Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The previous forecast remains on track with some expansion of both isolated dry-thunderstorm risk areas needed based on recent observations and trends in latest guidance. ...northern Rockies... As of 15 UTC, isolated lightning strikes were noted across portions of southern ID and northern UT. Negligible MRMS rainfall rate and 1-hour accumulation estimates associated with this convection suggests that little rainfall is reaching the surface. Given the very dry sub-cloud layer noted in the 12 UTC BOI sounding and an extensive plume of agitated mid-level cumulus, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms appears to be more widespread than previously forecast. ...northern Washington... To the northwest across north-central WA, convection along the international border appears to be producing areas of wetting rainfall based on MRMS rainfall estimates. However, the 12 UTC OTX sounding amd GOES PWAT estimates suggest drier conditions exist east of the Cascades where a convective signal is noted in 12 UTC CAM guidance. ...northeast Nevada... Areas of breezy/dry conditions remain likely this afternoon across northeast NV; however, morning guidance continues to suggest that elevated fire weather conditions should remain fairly isolated and transient given an overall nebulous/weak synoptic regime. ..Moore.. 08/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A subdued upper-level ridge will persist within the Great Basin into part of the northern Rockies. In the Northwest, a low-amplitude upper trough will make gradual progress eastward through the day. Some isolated thunderstorm activity, some of which may be dry, is possible in the northern Cascades as well as central Idaho into western Wyoming. Storm motions in Washington will a touch on the slow side, make a mix of wet/dry storms probable. Storms have some potential to be drier in the northern Rockies given the belt of stronger mid-level winds aloft. Fuels within the terrain have generally received lower rainfall amounts recently and fuels indices suggest some degree of receptiveness. Marginally dry and breezy conditions are also expected in the lee of the northern Sierra into adjacent parts of the northern Great Basin. Winds will not be overly strong and any sustained elevated conditions are likely to be spatially limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ORF TO 15 W HGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 ..DEAN..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-091540- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-019-025-027-029-035-037-039-041-045- 047-510-091540- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL DORCHESTER HARFORD HOWARD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ORF TO 15 W HGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 ..DEAN..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-091540- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-019-025-027-029-035-037-039-041-045- 047-510-091540- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL DORCHESTER HARFORD HOWARD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ORF TO 15 W HGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 ..DEAN..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-091540- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-019-025-027-029-035-037-039-041-045- 047-510-091540- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL DORCHESTER HARFORD HOWARD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ORF TO 15 W HGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 ..DEAN..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-091540- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-019-025-027-029-035-037-039-041-045- 047-510-091540- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL DORCHESTER HARFORD HOWARD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ORF TO 15 W HGR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1873 ..DEAN..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-091540- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-019-025-027-029-035-037-039-041-045- 047-510-091540- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL DORCHESTER HARFORD HOWARD KENT QUEEN ANNE'S ST. MARYS SOMERSET TALBOT WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 616 TORNADO DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA CW 091015Z - 091800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 616 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Much of New Jersey Southeast New York Central and Eastern Pennsylvania Eastern and Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 615 AM until 200 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this morning into the early afternoon as a warm front advances northward across the Watch area. Several supercells will likely develop and the stronger storms will potentially yield a risk for tornadoes. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the more intense storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Monticello NY to 50 miles south southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 615... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 18035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Mid-Atlantic states northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast... The remnants of Debby will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate reaching the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening as a mid-level speed max over the Midwest quickly moves through the southern and Lower Great Lakes regions. A warm front will advance northward into central NY and New England later today as a southerly 850-mb speed max shifts northward. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (mid 70s deg F surface dewpoints) and some modest heating will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization. The 12 UTC IAD raob showed 250 J/kg MLCAPE and 36 kt of 0-0.5 km shear. Enlarged hodographs especially in the vicinity of the surface frontal zone will aid in storm-scale rotation with any robust updraft. The risk for a few tornadoes will likely focus initially over the Mid-Atlantic states and PA this morning before shifting northward towards early afternoon. A wind-damage threat may also develop today with the stronger linear structures and supercells. This activity is expected to eventually affect parts of western New England by mid to late afternoon and into the early evening before diminishing. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Model forecasts indicate widely scattered to scattered storms will favor this region later this afternoon into the early evening. The expected moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Mid-Atlantic states northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast... The remnants of Debby will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate reaching the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening as a mid-level speed max over the Midwest quickly moves through the southern and Lower Great Lakes regions. A warm front will advance northward into central NY and New England later today as a southerly 850-mb speed max shifts northward. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (mid 70s deg F surface dewpoints) and some modest heating will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization. The 12 UTC IAD raob showed 250 J/kg MLCAPE and 36 kt of 0-0.5 km shear. Enlarged hodographs especially in the vicinity of the surface frontal zone will aid in storm-scale rotation with any robust updraft. The risk for a few tornadoes will likely focus initially over the Mid-Atlantic states and PA this morning before shifting northward towards early afternoon. A wind-damage threat may also develop today with the stronger linear structures and supercells. This activity is expected to eventually affect parts of western New England by mid to late afternoon and into the early evening before diminishing. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Model forecasts indicate widely scattered to scattered storms will favor this region later this afternoon into the early evening. The expected moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Mid-Atlantic states northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast... The remnants of Debby will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate reaching the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening as a mid-level speed max over the Midwest quickly moves through the southern and Lower Great Lakes regions. A warm front will advance northward into central NY and New England later today as a southerly 850-mb speed max shifts northward. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (mid 70s deg F surface dewpoints) and some modest heating will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization. The 12 UTC IAD raob showed 250 J/kg MLCAPE and 36 kt of 0-0.5 km shear. Enlarged hodographs especially in the vicinity of the surface frontal zone will aid in storm-scale rotation with any robust updraft. The risk for a few tornadoes will likely focus initially over the Mid-Atlantic states and PA this morning before shifting northward towards early afternoon. A wind-damage threat may also develop today with the stronger linear structures and supercells. This activity is expected to eventually affect parts of western New England by mid to late afternoon and into the early evening before diminishing. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Model forecasts indicate widely scattered to scattered storms will favor this region later this afternoon into the early evening. The expected moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Mid-Atlantic states northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast... The remnants of Debby will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate reaching the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening as a mid-level speed max over the Midwest quickly moves through the southern and Lower Great Lakes regions. A warm front will advance northward into central NY and New England later today as a southerly 850-mb speed max shifts northward. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (mid 70s deg F surface dewpoints) and some modest heating will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization. The 12 UTC IAD raob showed 250 J/kg MLCAPE and 36 kt of 0-0.5 km shear. Enlarged hodographs especially in the vicinity of the surface frontal zone will aid in storm-scale rotation with any robust updraft. The risk for a few tornadoes will likely focus initially over the Mid-Atlantic states and PA this morning before shifting northward towards early afternoon. A wind-damage threat may also develop today with the stronger linear structures and supercells. This activity is expected to eventually affect parts of western New England by mid to late afternoon and into the early evening before diminishing. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Model forecasts indicate widely scattered to scattered storms will favor this region later this afternoon into the early evening. The expected moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Mid-Atlantic states northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast... The remnants of Debby will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate reaching the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening as a mid-level speed max over the Midwest quickly moves through the southern and Lower Great Lakes regions. A warm front will advance northward into central NY and New England later today as a southerly 850-mb speed max shifts northward. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (mid 70s deg F surface dewpoints) and some modest heating will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization. The 12 UTC IAD raob showed 250 J/kg MLCAPE and 36 kt of 0-0.5 km shear. Enlarged hodographs especially in the vicinity of the surface frontal zone will aid in storm-scale rotation with any robust updraft. The risk for a few tornadoes will likely focus initially over the Mid-Atlantic states and PA this morning before shifting northward towards early afternoon. A wind-damage threat may also develop today with the stronger linear structures and supercells. This activity is expected to eventually affect parts of western New England by mid to late afternoon and into the early evening before diminishing. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Model forecasts indicate widely scattered to scattered storms will favor this region later this afternoon into the early evening. The expected moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Mid-Atlantic states northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast... The remnants of Debby will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate reaching the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening as a mid-level speed max over the Midwest quickly moves through the southern and Lower Great Lakes regions. A warm front will advance northward into central NY and New England later today as a southerly 850-mb speed max shifts northward. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (mid 70s deg F surface dewpoints) and some modest heating will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization. The 12 UTC IAD raob showed 250 J/kg MLCAPE and 36 kt of 0-0.5 km shear. Enlarged hodographs especially in the vicinity of the surface frontal zone will aid in storm-scale rotation with any robust updraft. The risk for a few tornadoes will likely focus initially over the Mid-Atlantic states and PA this morning before shifting northward towards early afternoon. A wind-damage threat may also develop today with the stronger linear structures and supercells. This activity is expected to eventually affect parts of western New England by mid to late afternoon and into the early evening before diminishing. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Model forecasts indicate widely scattered to scattered storms will favor this region later this afternoon into the early evening. The expected moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Mid-Atlantic states northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast... The remnants of Debby will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate reaching the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening as a mid-level speed max over the Midwest quickly moves through the southern and Lower Great Lakes regions. A warm front will advance northward into central NY and New England later today as a southerly 850-mb speed max shifts northward. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (mid 70s deg F surface dewpoints) and some modest heating will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization. The 12 UTC IAD raob showed 250 J/kg MLCAPE and 36 kt of 0-0.5 km shear. Enlarged hodographs especially in the vicinity of the surface frontal zone will aid in storm-scale rotation with any robust updraft. The risk for a few tornadoes will likely focus initially over the Mid-Atlantic states and PA this morning before shifting northward towards early afternoon. A wind-damage threat may also develop today with the stronger linear structures and supercells. This activity is expected to eventually affect parts of western New England by mid to late afternoon and into the early evening before diminishing. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Model forecasts indicate widely scattered to scattered storms will favor this region later this afternoon into the early evening. The expected moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected today from the Mid-Atlantic states northward into eastern New York. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the Northeast, and in parts of the southern Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Northeast... The remnants of Debby will continue to move north-northeast and accelerate reaching the St. Lawrence Valley late this evening as a mid-level speed max over the Midwest quickly moves through the southern and Lower Great Lakes regions. A warm front will advance northward into central NY and New England later today as a southerly 850-mb speed max shifts northward. South of the boundary, a very moisture-rich airmass (mid 70s deg F surface dewpoints) and some modest heating will contribute to weak to moderate destabilization. The 12 UTC IAD raob showed 250 J/kg MLCAPE and 36 kt of 0-0.5 km shear. Enlarged hodographs especially in the vicinity of the surface frontal zone will aid in storm-scale rotation with any robust updraft. The risk for a few tornadoes will likely focus initially over the Mid-Atlantic states and PA this morning before shifting northward towards early afternoon. A wind-damage threat may also develop today with the stronger linear structures and supercells. This activity is expected to eventually affect parts of western New England by mid to late afternoon and into the early evening before diminishing. ...East-central Texas... A moist airmass will be in place today across parts of the Texas Coastal Plains northward into the Texas Hill Country. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across parts of central and east Texas. Model forecasts indicate widely scattered to scattered storms will favor this region later this afternoon into the early evening. The expected moderate instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient for a few marginally severe wind gusts. ...Southern High Plains... A large area of mid to upper-level high pressure will remain over the southern Plains today. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will be in place across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will likely develop along this corridor. Convection that initiates in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico is expected to move southeastward along the northern edge of this instability corridor during the afternoon and evening. The stronger cells within this cluster may be associated with marginally severe wind gusts. ..Smith/Jewell.. 08/09/2024 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-091340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-091340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-045-047-510-091340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 616 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..JEWELL..08/09/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 616 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-091340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-091340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-045-047-510-091340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT Read more

MD 1872 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 615... FOR SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1872 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Fri Aug 09 2024 Areas affected...southern Pennsylvania...northern Virginia...Maryland Concerning...Tornado Watch 615... Valid 090838Z - 091145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...The potential remains for brief tornadoes tonight, mainly from northern Virginia into southeast Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front well into PA, where low-level winds remain backed and are now gusting to 25-30 kt out of the southeast. Theta-e has increased with the passage of the warm front, with mid 70s F dewpoints and temperatures of 77-80 F. Meanwhile, area VWPS indicate that low-level shear remains quite favorable for brief tornadoes, with 0-1 km SRH values over 200 m2/s2. Recent radar trends indicate increasing storms just east of the low, where enhanced lift is interacting with the still warm and unstable air mass. Given current trends, growing showers could become supercells over the next several hours, with a tornado risk. In addition, other convection interacting with the warm front farther north may also attain rotation. As such, the tornado watch continues, and areas just north of the ongoing watch may need to be addressed later this morning as the air mass, and lift, remain favorable. ..Jewell.. 08/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38397820 38567829 39137844 39757818 40327756 40887605 40807558 40537528 40177534 39427574 38677609 38307619 37967685 37967722 38287796 38397820 Read more

WW 0616 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0616 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more