Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z. ...CO/WY/KS/NE... Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However, very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging winds. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern over the CONUS will be dominated by a large anticyclone in the West, centered over the Four Corners region, and troughing in the Great Lakes region. A well-developed, compact cyclone was centered over northwestern IN, along a trough extending from Lake Huron to northeastern AR. The cyclone should pivot eastward today and weaken somewhat, probably devolving back to a vorticity lobe within a strong open-wave trough at or soon after 00Z. At 00Z, that trough should extend from southern ON through the remnant low across northern/western OH, to the Tennessee Valley region. By 12Z, the trough should reach an axis near BUF-ZZV-LOZ-BHM. Well to the southwest and past the mid/upper-level high, the northern part of a trough extending to the tropical Pacific near T.S. Carlotta was noted in moisture-channel imagery over portions of southern CA and the Channel Islands. That portion of the longer trough should break off north-northwestward along the southern/ central CA Coast through the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front extending from a low near TOL southwestward across western IN, southern IL, southeastern MO, northern AR, central OK, the TX Panhandle, and east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from a diffuse low over eastern OH across eastern parts of KY/TN to northern MS, southern AR, and parts of north-central/northwest TX, with a prefrontal trough from eastern PA to west-central NC. By 12Z, the front should reach eastern parts of NY/PA, to northern AL, becoming quasistationary from there across northern MS and north TX. ...Eastern CONUS... Height falls and difluent flow aloft will spread across a large part of the East from the Appalachians eastward, ahead of the progressive mid/upper trough and associated surface cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form through the afternoon along/ ahead of the front, along the prefrontal trough, over favored higher elevations, and along outflow/differential-heating boundaries, all in rich low-level moisture and diurnally weakening ambient MLCINH. Where the combination of diurnal heating and boundary-layer moisture is greatest -- over portions of the Piedmont and coastal plain of the Carolinas (18-19 g/kg mean mixing ratio in the 12Z CHS sounding) and separately over northern parts of MS/AL -- 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE may be generated. Around 1500-2500 J/kg values are expected over most of the rest of the outlook area. Large-scale ascent aloft also will increase ahead of the mid/upper trough, though stronger winds aloft and deep shear should lag the cold front. The lack of greater shear should keep activity multicellular, with strong to isolated severe pulse-type gust potential being the main concern. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during mid/late afternoon over the Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge and nearby portions of southeastern WY, northeastern CO and the NE Panhandle. Activity should move southeastward toward a meridionally aligned moist axis over western parts of KS/NE and atop strong boundary- layer heating/mixing, with enough remaining moisture west of the axis to support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop DCAPE values about twice that. Though deep-layer flow will be modest, strong veering with height will yield 30-35 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting some multicellular organization and potential for upscale growth for a few hours. Thunderstorms should move generally southeastward and remain high-based, offering isolated severe gusts and marginal hail until convection weakens in stabilizing air this evening. ...Portions of southern AZ... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, mainly over higher elevations of the various mountain ranges on either side of the international border, and Mogollon Rim. The greatest potential for damaging to isolated severe gusts should be over portions of southeastern AZ, and south-central areas near the border, where mature cells can move over deep boundary layers characterized by hot antecedent surface temperatures, sufficient moisture to maintain 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally/briefly higher), and steep, nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates. As the southern CA trough moves away from the area, midlevel winds around the anticyclone should be predominantly southeasterly across this region, encouraging cell motions toward the west through northwest. Coverage and potential for wind-enhancing clustering will be limited by a lack of robust mid/upper-level support behind the trough aloft, but the most vigorous cells should pose a local risk of severe gusts. ..Edwards/Grams.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern over the CONUS will be dominated by a large anticyclone in the West, centered over the Four Corners region, and troughing in the Great Lakes region. A well-developed, compact cyclone was centered over northwestern IN, along a trough extending from Lake Huron to northeastern AR. The cyclone should pivot eastward today and weaken somewhat, probably devolving back to a vorticity lobe within a strong open-wave trough at or soon after 00Z. At 00Z, that trough should extend from southern ON through the remnant low across northern/western OH, to the Tennessee Valley region. By 12Z, the trough should reach an axis near BUF-ZZV-LOZ-BHM. Well to the southwest and past the mid/upper-level high, the northern part of a trough extending to the tropical Pacific near T.S. Carlotta was noted in moisture-channel imagery over portions of southern CA and the Channel Islands. That portion of the longer trough should break off north-northwestward along the southern/ central CA Coast through the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front extending from a low near TOL southwestward across western IN, southern IL, southeastern MO, northern AR, central OK, the TX Panhandle, and east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from a diffuse low over eastern OH across eastern parts of KY/TN to northern MS, southern AR, and parts of north-central/northwest TX, with a prefrontal trough from eastern PA to west-central NC. By 12Z, the front should reach eastern parts of NY/PA, to northern AL, becoming quasistationary from there across northern MS and north TX. ...Eastern CONUS... Height falls and difluent flow aloft will spread across a large part of the East from the Appalachians eastward, ahead of the progressive mid/upper trough and associated surface cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form through the afternoon along/ ahead of the front, along the prefrontal trough, over favored higher elevations, and along outflow/differential-heating boundaries, all in rich low-level moisture and diurnally weakening ambient MLCINH. Where the combination of diurnal heating and boundary-layer moisture is greatest -- over portions of the Piedmont and coastal plain of the Carolinas (18-19 g/kg mean mixing ratio in the 12Z CHS sounding) and separately over northern parts of MS/AL -- 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE may be generated. Around 1500-2500 J/kg values are expected over most of the rest of the outlook area. Large-scale ascent aloft also will increase ahead of the mid/upper trough, though stronger winds aloft and deep shear should lag the cold front. The lack of greater shear should keep activity multicellular, with strong to isolated severe pulse-type gust potential being the main concern. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during mid/late afternoon over the Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge and nearby portions of southeastern WY, northeastern CO and the NE Panhandle. Activity should move southeastward toward a meridionally aligned moist axis over western parts of KS/NE and atop strong boundary- layer heating/mixing, with enough remaining moisture west of the axis to support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop DCAPE values about twice that. Though deep-layer flow will be modest, strong veering with height will yield 30-35 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting some multicellular organization and potential for upscale growth for a few hours. Thunderstorms should move generally southeastward and remain high-based, offering isolated severe gusts and marginal hail until convection weakens in stabilizing air this evening. ...Portions of southern AZ... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, mainly over higher elevations of the various mountain ranges on either side of the international border, and Mogollon Rim. The greatest potential for damaging to isolated severe gusts should be over portions of southeastern AZ, and south-central areas near the border, where mature cells can move over deep boundary layers characterized by hot antecedent surface temperatures, sufficient moisture to maintain 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally/briefly higher), and steep, nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates. As the southern CA trough moves away from the area, midlevel winds around the anticyclone should be predominantly southeasterly across this region, encouraging cell motions toward the west through northwest. Coverage and potential for wind-enhancing clustering will be limited by a lack of robust mid/upper-level support behind the trough aloft, but the most vigorous cells should pose a local risk of severe gusts. ..Edwards/Grams.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern over the CONUS will be dominated by a large anticyclone in the West, centered over the Four Corners region, and troughing in the Great Lakes region. A well-developed, compact cyclone was centered over northwestern IN, along a trough extending from Lake Huron to northeastern AR. The cyclone should pivot eastward today and weaken somewhat, probably devolving back to a vorticity lobe within a strong open-wave trough at or soon after 00Z. At 00Z, that trough should extend from southern ON through the remnant low across northern/western OH, to the Tennessee Valley region. By 12Z, the trough should reach an axis near BUF-ZZV-LOZ-BHM. Well to the southwest and past the mid/upper-level high, the northern part of a trough extending to the tropical Pacific near T.S. Carlotta was noted in moisture-channel imagery over portions of southern CA and the Channel Islands. That portion of the longer trough should break off north-northwestward along the southern/ central CA Coast through the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front extending from a low near TOL southwestward across western IN, southern IL, southeastern MO, northern AR, central OK, the TX Panhandle, and east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from a diffuse low over eastern OH across eastern parts of KY/TN to northern MS, southern AR, and parts of north-central/northwest TX, with a prefrontal trough from eastern PA to west-central NC. By 12Z, the front should reach eastern parts of NY/PA, to northern AL, becoming quasistationary from there across northern MS and north TX. ...Eastern CONUS... Height falls and difluent flow aloft will spread across a large part of the East from the Appalachians eastward, ahead of the progressive mid/upper trough and associated surface cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form through the afternoon along/ ahead of the front, along the prefrontal trough, over favored higher elevations, and along outflow/differential-heating boundaries, all in rich low-level moisture and diurnally weakening ambient MLCINH. Where the combination of diurnal heating and boundary-layer moisture is greatest -- over portions of the Piedmont and coastal plain of the Carolinas (18-19 g/kg mean mixing ratio in the 12Z CHS sounding) and separately over northern parts of MS/AL -- 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE may be generated. Around 1500-2500 J/kg values are expected over most of the rest of the outlook area. Large-scale ascent aloft also will increase ahead of the mid/upper trough, though stronger winds aloft and deep shear should lag the cold front. The lack of greater shear should keep activity multicellular, with strong to isolated severe pulse-type gust potential being the main concern. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during mid/late afternoon over the Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge and nearby portions of southeastern WY, northeastern CO and the NE Panhandle. Activity should move southeastward toward a meridionally aligned moist axis over western parts of KS/NE and atop strong boundary- layer heating/mixing, with enough remaining moisture west of the axis to support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop DCAPE values about twice that. Though deep-layer flow will be modest, strong veering with height will yield 30-35 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting some multicellular organization and potential for upscale growth for a few hours. Thunderstorms should move generally southeastward and remain high-based, offering isolated severe gusts and marginal hail until convection weakens in stabilizing air this evening. ...Portions of southern AZ... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, mainly over higher elevations of the various mountain ranges on either side of the international border, and Mogollon Rim. The greatest potential for damaging to isolated severe gusts should be over portions of southeastern AZ, and south-central areas near the border, where mature cells can move over deep boundary layers characterized by hot antecedent surface temperatures, sufficient moisture to maintain 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally/briefly higher), and steep, nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates. As the southern CA trough moves away from the area, midlevel winds around the anticyclone should be predominantly southeasterly across this region, encouraging cell motions toward the west through northwest. Coverage and potential for wind-enhancing clustering will be limited by a lack of robust mid/upper-level support behind the trough aloft, but the most vigorous cells should pose a local risk of severe gusts. ..Edwards/Grams.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern over the CONUS will be dominated by a large anticyclone in the West, centered over the Four Corners region, and troughing in the Great Lakes region. A well-developed, compact cyclone was centered over northwestern IN, along a trough extending from Lake Huron to northeastern AR. The cyclone should pivot eastward today and weaken somewhat, probably devolving back to a vorticity lobe within a strong open-wave trough at or soon after 00Z. At 00Z, that trough should extend from southern ON through the remnant low across northern/western OH, to the Tennessee Valley region. By 12Z, the trough should reach an axis near BUF-ZZV-LOZ-BHM. Well to the southwest and past the mid/upper-level high, the northern part of a trough extending to the tropical Pacific near T.S. Carlotta was noted in moisture-channel imagery over portions of southern CA and the Channel Islands. That portion of the longer trough should break off north-northwestward along the southern/ central CA Coast through the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front extending from a low near TOL southwestward across western IN, southern IL, southeastern MO, northern AR, central OK, the TX Panhandle, and east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from a diffuse low over eastern OH across eastern parts of KY/TN to northern MS, southern AR, and parts of north-central/northwest TX, with a prefrontal trough from eastern PA to west-central NC. By 12Z, the front should reach eastern parts of NY/PA, to northern AL, becoming quasistationary from there across northern MS and north TX. ...Eastern CONUS... Height falls and difluent flow aloft will spread across a large part of the East from the Appalachians eastward, ahead of the progressive mid/upper trough and associated surface cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form through the afternoon along/ ahead of the front, along the prefrontal trough, over favored higher elevations, and along outflow/differential-heating boundaries, all in rich low-level moisture and diurnally weakening ambient MLCINH. Where the combination of diurnal heating and boundary-layer moisture is greatest -- over portions of the Piedmont and coastal plain of the Carolinas (18-19 g/kg mean mixing ratio in the 12Z CHS sounding) and separately over northern parts of MS/AL -- 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE may be generated. Around 1500-2500 J/kg values are expected over most of the rest of the outlook area. Large-scale ascent aloft also will increase ahead of the mid/upper trough, though stronger winds aloft and deep shear should lag the cold front. The lack of greater shear should keep activity multicellular, with strong to isolated severe pulse-type gust potential being the main concern. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during mid/late afternoon over the Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge and nearby portions of southeastern WY, northeastern CO and the NE Panhandle. Activity should move southeastward toward a meridionally aligned moist axis over western parts of KS/NE and atop strong boundary- layer heating/mixing, with enough remaining moisture west of the axis to support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop DCAPE values about twice that. Though deep-layer flow will be modest, strong veering with height will yield 30-35 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting some multicellular organization and potential for upscale growth for a few hours. Thunderstorms should move generally southeastward and remain high-based, offering isolated severe gusts and marginal hail until convection weakens in stabilizing air this evening. ...Portions of southern AZ... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, mainly over higher elevations of the various mountain ranges on either side of the international border, and Mogollon Rim. The greatest potential for damaging to isolated severe gusts should be over portions of southeastern AZ, and south-central areas near the border, where mature cells can move over deep boundary layers characterized by hot antecedent surface temperatures, sufficient moisture to maintain 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally/briefly higher), and steep, nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates. As the southern CA trough moves away from the area, midlevel winds around the anticyclone should be predominantly southeasterly across this region, encouraging cell motions toward the west through northwest. Coverage and potential for wind-enhancing clustering will be limited by a lack of robust mid/upper-level support behind the trough aloft, but the most vigorous cells should pose a local risk of severe gusts. ..Edwards/Grams.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern over the CONUS will be dominated by a large anticyclone in the West, centered over the Four Corners region, and troughing in the Great Lakes region. A well-developed, compact cyclone was centered over northwestern IN, along a trough extending from Lake Huron to northeastern AR. The cyclone should pivot eastward today and weaken somewhat, probably devolving back to a vorticity lobe within a strong open-wave trough at or soon after 00Z. At 00Z, that trough should extend from southern ON through the remnant low across northern/western OH, to the Tennessee Valley region. By 12Z, the trough should reach an axis near BUF-ZZV-LOZ-BHM. Well to the southwest and past the mid/upper-level high, the northern part of a trough extending to the tropical Pacific near T.S. Carlotta was noted in moisture-channel imagery over portions of southern CA and the Channel Islands. That portion of the longer trough should break off north-northwestward along the southern/ central CA Coast through the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front extending from a low near TOL southwestward across western IN, southern IL, southeastern MO, northern AR, central OK, the TX Panhandle, and east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from a diffuse low over eastern OH across eastern parts of KY/TN to northern MS, southern AR, and parts of north-central/northwest TX, with a prefrontal trough from eastern PA to west-central NC. By 12Z, the front should reach eastern parts of NY/PA, to northern AL, becoming quasistationary from there across northern MS and north TX. ...Eastern CONUS... Height falls and difluent flow aloft will spread across a large part of the East from the Appalachians eastward, ahead of the progressive mid/upper trough and associated surface cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form through the afternoon along/ ahead of the front, along the prefrontal trough, over favored higher elevations, and along outflow/differential-heating boundaries, all in rich low-level moisture and diurnally weakening ambient MLCINH. Where the combination of diurnal heating and boundary-layer moisture is greatest -- over portions of the Piedmont and coastal plain of the Carolinas (18-19 g/kg mean mixing ratio in the 12Z CHS sounding) and separately over northern parts of MS/AL -- 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE may be generated. Around 1500-2500 J/kg values are expected over most of the rest of the outlook area. Large-scale ascent aloft also will increase ahead of the mid/upper trough, though stronger winds aloft and deep shear should lag the cold front. The lack of greater shear should keep activity multicellular, with strong to isolated severe pulse-type gust potential being the main concern. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during mid/late afternoon over the Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge and nearby portions of southeastern WY, northeastern CO and the NE Panhandle. Activity should move southeastward toward a meridionally aligned moist axis over western parts of KS/NE and atop strong boundary- layer heating/mixing, with enough remaining moisture west of the axis to support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop DCAPE values about twice that. Though deep-layer flow will be modest, strong veering with height will yield 30-35 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting some multicellular organization and potential for upscale growth for a few hours. Thunderstorms should move generally southeastward and remain high-based, offering isolated severe gusts and marginal hail until convection weakens in stabilizing air this evening. ...Portions of southern AZ... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, mainly over higher elevations of the various mountain ranges on either side of the international border, and Mogollon Rim. The greatest potential for damaging to isolated severe gusts should be over portions of southeastern AZ, and south-central areas near the border, where mature cells can move over deep boundary layers characterized by hot antecedent surface temperatures, sufficient moisture to maintain 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally/briefly higher), and steep, nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates. As the southern CA trough moves away from the area, midlevel winds around the anticyclone should be predominantly southeasterly across this region, encouraging cell motions toward the west through northwest. Coverage and potential for wind-enhancing clustering will be limited by a lack of robust mid/upper-level support behind the trough aloft, but the most vigorous cells should pose a local risk of severe gusts. ..Edwards/Grams.. 08/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the pattern over the CONUS will be dominated by a large anticyclone in the West, centered over the Four Corners region, and troughing in the Great Lakes region. A well-developed, compact cyclone was centered over northwestern IN, along a trough extending from Lake Huron to northeastern AR. The cyclone should pivot eastward today and weaken somewhat, probably devolving back to a vorticity lobe within a strong open-wave trough at or soon after 00Z. At 00Z, that trough should extend from southern ON through the remnant low across northern/western OH, to the Tennessee Valley region. By 12Z, the trough should reach an axis near BUF-ZZV-LOZ-BHM. Well to the southwest and past the mid/upper-level high, the northern part of a trough extending to the tropical Pacific near T.S. Carlotta was noted in moisture-channel imagery over portions of southern CA and the Channel Islands. That portion of the longer trough should break off north-northwestward along the southern/ central CA Coast through the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front extending from a low near TOL southwestward across western IN, southern IL, southeastern MO, northern AR, central OK, the TX Panhandle, and east-central NM. By 00Z, the front should extend from a diffuse low over eastern OH across eastern parts of KY/TN to northern MS, southern AR, and parts of north-central/northwest TX, with a prefrontal trough from eastern PA to west-central NC. By 12Z, the front should reach eastern parts of NY/PA, to northern AL, becoming quasistationary from there across northern MS and north TX. ...Eastern CONUS... Height falls and difluent flow aloft will spread across a large part of the East from the Appalachians eastward, ahead of the progressive mid/upper trough and associated surface cold front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form through the afternoon along/ ahead of the front, along the prefrontal trough, over favored higher elevations, and along outflow/differential-heating boundaries, all in rich low-level moisture and diurnally weakening ambient MLCINH. Where the combination of diurnal heating and boundary-layer moisture is greatest -- over portions of the Piedmont and coastal plain of the Carolinas (18-19 g/kg mean mixing ratio in the 12Z CHS sounding) and separately over northern parts of MS/AL -- 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE may be generated. Around 1500-2500 J/kg values are expected over most of the rest of the outlook area. Large-scale ascent aloft also will increase ahead of the mid/upper trough, though stronger winds aloft and deep shear should lag the cold front. The lack of greater shear should keep activity multicellular, with strong to isolated severe pulse-type gust potential being the main concern. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form during mid/late afternoon over the Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge and nearby portions of southeastern WY, northeastern CO and the NE Panhandle. Activity should move southeastward toward a meridionally aligned moist axis over western parts of KS/NE and atop strong boundary- layer heating/mixing, with enough remaining moisture west of the axis to support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, atop DCAPE values about twice that. Though deep-layer flow will be modest, strong veering with height will yield 30-35 kt effective-shear magnitudes, supporting some multicellular organization and potential for upscale growth for a few hours. Thunderstorms should move generally southeastward and remain high-based, offering isolated severe gusts and marginal hail until convection weakens in stabilizing air this evening. ...Portions of southern AZ... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon, mainly over higher elevations of the various mountain ranges on either side of the international border, and Mogollon Rim. The greatest potential for damaging to isolated severe gusts should be over portions of southeastern AZ, and south-central areas near the border, where mature cells can move over deep boundary layers characterized by hot antecedent surface temperatures, sufficient moisture to maintain 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally/briefly higher), and steep, nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates. As the southern CA trough moves away from the area, midlevel winds around the anticyclone should be predominantly southeasterly across this region, encouraging cell motions toward the west through northwest. Coverage and potential for wind-enhancing clustering will be limited by a lack of robust mid/upper-level support behind the trough aloft, but the most vigorous cells should pose a local risk of severe gusts. ..Edwards/Grams.. 08/02/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models indicate that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes may trend less amplified by the middle of next week, as a mid-level low over northern Quebec weakens/redevelops eastward into the northwestern Atlantic and a prominent high over northwestern Canada becomes suppressed. As this occurs, it appears that low-level cooling and drying may advance southward toward the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath generally weak flow associated with mid/upper ridging. Developments across the West remain more uncertain, but it does appear that persistent mid-upper ridging will become suppressed. While it is possible that large-scale mid-level troughing may evolve across the Pacific Northwest and Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies vicinity, it is not clear that this will be accompanied by potential for more than isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development across the northern Intermountain region into northern U.S. Rockies. Read more