Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN NEW YORK...AND NEW JERSEY...AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes will be possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states northward across portions of New England. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across this region, along with parts of the southern High Plains, and southern Wyoming. ...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England... As the center of P.T.C. Debby -- now over south-central New York -- continues moving north-northeastward across New York today, and then into Quebec/across the St. Lawrence Valley this evening and tonight, very strong low-level shear will continue to spread northward across eastern New York and much of New England. While northward destabilization will be hindered by a lack of appreciable daytime heating due to widespread cloud cover, a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s) spreading northward toward the Canadian border will support at least neutrally buoyant profiles across most of New England this evening and tonight. As such, low (2%) tornado probability is being expanded northward/northeastward in this update, to include the remainder of northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire, and much of Maine, to cover the potential for a brief tornadic spin-up after dark. Otherwise, greatest potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist this afternoon and into this evening from eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York into parts of New Jersey, and across the Hudson and Champlain Valleys into western Vermont, western Massachusetts, and western Connecticut. ...Southern High Plains... Afternoon storm development is expected across the Raton Mesa vicinity of northeastern New Mexico, aided by afternoon heating/destabilization, and the eastward advance of a mid-level vort max across southern Colorado. Moderate (around 30 kt) mid-level westerlies may support some organization/upscale growth of storms into the evening, along with accompanying potential for a couple of strong gusts as convection crosses the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle area. ...Southern Wyoming... Daytime heating/modest destabilization across the Intermountain West will support development of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. With a belt of moderate (30 to 40 kt) northwesterly flow across the Wyoming vicinity, some storm organization will be possible. Some CAMs suggest eventual upscale growth into a loosely organized cluster by this evening, moving east-southeastward toward southeastern portions of the state. Resulting potential for a few stronger wind gusts with this activity warrants inclusion of 5% wind probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss/Weinman.. 08/09/2024 Read more

MD 1873 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 616... FOR PARTS OF MD/DE/NJ...EASTERN PA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1873 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Areas affected...Parts of MD/DE/NJ...eastern PA...central/eastern NY Concerning...Tornado Watch 616... Valid 091426Z - 091600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for locally damaging wind and a couple tornadoes will continue through the morning. Some expansion of the threat to the north is possible with time. DISCUSSION...Relatively shallow but strongly sheared convection is ongoing from parts of the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast, to the east of P.T.C. Debby. Area VWPs indicate that the stronger low/midlevel wind field is translating northward in association with Debby's fast-moving circulation, with weakening flow noted from KAKQ and KLWX, but strengthening flow farther to the northeast. A warm front extending east/northeast of Debby will translate northward through the day, though its progress may be slowed to some extent by widespread cloudiness/precipitation. Near and south of the warm front, tropical moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, with locally greater buoyancy possible where some filtered heating is ongoing from eastern PA into NJ and southeast NY. Very weak midlevel lapse rates may continue to limit updraft intensity and organization to some extent, but strong low/midlevel flow and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (locally greater near the surface low and warm front) will support potential for rotation with the stronger cells and line segments. A few tornadoes remain possible from late this morning into the afternoon, along with some potential for convectively enhanced wind damage. Some threat may eventually spread north of WW 616 in conjunction with the warm front, and additional watch issuance is possible later today. ..Dean/Goss.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP... LWX... LAT...LON 39367704 40257779 41387716 42677658 43207590 43397466 43367351 43337314 42527342 42087346 41707358 39847439 38727497 38227511 38027526 38037577 38357627 39027679 39367704 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more