany this trough and overspread much of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern MN/western WI should continue to gradually occlude through the day in tandem with the weakening upper cyclone. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward over the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening, while a warm front advances as far north as parts of Lower MI and perhaps far western NY. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic... Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are expected to be in place ahead of the cold front late this morning/early afternoon. A pronounced mid-level dry slot evident on water vapor satellite imagery should aid in diurnal destabilization via a general lack of mid/upper-level cloud cover across parts of the OH Valley. As the boundary layer gradually warms/moistens, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across southern Lower MI, eastern IN, and OH. Sufficiently strong low/mid-level winds will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Current expectations are for convection to develop along or just ahead of the cold front by early afternoon, and subsequently spread quickly east-northeastward across Lower MI, OH, and western PA through this evening. Tendency may be for thunderstorms to quickly organize into a line, especially across Lower MI which will be in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough/low. If this evolution occurs, then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity. Have expanded the Marginal and Slight Risks northward across Lower MI to account for this potential. Farther south across eastern IN and OH, forcing will gradually become more limited, which may allow for somewhat lower thunderstorm coverage initially. Even so, deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, with large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes all possible. The best tornado potential may be focused across parts of southeastern Lower MI and northern OH, in closer proximity to the warm front and greater low-level shear. Some upscale growth may also occur with this activity as it moves into eastern OH and western PA, with a potentially greater threat for damaging winds through the early evening before convection eventually weakens. Overall convective coverage should be lower across the TN Valley into the Southeast, with weaker large-scale ascent present over these regions. Still, isolated strong thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and early evening in a weakly unstable but strong deep-layer shear environment. Occasional hail and gusty winds appear possible with the more robust cores. Based on latest guidance trends, have trimmed the western extent of the Marginal Risk over western KY/TN and northern MS. Across the eastern Mid-Atlantic (northern VA/MD/DC/DE/south-central PA), a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates forecast by some guidance may support occasional strong to damaging winds with convection spreading eastward off the higher terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. With limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Nebraska/Kansas into Iowa/Missouri... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample MUCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. The large hail threat should to be greatest in the 04Z to 08Z time window with initial development, but it may persist through the end of the period. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist farther south across south-central/southeastern KS into far northeastern OK. Here, modest low-level convergence along the intersection of a developing warm front and dryline may be sufficient to initiate isolated convection early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. If this occurs, then all severe hazards appear possible. ...Texas... Very isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along a surface dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail. But, this threat currently appears too conditional and uncertain to add low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes should develop across parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon. Thunderstorms with mainly a large hail threat may occur tonight over parts of the central Plains. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low over the Upper Midwest this morning will continue to move east-northeastward across the Great Lakes and OH Valley today while gradually de-amplifying/weakening. An associated 40-60 kt mid-level jet will accompany this trough and overspread much of the OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern MN/western WI should continue to gradually occlude through the day in tandem with the weakening upper cyclone. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward over the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley through this evening, while a warm front advances as far north as parts of Lower MI and perhaps far western NY. ...Lower Michigan into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic... Upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are expected to be in place ahead of the cold front late this morning/early afternoon. A pronounced mid-level dry slot evident on water vapor satellite imagery should aid in diurnal destabilization via a general lack of mid/upper-level cloud cover across parts of the OH Valley. As the boundary layer gradually warms/moistens, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across southern Lower MI, eastern IN, and OH. Sufficiently strong low/mid-level winds will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Current expectations are for convection to develop along or just ahead of the cold front by early afternoon, and subsequently spread quickly east-northeastward across Lower MI, OH, and western PA through this evening. Tendency may be for thunderstorms to quickly organize into a line, especially across Lower MI which will be in closer proximity to the large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough/low. If this evolution occurs, then severe/damaging winds would be the main threat with this activity. Have expanded the Marginal and Slight Risks northward across Lower MI to account for this potential. Farther south across eastern IN and OH, forcing will gradually become more limited, which may allow for somewhat lower thunderstorm coverage initially. Even so, deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, with large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes all possible. The best tornado potential may be focused across parts of southeastern Lower MI and northern OH, in closer proximity to the warm front and greater low-level shear. Some upscale growth may also occur with this activity as it moves into eastern OH and western PA, with a potentially greater threat for damaging winds through the early evening before convection eventually weakens. Overall convective coverage should be lower across the TN Valley into the Southeast, with weaker large-scale ascent present over these regions. Still, isolated strong thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and early evening in a weakly unstable but strong deep-layer shear environment. Occasional hail and gusty winds appear possible with the more robust cores. Based on latest guidance trends, have trimmed the western extent of the Marginal Risk over western KY/TN and northern MS. Across the eastern Mid-Atlantic (northern VA/MD/DC/DE/south-central PA), a well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse rates forecast by some guidance may support occasional strong to damaging winds with convection spreading eastward off the higher terrain of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. With limited instability, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain isolated. ...Nebraska/Kansas into Iowa/Missouri... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central CONUS tonight. A 40-45 kt southerly low-level jet will develop this evening across parts of the southern/central Plains in response. Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the northern edge of the low-level jet late this evening from central KS into far southeast NE. Ample MUCAPE, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer should support some threat for large hail with this mainly elevated convection. The large hail threat should to be greatest in the 04Z to 08Z time window with initial development, but it may persist through the end of the period. If convection can grow upscale into a small bowing cluster, then isolated damaging winds may also occur. A conditional threat for a supercell or two will exist farther south across south-central/southeastern KS into far northeastern OK. Here, modest low-level convergence along the intersection of a developing warm front and dryline may be sufficient to initiate isolated convection early this evening as the low-level jet strengthens. If this occurs, then all severe hazards appear possible. ...Texas... Very isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon and early evening across parts of south-central into central TX along a surface dryline. If any convection can be sustained, it could produce severe winds and hail. But, this threat currently appears too conditional and uncertain to add low severe probabilities. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 04/17/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, a large but progressive upper trough will move across the Northeast, with a deep upper low over Hudson Bay. West of the initial trough, west/northwest flow will prevail across the CONUS, with various embedded waves. A front will linger from the Carolinas westward into TX, but will gradually shift south as high pressure spreads southeast out of the Plains. The undercutting cool air will lead to substantial clouds and precipitation over the southern Plains on Saturday, with scattered rain and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast states. While moist, instability will become limited due to lack of heating in many areas, and as such severe storms are not currently forecast. From Sunday/D5 and beyond, rain and a few thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southeast as the cold front pushes offshore, with progressive drying each day. Beyond about Tuesday/D7, indications are that southwest flow aloft may return to parts of the western CONUS, with gradual moisture return into the southern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, a large but progressive upper trough will move across the Northeast, with a deep upper low over Hudson Bay. West of the initial trough, west/northwest flow will prevail across the CONUS, with various embedded waves. A front will linger from the Carolinas westward into TX, but will gradually shift south as high pressure spreads southeast out of the Plains. The undercutting cool air will lead to substantial clouds and precipitation over the southern Plains on Saturday, with scattered rain and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast states. While moist, instability will become limited due to lack of heating in many areas, and as such severe storms are not currently forecast. From Sunday/D5 and beyond, rain and a few thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southeast as the cold front pushes offshore, with progressive drying each day. Beyond about Tuesday/D7, indications are that southwest flow aloft may return to parts of the western CONUS, with gradual moisture return into the southern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, a large but progressive upper trough will move across the Northeast, with a deep upper low over Hudson Bay. West of the initial trough, west/northwest flow will prevail across the CONUS, with various embedded waves. A front will linger from the Carolinas westward into TX, but will gradually shift south as high pressure spreads southeast out of the Plains. The undercutting cool air will lead to substantial clouds and precipitation over the southern Plains on Saturday, with scattered rain and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast states. While moist, instability will become limited due to lack of heating in many areas, and as such severe storms are not currently forecast. From Sunday/D5 and beyond, rain and a few thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southeast as the cold front pushes offshore, with progressive drying each day. Beyond about Tuesday/D7, indications are that southwest flow aloft may return to parts of the western CONUS, with gradual moisture return into the southern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, a large but progressive upper trough will move across the Northeast, with a deep upper low over Hudson Bay. West of the initial trough, west/northwest flow will prevail across the CONUS, with various embedded waves. A front will linger from the Carolinas westward into TX, but will gradually shift south as high pressure spreads southeast out of the Plains. The undercutting cool air will lead to substantial clouds and precipitation over the southern Plains on Saturday, with scattered rain and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast states. While moist, instability will become limited due to lack of heating in many areas, and as such severe storms are not currently forecast. From Sunday/D5 and beyond, rain and a few thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southeast as the cold front pushes offshore, with progressive drying each day. Beyond about Tuesday/D7, indications are that southwest flow aloft may return to parts of the western CONUS, with gradual moisture return into the southern Plains. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, a large but progressive upper trough will move across the Northeast, with a deep upper low over Hudson Bay. West of the initial trough, west/northwest flow will prevail across the CONUS, with various embedded waves. A front will linger from the Carolinas westward into TX, but will gradually shift south as high pressure spreads southeast out of the Plains. The undercutting cool air will lead to substantial clouds and precipitation over the southern Plains on Saturday, with scattered rain and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast states. While moist, instability will become limited due to lack of heating in many areas, and as such severe storms are not currently forecast. From Sunday/D5 and beyond, rain and a few thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southeast as the cold front pushes offshore, with progressive drying each day. Beyond about Tuesday/D7, indications are that southwest flow aloft may return to parts of the western CONUS, with gradual moisture return into the southern Plains. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A large but low-amplitude upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies east across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley, and Great Lakes, with an upper low deepening over Ontario. Moderate midlevel westerlies will exist across much of the Plains into the OH Valley, with much weaker winds aloft from TX into the Southeast. Meanwhile, a weaker wave is expected to move across parts of the Southwest early on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will be prominent across the central and northern Plains as well as the MS and OH Valleys, with a cold front roughly stretching from central TX to the Appalachians. A moist air mass will exist south of this front, from TX eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Given a strong area of high pressure to the north, this front should continue to progress generally southward through the period. ...The Frontal Zone from TX to the Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms may linger from OH into eastern TN Friday morning near the front, with generally weak instability at that time and no severe threat expected. Other storms will form as heating occurs and the front interacts with moisture over the Carolinas. Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears reasonable, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict a deeply mixed boundary layer conducive for strong gusts while hodographs appear sufficiently long for cellular storm mode, and thus marginal hail risk. This threat should extend westward across parts of GA and AL near the front as well for daytime isolated severe wind or hail. Farther west, a large area of elevated instability will exist over the southern Plains, well north of the surface front from eastern TX to the middle Rio Grande Valley. Overall lift is expected to be weak in this region, with lesser heating potential and weak shear. The greatest chance of general thunderstorms here may be overnight near the 850 mb boundary from southwest TX to the Red River. Small hail cannot be ruled out given ample elevated CAPE. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A large but low-amplitude upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies east across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley, and Great Lakes, with an upper low deepening over Ontario. Moderate midlevel westerlies will exist across much of the Plains into the OH Valley, with much weaker winds aloft from TX into the Southeast. Meanwhile, a weaker wave is expected to move across parts of the Southwest early on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will be prominent across the central and northern Plains as well as the MS and OH Valleys, with a cold front roughly stretching from central TX to the Appalachians. A moist air mass will exist south of this front, from TX eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Given a strong area of high pressure to the north, this front should continue to progress generally southward through the period. ...The Frontal Zone from TX to the Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms may linger from OH into eastern TN Friday morning near the front, with generally weak instability at that time and no severe threat expected. Other storms will form as heating occurs and the front interacts with moisture over the Carolinas. Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears reasonable, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict a deeply mixed boundary layer conducive for strong gusts while hodographs appear sufficiently long for cellular storm mode, and thus marginal hail risk. This threat should extend westward across parts of GA and AL near the front as well for daytime isolated severe wind or hail. Farther west, a large area of elevated instability will exist over the southern Plains, well north of the surface front from eastern TX to the middle Rio Grande Valley. Overall lift is expected to be weak in this region, with lesser heating potential and weak shear. The greatest chance of general thunderstorms here may be overnight near the 850 mb boundary from southwest TX to the Red River. Small hail cannot be ruled out given ample elevated CAPE. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A large but low-amplitude upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies east across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley, and Great Lakes, with an upper low deepening over Ontario. Moderate midlevel westerlies will exist across much of the Plains into the OH Valley, with much weaker winds aloft from TX into the Southeast. Meanwhile, a weaker wave is expected to move across parts of the Southwest early on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will be prominent across the central and northern Plains as well as the MS and OH Valleys, with a cold front roughly stretching from central TX to the Appalachians. A moist air mass will exist south of this front, from TX eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Given a strong area of high pressure to the north, this front should continue to progress generally southward through the period. ...The Frontal Zone from TX to the Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms may linger from OH into eastern TN Friday morning near the front, with generally weak instability at that time and no severe threat expected. Other storms will form as heating occurs and the front interacts with moisture over the Carolinas. Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears reasonable, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict a deeply mixed boundary layer conducive for strong gusts while hodographs appear sufficiently long for cellular storm mode, and thus marginal hail risk. This threat should extend westward across parts of GA and AL near the front as well for daytime isolated severe wind or hail. Farther west, a large area of elevated instability will exist over the southern Plains, well north of the surface front from eastern TX to the middle Rio Grande Valley. Overall lift is expected to be weak in this region, with lesser heating potential and weak shear. The greatest chance of general thunderstorms here may be overnight near the 850 mb boundary from southwest TX to the Red River. Small hail cannot be ruled out given ample elevated CAPE. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic strong to marginally severe storms are possible on Friday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A large but low-amplitude upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies east across the northern Plains, upper MS Valley, and Great Lakes, with an upper low deepening over Ontario. Moderate midlevel westerlies will exist across much of the Plains into the OH Valley, with much weaker winds aloft from TX into the Southeast. Meanwhile, a weaker wave is expected to move across parts of the Southwest early on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure will be prominent across the central and northern Plains as well as the MS and OH Valleys, with a cold front roughly stretching from central TX to the Appalachians. A moist air mass will exist south of this front, from TX eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Given a strong area of high pressure to the north, this front should continue to progress generally southward through the period. ...The Frontal Zone from TX to the Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms may linger from OH into eastern TN Friday morning near the front, with generally weak instability at that time and no severe threat expected. Other storms will form as heating occurs and the front interacts with moisture over the Carolinas. Around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE appears reasonable, beneath modest west/northwest flow aloft. Forecast soundings depict a deeply mixed boundary layer conducive for strong gusts while hodographs appear sufficiently long for cellular storm mode, and thus marginal hail risk. This threat should extend westward across parts of GA and AL near the front as well for daytime isolated severe wind or hail. Farther west, a large area of elevated instability will exist over the southern Plains, well north of the surface front from eastern TX to the middle Rio Grande Valley. Overall lift is expected to be weak in this region, with lesser heating potential and weak shear. The greatest chance of general thunderstorms here may be overnight near the 850 mb boundary from southwest TX to the Red River. Small hail cannot be ruled out given ample elevated CAPE. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 04/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow is expected over the CONUS by D2/Thursday. Stronger westerly flow is expected to gradually shift east as weak high pressure builds over the West. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across much of the plains ushering in a cooler air mass. Surface high pressure behind the front should keep winds modest over much of the central US. The only exception to this may be across parts of far northeast NM and southern CO. Here, the dry air mass may remain sheltered from the cold front supporting at least brief localized fire-weather conditions D2/Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, fire-weather potential appears limited across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 04/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more