SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level tough will continue into the northern Rockies, though it will lose more amplitude on Saturday. A surface trough will deepen in the northern Great Basin beneath a belt of stronger mid-level winds. Elevated fire weather conditions appear probable in portions of northern Nevada into southern Idaho. Surface winds near the trough and the lee of the Sierra will increase to 15-20 mph with RH falling into the teens to perhaps single digits during the afternoon. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible in central Idaho. Given the stronger flow aloft and dry boundary layer, these storms may produce little rainfall. Some impact on fuels from potential precipitation occurring on Friday could occur. Highlights will be maintained where confidence in storm development is highest and fuels are sufficiently receptive. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ..Wendt.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC MD 1871

1 year ago
MD 1871 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 615... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1871 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Tornado Watch 615... Valid 090304Z - 090500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually spread into extreme southern Pennsylvania over the next several hours. However, this threat will be limited by weaker buoyancy. DISCUSSION...Tropical warm sector is gradually advancing north across the Delmarva, per mid 70s surface dew points approaching southeast PA. Latest diagnostic data suggests a fairly well-defined boundary extends from central NJ-extreme southeast PA-northern VA. Low-level shear has also increased at CCX where 0-3km SRH is now around 350 m2/s2. Strongest updrafts have been confined to the tropical warm sector and this will likely continue as buoyancy is quite limited north of the boundary. Given the poor lapse rates, it appears mid 70s dew points may be necessary for robust, longer-lived updrafts. If/until this air mass spreads north, confidence is not particularly high enough to warrant a new tornado watch. However, will continue to monitor this transition zone for recovery north of ww615. ..Darrow.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39717828 40157663 40057569 39487574 39137695 38977813 39717828 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 615 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090440- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090440- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 615 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090440- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090440- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

SPC MD 1870

1 year ago
MD 1870 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 615... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 1870 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Tornado Watch 615... Valid 090038Z - 090245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado risk continues with supercells this evening. DISCUSSION...Remnants of Debby have moved well inland and the center of circulation is now located over western NC, east of CLT. LLJ is strengthening across the middle Atlantic with latest model guidance suggesting this will continue through sunrise as LLJ translates into northern VA/MD/southern PA. Latest VAD data supports this with 0-3km SRH now in excess of 300 m2/s2 at LWX. Numerous small supercells are embedded within a larger precip shield, supported by moist low-level warm advection. Radar data suggests several of the more robust circulations have possibly produced tornadoes at times. While strong shear persists across portions of the Carolinas, with time the primary focus for organized supercells will begin to shift north across VA into MD. ..Darrow.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 35447858 39567876 39567614 35437609 35447858 Read more

SPC MD 1869

1 year ago
MD 1869 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Central/Southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090001Z - 090130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts remain possible into the early evening in parts of central/southern Arizona. DISCUSSION...A recent observed wind gust from the Tucson airport of 61 kts continues to suggest the potential for strong to severe wind gusts exists in parts of central/southern Arizona. Outflow is also becoming more evident on KIWA radar imagery. This outflow is generally moving toward the Phoenix metro area. Strong to severe wind gusts are possible as this occurs. Additional thunderstorms may also develop as these outflow propagate into the lower deserts and potentially interact with one another. These storms could produce equally strong downburst winds given the very steep low-level lapse rates. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 33691315 34121249 34261196 33691113 32591069 32201078 32071112 32211176 33691315 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 615 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 615 Status Reports

1 year ago
WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

SPC Aug 9, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat will continue tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic. Strong thunderstorm wind gusts may affect parts of Utah and Arizona. ...Mid Atlantic... Tropical Depression Debby will continue to move northward across west-central North Carolina this evening and into southern Virginia tonight. The main rainband associated with Debby is located from western and northern Virginia into Maryland. Corridors with more discrete convection are located across southern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. These three convective areas are located to the north and east of Debby's center, where the RAP suggests that 850 mb flow is generally in the 40 to 50 knot range. The WSR-88D VWP at Richmond, Virginia is sampling the stronger flow, with about 50 knots at 2 km. This is contributing to 0-3 km storm-relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2, which will continue to support a tornado threat with the discrete or semi-discrete storms that develop within this strong low-level flow. The potential for tornadoes could continue into the late evening or early overnight period, as Debby moves into southern Virginia. ...Desert Southwest... Scattered to widely scattered monsoon thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Desert Southwest early this evening. Surface dewpoints across west-central Arizona and southern Utah are in the 50s and lower 60 F, which is contributing to weak instability. In spite of this, low-level lapse rates are still steep in some areas. This is evident on RAP forecast soundings, which maintain 0-3 km lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range across some of the region through mid to late evening. For this reason, a few of the stronger storms could produce marginally severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/09/2024 Read more
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