Severe Storms

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0616 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... In mid/upper levels, a zonally elongated anticyclone will build laterally from the southern Plains into the Southwest and Gulf Coast region through much of the day-4-8 period. A general weakness in heights should persist over parts of CA and the lower Colorado River Valley region -- intermittently connected to northern-stream troughing over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada, and to the subtropical easterlies over MX. Low-amplitude mean ridging should build northward across the Rockies to the northern Rockies/northern High Plains region, but based on deterministic GFS/ECMWF and their ensembles, not intense enough to preclude penetration by a series of mostly low-amplitude/low-predictability shortwaves emanating from the Northwest troughing. Downstream, zonal to northwesterly and largely difluent flow will prevail over much of the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Even after the southeastern Canada/northeastern CONUS synoptic trough departs the region day-4, the preceding frontal zone will remain well-removed to the south, across the southeastern CONUS to Missouri Valley, as a series of trailing shortwaves reinforce somewhat lower-amplitude troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast. Especially from about day 5 onward, gradual return of favorable moisture is likely beneath the southwestern rim of the stronger associated flow -- from the north-central High Plains to the lower Missouri and Tennessee Valley regions. This general pattern conditionally supports some MCS potential, evolving from activity forming over the Plains and heading southeastward along or just to the cool side of the sensible baroclinic zone. However, day-to-day shortwave, low-level boundary and MCV predictability is too low to assign unconditional probabilities to any given day. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential appears too low and uncertain for an unconditional outlook at this time, though some threat may develop over parts of the south-central Plains region. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, the southeastern Canadian cyclone discussed in the day-2 outlook will move slowly eastward over central/southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley, perhaps with a southward repositioning of its net center as a strong shortwave trough is absorbed through its southern semicircle. Farther south, a combination of monsoonal- origin and convectively generated vorticity lobes should enter the southern fringes of the associated cyclonic flow aloft, moving from the central Plains around the start of the period (11/12Z) to the Ohio Valley central Appalachians region by 12/12Z. Strong ridging will persist over much of TX, with a synoptic ridge extending northwestward over the Four Corners and northern Rockies. As that occurs, the East Coast cold front should move farther southward, but slowly, extending across parts of SC to a frontal- wave low over central GA around 12/00Z, becoming quasistationary over the AL/MS coastal area to southern LA, then a warm front moving northward over central/western OK to southern KS (with some modification possible on the west end by rounds of antecedent convection and associated outflow over the south-central Plains). Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will be possible near and south of this boundary over the Southeast and Gulf Coast States. ...South-central Plains to lower Missouri Valley... A conditional severe threat may develop over portions of the south-central Plains -- OK and southern KS in late afternoon or evening near the front. Uncertain influences from outflow/ differential-heating boundaries left by prior convection, as well as the potential for strong capping to keep diurnal development suppressed, render this regime too conditional and spatially uncertain for an outlook this soon, though strong veering with height and increasing moisture/buoyancy should support a favorable CAPE-shear parameter space given initiation. North of the surface front, and nocturnally, elevated convection with hail potential may develop over parts of the lower Missouri Valley. Progs are inconsistent on this, given differences in frontal strength/ orientation and upstream variability in available moisture. ..Edwards.. 08/09/2024 Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW OAJ TO 30 E GSB TO 35 ENE RWI TO 30 ESE RZZ TO 40 S RIC TO 10 NE RIC TO 25 N RIC TO 35 NNW RIC TO 20 SSE SHD. ..JEWELL..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090840- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090840- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW OAJ TO 30 E GSB TO 35 ENE RWI TO 30 ESE RZZ TO 40 S RIC TO 10 NE RIC TO 25 N RIC TO 35 NNW RIC TO 20 SSE SHD. ..JEWELL..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...MHX...AKQ...RNK...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-090840- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-015-017-021-025-027-031-033-037-043-510- 090840- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more