Severe Storms

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081340- VA Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081340- VA Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081240- Read more

MD 1864 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 613... FOR EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1864 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NC into southeast VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 613... Valid 080947Z - 081145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 613 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes will continue through and after dawn. DISCUSSION...Multiple small but tornadic supercells have moved across parts of eastern NC early this morning, within the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby. Thus far, the tornadic cells have occurred along the eastern periphery of a larger precipitation shield, where rich moisture and upper 70s F temperatures are supporting MLCAPE of greater than 500 J/kg. Some increase in low-level flow has been noted from the KRAX and KMHX VWPs, with 0-1 km SRH of 200-350 m2/s2 for observed storm motions. This magnitude of low-level shear/SRH will continue to support tornado potential with any sustained supercell structures through and after dawn. The greatest short-term threat may continue in the vicinity of a convective band from east of Raleigh to near/west of Morehead City. However, the threat may expand to the north and east with time, into areas where little precipitation is currently occurring, and somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible after sunrise. An eventual increase in tornado threat is also possible to the west of WW 613, depending on trends regarding ongoing precipitation and potential for modest destabilization. ..Dean.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 36167904 36857767 37357631 36447563 35917538 35477544 34697619 34427693 34337760 35217924 35937935 36167904 Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081040- Read more

WW 0613 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 613 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1864 ..DEAN..08/08/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 613 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-069-073-077-079- 083-085-091-095-101-103-107-117-127-131-133-137-139-143-147-163- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-081040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT SAMPSON TYRRELL VANCE WAKE WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-073-081-093-095-115-175-181-183-199-550-595-620-650-700- 710-735-740-800-810-830-081040- Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output exhibits considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving mid/upper flow through this period. In general, though, it appears that an initially significant, positively tilted mid-level trough will become increasingly sheared while progressing through a confluent regime across and east of the North Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. In its wake, generally weak zonal flow across the U.S. may undergo some amplification by the middle to later portion of next week, including rising mid-level heights to the lee of the Rockies, downstream of digging mid-level troughing near the Pacific coast. As this regime evolves, boundary-layer dew points are likely to gradually increase beneath the mid-level ridge, probably back into the 70s F across parts of the lower through middle Missouri Valley. Across the middle Missouri Valley, perhaps into lower Missouri Valley, it appears that this may occur beneath an east-southeastward advecting plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, which may contribute to increasing probabilities for mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg by next Wednesday or Thursday. While there may be some potential for strong thunderstorm activity, initiating to the lee of the northern Rockies and Front Range, to grow upscale and organize while progressing into this environment, this likely will hinge on forcing accompanying sub-synoptic perturbations progressing around the ridge. Given the low-predictability of these features at this extended time frame, severe probabilities still appear generally low through this period. Read more

MD 1863 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 612... FOR EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 1863 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern NC Concerning...Tornado Watch 612... Valid 080619Z - 080815Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 612 continues. SUMMARY...Some tornado threat will continue overnight. New watch issuance to the west of WW 612 is possible. DISCUSSION...Occasional small supercells have been redeveloping across parts of eastern NC early this morning, within an environment characterized by rich tropical moisture and relatively strong low-level shear/SRH (with 0-1 km SRH near 200 m2/s2 per the KMHX VWP). This process may continue through the overnight, as convection continues to spread inland within the northeast quadrant of Tropical Storm Debby, with an attendant tornado threat. Thus far, the western extent of the threat has been limited by an extensive rain shield further inland across parts of central/eastern NC. However, this rain shield may tend to shift somewhat westward with time, with potential for some destabilization and an increasing tornado threat to the west of WW 612. New watch issuance is possible in order to address the potentially expanding threat. ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34267806 34467830 34827849 35327842 35837807 36237759 36357623 36327611 36087561 35707538 35127562 34547622 34277685 34117752 34157777 34267806 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...New England... Models are varied in depiction of surface cyclogenesis east-northeast of the Great Lakes region into the upper St. Lawrence Valley through 12Z Saturday, and the merging of Debby's remnant low into this cyclonic regime. However, in general, it appears that one initial occluding cyclone may continue to weaken across western Quebec during the day Saturday, while another area of consolidating low pressure continues to deepen east-northeastward through the remainder of the St. Lawrence Valley and the Gulf of St. Lawrence by Saturday night. Regardless, most guidance indicates that the belt of seasonably strong southerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow and convective development associated with this regime will shift into the Canadian Maritimes early in the period, prior to any potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. ...Elsewhere... Generally beneath mid-level ridging across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, while a plume of moisture emanating from the lower latitudes appears likely to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, lingering boundary-layer moisture ahead of a surface cold front advancing toward the south Atlantic coast may support moderately large CAPE with daytime heating. This might be accompanied by widely scattered strong thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. More widespread, but generally weaker, elevated thunderstorm development appears probable above the western flank of the front, across the Great Plains to the east of the southern Rockies, aided by forcing associated with low-level warm advection Saturday through Saturday night. A low-amplitude wave migrating around the periphery of the ridging may also contribute to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development, where boundary-layer instability becomes diurnally maximized across the eastern Great Basin into the Rockies late Saturday afternoon and evening. Although in each of these areas a few of the strongest storms could pose some risk for severe wind and/or hail, this still seems likely to remain sparse enough in coverage to maintain severe probabilities at less than 5 percent. However, it is possible that this could still change in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 08/08/2024 Read more