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1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies,
though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough
will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger
mid-level winds.
Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of
northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough
and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling
into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho.
Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms
may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential
precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be
maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and
fuels are sufficiently receptive.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies,
though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough
will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger
mid-level winds.
Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of
northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough
and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling
into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho.
Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms
may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential
precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be
maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and
fuels are sufficiently receptive.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies,
though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough
will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger
mid-level winds.
Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of
northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough
and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling
into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho.
Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms
may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential
precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be
maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and
fuels are sufficiently receptive.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...Synopsis...
The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies,
though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough
will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger
mid-level winds.
Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of
northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough
and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling
into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon.
Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho.
Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms
may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential
precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be
maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and
fuels are sufficiently receptive.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into
part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude
upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day.
Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is
possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into
western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the
slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some
potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of
stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have
generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices
suggest some degree of receptiveness.
Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of
the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin.
Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated
conditions are likely to be spatially limited.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into
part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude
upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day.
Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is
possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into
western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the
slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some
potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of
stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have
generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices
suggest some degree of receptiveness.
Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of
the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin.
Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated
conditions are likely to be spatially limited.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into
part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude
upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day.
Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is
possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into
western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the
slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some
potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of
stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have
generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices
suggest some degree of receptiveness.
Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of
the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin.
Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated
conditions are likely to be spatially limited.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into
part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude
upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day.
Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is
possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into
western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the
slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some
potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of
stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have
generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices
suggest some degree of receptiveness.
Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of
the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin.
Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated
conditions are likely to be spatially limited.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into
part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude
upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day.
Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is
possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into
western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the
slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some
potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of
stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have
generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices
suggest some degree of receptiveness.
Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of
the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin.
Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated
conditions are likely to be spatially limited.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into
part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude
upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day.
Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is
possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into
western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the
slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some
potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of
stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have
generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices
suggest some degree of receptiveness.
Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of
the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin.
Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated
conditions are likely to be spatially limited.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into
part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude
upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day.
Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is
possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into
western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the
slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some
potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of
stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have
generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices
suggest some degree of receptiveness.
Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of
the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin.
Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated
conditions are likely to be spatially limited.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...Synopsis...
A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into
part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude
upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day.
Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is
possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into
western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the
slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some
potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of
stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have
generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices
suggest some degree of receptiveness.
Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of
the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin.
Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated
conditions are likely to be spatially limited.
..Wendt.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
1 year ago
MD 1871 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 615... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Areas affected...Middle Atlantic
Concerning...Tornado Watch 615...
Valid 090304Z - 090500Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually spread into extreme southern
Pennsylvania over the next several hours. However, this threat will
be limited by weaker buoyancy.
DISCUSSION...Tropical warm sector is gradually advancing north
across the Delmarva, per mid 70s surface dew points approaching
southeast PA. Latest diagnostic data suggests a fairly well-defined
boundary extends from central NJ-extreme southeast PA-northern VA.
Low-level shear has also increased at CCX where 0-3km SRH is now
around 350 m2/s2. Strongest updrafts have been confined to the
tropical warm sector and this will likely continue as buoyancy is
quite limited north of the boundary. Given the poor lapse rates, it
appears mid 70s dew points may be necessary for robust, longer-lived
updrafts. If/until this air mass spreads north, confidence is not
particularly high enough to warrant a new tornado watch. However,
will continue to monitor this transition zone for recovery north of
ww615.
..Darrow.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 39717828 40157663 40057569 39487574 39137695 38977813
39717828
Read more
1 year ago
WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/09/24
ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-090440-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510-
090440-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CARROLL CECIL CHARLES
FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS
WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
Read more
1 year ago
WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/09/24
ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-090440-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510-
090440-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CARROLL CECIL CHARLES
FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS
WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
Read more
1 year ago
MD 1870 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 615... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1870
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Areas affected...Middle Atlantic
Concerning...Tornado Watch 615...
Valid 090038Z - 090245Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado risk continues with supercells this evening.
DISCUSSION...Remnants of Debby have moved well inland and the center
of circulation is now located over western NC, east of CLT. LLJ is
strengthening across the middle Atlantic with latest model guidance
suggesting this will continue through sunrise as LLJ translates into
northern VA/MD/southern PA. Latest VAD data supports this with 0-3km
SRH now in excess of 300 m2/s2 at LWX. Numerous small supercells are
embedded within a larger precip shield, supported by moist low-level
warm advection. Radar data suggests several of the more robust
circulations have possibly produced tornadoes at times. While strong
shear persists across portions of the Carolinas, with time the
primary focus for organized supercells will begin to shift north
across VA into MD.
..Darrow.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...
LAT...LON 35447858 39567876 39567614 35437609 35447858
Read more
1 year ago
MD 1869 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1869
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Areas affected...Portions of Central/Southern Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090001Z - 090130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts remain possible into
the early evening in parts of central/southern Arizona.
DISCUSSION...A recent observed wind gust from the Tucson airport of
61 kts continues to suggest the potential for strong to severe wind
gusts exists in parts of central/southern Arizona. Outflow is also
becoming more evident on KIWA radar imagery. This outflow is
generally moving toward the Phoenix metro area. Strong to severe
wind gusts are possible as this occurs. Additional thunderstorms may
also develop as these outflow propagate into the lower deserts and
potentially interact with one another. These storms could produce
equally strong downburst winds given the very steep low-level lapse
rates.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 33691315 34121249 34261196 33691113 32591069 32201078
32071112 32211176 33691315
Read more
1 year ago
WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/09/24
ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-090240-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510-
090240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CARROLL CECIL CHARLES
FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS
WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
Read more
1 year ago
WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..08/09/24
ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-090240-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510-
090240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CARROLL CECIL CHARLES
FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD
MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS
WASHINGTON
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
Read more
1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the
Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of
Utah and Arizona.
...Mid Atlantic...
Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across
west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia
tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from
western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more
discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern
North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the
north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb
flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at
Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50
knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a
tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that
develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for
tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight
period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia.
...Desert Southwest...
Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing
across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface
dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the
50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In
spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas.
This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region
through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger
storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts.
..Broyles.. 08/09/2024
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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