Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually deamplify, moving from the northern Plains on Wednesday to the Great Lakes on Friday. An axis of instability will likely remain in the central and northern Plains from mid to late week, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast over the Dakotas on Wednesday, with the ECMWF having SBCAPE peak above 4000 J/kg along the instability axis. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, would support isolated supercell development. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. However, some solutions suggest that the upper-level ridge will be slower to move eastward, which would keep convection more isolated on Wednesday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Wednesday. A similar setup is forecast on Thursday and Friday, which would support a marginal severe threat across the northern Plains each afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, some of the medium-range models have an upper-level trough moving through the northern Rockies and Intermountain West. Southwesterly flow would be in place across much of the north-central U.S. Ahead of this feature, scattered thunderstorm would be possible across parts of the northern High Plains and Dakotas. Under this scenario, which is favored by the ECMWF, severe storms would be possible in parts of the northern Plains extending south-southeastward along the instability axis into the mid Missouri Valley. The severe threat would be shifted eastward into the parts of the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. For the weekend, other models are considerably slower with the progression of the western U.S. upper-level trough, which adds a lot of forecast uncertainty. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually deamplify, moving from the northern Plains on Wednesday to the Great Lakes on Friday. An axis of instability will likely remain in the central and northern Plains from mid to late week, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast over the Dakotas on Wednesday, with the ECMWF having SBCAPE peak above 4000 J/kg along the instability axis. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, would support isolated supercell development. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. However, some solutions suggest that the upper-level ridge will be slower to move eastward, which would keep convection more isolated on Wednesday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Wednesday. A similar setup is forecast on Thursday and Friday, which would support a marginal severe threat across the northern Plains each afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, some of the medium-range models have an upper-level trough moving through the northern Rockies and Intermountain West. Southwesterly flow would be in place across much of the north-central U.S. Ahead of this feature, scattered thunderstorm would be possible across parts of the northern High Plains and Dakotas. Under this scenario, which is favored by the ECMWF, severe storms would be possible in parts of the northern Plains extending south-southeastward along the instability axis into the mid Missouri Valley. The severe threat would be shifted eastward into the parts of the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. For the weekend, other models are considerably slower with the progression of the western U.S. upper-level trough, which adds a lot of forecast uncertainty. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually deamplify, moving from the northern Plains on Wednesday to the Great Lakes on Friday. An axis of instability will likely remain in the central and northern Plains from mid to late week, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop each afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast over the Dakotas on Wednesday, with the ECMWF having SBCAPE peak above 4000 J/kg along the instability axis. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, would support isolated supercell development. Large hail and severe wind gusts would be the primary threats. However, some solutions suggest that the upper-level ridge will be slower to move eastward, which would keep convection more isolated on Wednesday. For this reason, will not add a threat area for Wednesday. A similar setup is forecast on Thursday and Friday, which would support a marginal severe threat across the northern Plains each afternoon and evening. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday, some of the medium-range models have an upper-level trough moving through the northern Rockies and Intermountain West. Southwesterly flow would be in place across much of the north-central U.S. Ahead of this feature, scattered thunderstorm would be possible across parts of the northern High Plains and Dakotas. Under this scenario, which is favored by the ECMWF, severe storms would be possible in parts of the northern Plains extending south-southeastward along the instability axis into the mid Missouri Valley. The severe threat would be shifted eastward into the parts of the upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. For the weekend, other models are considerably slower with the progression of the western U.S. upper-level trough, which adds a lot of forecast uncertainty. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern Plains on Tuesday. ...Central and Northern Plains... A shortwave ridge over eastern parts of the northern Plains is forecast to deamplify on Tuesday, as a large-scale upper-level ridge further west, moves eastward across the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough is forecast to deepen over the central and northern High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from western Nebraska into the Dakotas. Some model solutions show potential for morning convection near the moist axis, which would be associated with a perturbation moving through the flow, and a belt of stronger low-level flow. Cells within this convection could obtain an isolated severe threat, as temperatures warm during the day. By afternoon, some model solutions suggest that subsidence will overspread much of the northern Plains. While isolated storms would be possible, this would potentially cause updrafts to struggle. Any cell that could persist could have a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. The marginal severe threat could extend as far south as northeastern Colorado, where moderate instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates could be enough for a few severe gusts. ..Broyles.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more