SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level longwave trough is expected to amplify over the northwestern CONUS through the period. Various shortwave troughs around the periphery of this longwave trough may provide a focus for fire weather concerns over the weekend through early next week. ...D3/Saturday... A shortwave trough traversing the flow on Saturday may provide lift for thunderstorm activity across parts of the northern Rockies with precipitable water in the 0.5-0.75 inch range. Fuels in this region have received relatively little rain recently, and so should be receptive to new ignitions. Therefore, a 10% Isolated Dry Thunder area was added here to reflect the dry lightning risk. Farther west across portions of southern Idaho and northeastern Nevada, a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained with low RH and a corridor of strong surface winds. ...D4/Sunday through D6/Tuesday... Another shortwave trough embedded in the flow may provide corridors for strong winds in the presence of generally low RH and receptive fuels across much of the Great Basin region Sunday through Tuesday. The highest confidence for this is on D5/Monday, and a 40% Critical highlight has been maintained across portions of eastern Nevada to reflect this. Additional highlights may need to be introduced for Sunday and/or Tuesday in subsequent outlooks if confidence in Elevated or Critical fire conditions increases. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 614 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177- 181-183-185-187-191-195-082240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075- 081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730- 735-740-760-800-810-830-082240- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 614 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177- 181-183-185-187-191-195-082240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075- 081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730- 735-740-760-800-810-830-082240- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 614 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177- 181-183-185-187-191-195-082240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075- 081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730- 735-740-760-800-810-830-082240- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 614 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-063-065-069-073-077-079- 083-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-145-147-177- 181-183-185-187-191-195-082240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC007-011-025-029-031-033-036-037-041-049-053-057-065-073-075- 081-083-085-087-093-095-097-101-109-111-115-117-119-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-199-550-570-595-620-650-670-680-700-710-730- 735-740-760-800-810-830-082240- Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 614

1 year ago
WW 614 TORNADO NC VA CW 081645Z - 090000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Central and Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms embedded within the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby will continue to track northeastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Richmond VA to 50 miles southeast of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 613... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14030. ...Hart Read more

SPC MD 1867

1 year ago
MD 1867 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 614... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1867 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 614... Valid 081912Z - 082115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...Brief tornado risk continues across portions of Tornado Watch 614. DISCUSSION...Recent radar loop shows little movement of the center of Tropical Storm Debby (still in the vicinity of the North Carolina/South Carolina border southeast of Charlotte, NC), while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm having become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. This intensification is likely related to modest heating through some cloud breaks, that has allowed weak destabilization/small increases in mixed-layer CAPE to occur. In tandem with this cellular increase, and given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed overall. The most active area in terms of low-level circulations has been in the vicinity of the northeastern North Carolina/southeastern Virginia border region, where rotating cells continue moving northwestward, along with occasional radar hints of potential/brief tornadoes. Overall, expect the situation to remain generally steady-state, with continued risk for brief tornadoes likely to persist over the next several hours. ..Goss.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 34517765 35407806 36367868 37207841 37507760 37297682 36597618 35287590 34257660 34517765 Read more

SPC MD 1868

1 year ago
MD 1868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN UTAH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1868 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Southern Utah into western and central Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081921Z - 082115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV this afternoon/evening. Isolated damaging gusts are possible. Limited storm organization suggests a WW is not expected. DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery showed initial thunderstorm development was ongoing over the higher terrain of southern UT and across central AZ. Linked to robust monsoonal moisture return and an MCV beneath an expansive western US ridge, additional storm development is likely through the afternoon hours. As remaining inhibition weakens, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support scattered high-based thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern UT and ahead of a weak MCV over central AZ. PWATs of 0.7-1 inch and relatively deep inverted-V profiles from area model soundings will favor strong downdrafts with some potential for damaging outflow winds as storms become established. However, area VADs show flow aloft is quite limited (generally less than 20 kt) beneath the ridge. Given the limited shear, a relatively disorganized multi-cell storm mode is expected to limit the severe risk. Given the limited organization potential a WW is unlikely at this time. ..Lyons/Hart.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF... LAT...LON 36931405 38611328 38801303 39171174 38921043 38511012 37671053 36511149 35871180 35261154 34271065 33840984 33250982 31601041 31711119 31821138 32121193 32641257 33731347 34721405 36931405 Read more

SPC Aug 8, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC Aug 8, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC Aug 8, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC Aug 8, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC Aug 8, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC Aug 8, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC Aug 8, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC Aug 8, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC Aug 8, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated tornadoes are possible today and tonight over portions of the Mid Atlantic region. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect portions of Utah and Arizona. ...20Z Update... Overall, no changes are needed for this outlook. ...Mid Atlantic... As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1867, Tropical Storm Debby continues to move slowly northwestward, while individual cells in convective bands within the northeastern quadrant of the storm have become a bit stronger in general over the past couple of hours. Given the favorable background low-level flow field, an uptick in coverage of storms exhibiting low-level rotation has been observed, and a continued risk for brief tornadoes will likely to persist over the next several hours. ...UT/AZ... Scattered high-based thunderstorms near the higher terrain and ahead of a weak MCV are still expected this afternoon/evening, with isolated damaging gusts are possible. ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Mid Atlantic... The center of circulation of TS Debby will lift northward today and tonight across central NC/VA, with the zone of strongest low level winds/shear just to the northeast of the low. A consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest the main threat of semi-discrete convection and a few tornadoes this afternoon and evening will be across north-central NC and south-central VA. This threat will build northward into parts of northern VA and the Eastern WV Panhandle after dark, and eventually into central PA by Friday morning. Please refer to MCD #1866 for further short-term details. ...UT/AZ... Pockets of strong heating, ample mid-level moisture, and a remnant MCV tracking westward across northern AZ will help to promote thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon from western UT into northwest AZ. Morning surface analysis shows a very moist boundary-layer in place across central and southeast AZ, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and full sunshine expected. This, combined with 12z CAM solutions of active afternoon thunderstorms, has prompted an expansion of the MRGL risk into that region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z A few tweaks were made to the Isolated Dry Thunder area across western Montana to account for recent precipitation and impact to fuel moisture. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Supinie.. 08/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will traverse the northern periphery of the western US ridge on Friday with a modest increase in moisture across the Pacific Northwest, mainly west of the Cascades. Along the high terrain of the Cascades, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible with precipitable water values forecast to be around 0.50-0.75 in. While some mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may evolve, fuels in this region are critically dry and will support new ignitions. Further isolated thunderstorm development is expected across Idaho into southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and northern Utah. Precipitable water values are expected to be around 0.50-0.60 inch with very dry low-level profiles. This will support high-based storms with little to no precipitation. Fuels within this region remain in the 80th-90th percentile for dryness and receptive to new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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