Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( ) or https:// means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.
Do you still have COVID-19 funeral costs?
Read more
×
FEMA may still be able to help. Visit the COVID-19 Funeral Assistance page. Or to learn more and start an application, call 1-844-684-6333 .
Main navigation
Search
1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 101200Z - 161200Z
A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the
northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs
around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for
fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week.
...D3/Saturday...
A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift
for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with
precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region
have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be
receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder
area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west
across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40%
Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of
strong surface winds.
...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday...
Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors
for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive
fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday.
The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical
highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to
reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for
Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in
Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases.
..Supinie.. 08/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/08/24
ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079-
083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177-
181-183-185-187-191-195-082240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN
CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GATES GRANVILLE GREENE
HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR
MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON
ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
TYRRELL VANCE WAKE
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WILSON
VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-
081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145-
147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730-
735-740-760-800-810-830-082240-
Read more
1 year ago
WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/08/24
ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079-
083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177-
181-183-185-187-191-195-082240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN
CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GATES GRANVILLE GREENE
HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR
MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON
ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
TYRRELL VANCE WAKE
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WILSON
VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-
081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145-
147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730-
735-740-760-800-810-830-082240-
Read more
1 year ago
WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/08/24
ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079-
083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177-
181-183-185-187-191-195-082240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN
CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GATES GRANVILLE GREENE
HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR
MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON
ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
TYRRELL VANCE WAKE
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WILSON
VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-
081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145-
147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730-
735-740-760-800-810-830-082240-
Read more
1 year ago
WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/08/24
ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079-
083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177-
181-183-185-187-191-195-082240-
NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN
CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN
CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN
DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN
GATES GRANVILLE GREENE
HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE
JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR
MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON
ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK
PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT
TYRRELL VANCE WAKE
WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE
WILSON
VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075-
081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145-
147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730-
735-740-760-800-810-830-082240-
Read more
1 year ago
WW 614 TORNADO NC VA CW 081645Z - 090000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern North Carolina
Central and Southeast Virginia
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM
until 800 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms embedded within the outer bands of Tropical
Storm Debby will continue to track northeastward across the watch
area through the afternoon, posing a risk of a few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Richmond VA to 50
miles southeast of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 613...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 14030.
...Hart
Read more
1 year ago
MD 1867 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 614... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1867
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 614...
Valid 081912Z - 082115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 614 continues.
SUMMARY...Brief tornado risk continues across portions of Tornado
Watch 614.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar loop shows little movement of the center
of Tropical Storm Debby (still in the vicinity of the North
Carolina/South Carolina border southeast of Charlotte, NC), while
individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern
quadrant of the storm having become a bit stronger in general over
the past couple of hours. This intensification is likely related to
modest heating through some cloud breaks, that has allowed weak
destabilization/small increases in mixed-layer CAPE to occur. In
tandem with this cellular increase, and given the favorable
background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms
exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed overall. The most
active area in terms of low-level circulations has been in the
vicinity of the northeastern North Carolina/southeastern Virginia
border region, where rotating cells continue moving northwestward,
along with occasional radar hints of potential/brief tornadoes.
Overall, expect the situation to remain generally steady-state, with
continued risk for brief tornadoes likely to persist over the next
several hours.
..Goss.. 08/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
LAT...LON 34517765 35407806 36367868 37207841 37507760 37297682
36597618 35287590 34257660 34517765
Read more
1 year ago
MD 1868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Areas affected...Southern Utah into western and central Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 081921Z - 082115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely near the
higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV this afternoon/evening.
Isolated damaging gusts are possible. Limited storm organization
suggests a WW is not expected.
DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery
showed initial thunderstorm development was ongoing over the higher
terrain of southern UT and across central AZ. Linked to robust
monsoonal moisture return and an MCV beneath an expansive western US
ridge, additional storm development is likely through the afternoon
hours. As remaining inhibition weakens, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will
support scattered high-based thunderstorms across the higher terrain
of southern UT and ahead of a weak MCV over central AZ. PWATs of
0.7-1 inch and relatively deep inverted-V profiles from area model
soundings will favor strong downdrafts with some potential for
damaging outflow winds as storms become established.
However, area VADs show flow aloft is quite limited (generally less
than 20 kt) beneath the ridge. Given the limited shear, a relatively
disorganized multi-cell storm mode is expected to limit the severe
risk. Given the limited organization potential a WW is unlikely at
this time.
..Lyons/Hart.. 08/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...
LAT...LON 36931405 38611328 38801303 39171174 38921043 38511012
37671053 36511149 35871180 35261154 34271065 33840984
33250982 31601041 31711119 31821138 32121193 32641257
33731347 34721405 36931405
Read more
1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.
...20Z Update...
Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook.
...Mid Atlantic...
As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby
continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in
convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have
become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours.
Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in
coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed,
and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over
the next several hours.
...UT/AZ...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead
of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with
isolated damaging gusts are possible.
..Mosier.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.
...UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.
Read more
1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.
...20Z Update...
Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook.
...Mid Atlantic...
As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby
continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in
convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have
become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours.
Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in
coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed,
and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over
the next several hours.
...UT/AZ...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead
of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with
isolated damaging gusts are possible.
..Mosier.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.
...UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.
Read more
1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.
...20Z Update...
Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook.
...Mid Atlantic...
As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby
continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in
convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have
become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours.
Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in
coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed,
and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over
the next several hours.
...UT/AZ...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead
of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with
isolated damaging gusts are possible.
..Mosier.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.
...UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.
Read more
1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.
...20Z Update...
Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook.
...Mid Atlantic...
As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby
continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in
convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have
become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours.
Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in
coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed,
and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over
the next several hours.
...UT/AZ...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead
of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with
isolated damaging gusts are possible.
..Mosier.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.
...UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.
Read more
1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.
...20Z Update...
Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook.
...Mid Atlantic...
As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby
continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in
convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have
become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours.
Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in
coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed,
and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over
the next several hours.
...UT/AZ...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead
of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with
isolated damaging gusts are possible.
..Mosier.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.
...UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.
Read more
1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.
...20Z Update...
Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook.
...Mid Atlantic...
As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby
continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in
convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have
become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours.
Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in
coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed,
and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over
the next several hours.
...UT/AZ...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead
of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with
isolated damaging gusts are possible.
..Mosier.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.
...UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.
Read more
1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.
...20Z Update...
Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook.
...Mid Atlantic...
As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby
continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in
convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have
become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours.
Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in
coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed,
and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over
the next several hours.
...UT/AZ...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead
of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with
isolated damaging gusts are possible.
..Mosier.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.
...UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.
Read more
1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.
...20Z Update...
Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook.
...Mid Atlantic...
As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby
continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in
convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have
become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours.
Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in
coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed,
and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over
the next several hours.
...UT/AZ...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead
of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with
isolated damaging gusts are possible.
..Mosier.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.
...UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.
Read more
1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of
the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect
portions of Utah and Arizona.
...20Z Update...
Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook.
...Mid Atlantic...
As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby
continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in
convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have
become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours.
Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in
coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed,
and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over
the next several hours.
...UT/AZ...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead
of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with
isolated damaging gusts are possible.
..Mosier.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Mid Atlantic...
The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and
tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level
winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z
CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection
and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across
north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build
northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle
after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning.
Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details.
...UT/AZ...
Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant
MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote
thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon
from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a
very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ,
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This,
combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms,
has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region.
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across
western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to
fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track.
..Supinie.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the
western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across
the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high
terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible
with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in.
While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this
region are critically dry and will support new ignitions.
Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho
into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah.
Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch
with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based
storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region
remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new
ignitions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across
western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to
fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track.
..Supinie.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the
western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across
the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high
terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible
with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in.
While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this
region are critically dry and will support new ignitions.
Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho
into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah.
Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch
with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based
storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region
remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new
ignitions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across
western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to
fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track.
..Supinie.. 08/08/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the
western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across
the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high
terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible
with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in.
While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this
region are critically dry and will support new ignitions.
Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho
into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah.
Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch
with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based
storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region
remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new
ignitions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
Subscribe to Severe Storms feed