Severe Storms

WW 0631 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 631 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/17/24 ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...PQR...PDT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 631 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CAC093-105-172240- CA . CALIFORNIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SISKIYOU TRINITY ORC005-017-019-027-029-039-043-047-051-172240- OR . OREGON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLACKAMAS DESCHUTES DOUGLAS HOOD RIVER JACKSON LANE LINN MARION MULTNOMAH WAC011-059-172240- WA . WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK SKAMANIA Read more

WW 0632 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 632 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/17/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 632 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC015-019-029-055-115-172240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHEROKEE CLEBURNE ETOWAH ST. CLAIR GAC011-013-015-045-047-055-057-059-067-083-085-089-097-105-111- 115-117-119-121-123-129-135-137-139-143-147-157-187-195-213-219- 221-223-227-233-241-247-257-281-291-295-297-311-313-317- 172240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARROW BARTOW CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLARKE COBB DADE DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS ELBERT FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN FULTON GILMER GORDON GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL HARALSON HART JACKSON Read more

MD 1933 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1933 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Areas affected...Southern Middle Tennessee...northern Alabama...northern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171957Z - 172130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail threat to persist through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm activity across northern Alabama/southern Tennessee into northern Georgia has shown increase in intensity, with transient supercell characteristics. These are occurring in the vicinity of a remnant MCV, which has led to a narrow corridor of 30-40 kts of deep layer shear likely contributing to a more organized storm mode. Temperatures in this region have warmed into the low to mid 90s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, with MLCAPE analyzed around 2000-2500 J/kg. This moist and unstable air mass will support potential for wet downbursts and perhaps a risk of large hail and damaging wind from stronger more organized storms. This activity will likely continue to increase in coverage, potentially clustering along outflow, into northern Georgia and South Carolina through the afternoon/evening. Should this occur, the risk of damaging wind may increase. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward at 20z, and a watch may be needed to cover this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 35138672 35488543 35308414 35208327 35018254 34648168 34198123 33968168 33868262 33598450 33868664 34298735 35138672 Read more

MD 1932 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ALONG THE OREGON CASCADES AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES.
Mesoscale Discussion 1932 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Areas affected...far northern California...along the Oregon Cascades and into the far southern Washington Cascades. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 171936Z - 172130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from northern California to the south Washington Cascades. DISCUSSION...Weak instability has started to develop across northern California and into southern Washington ahead of a strong mid-level trough. Expect instability to increase through the afternoon as surface heating continues, low-level moisture advects northward, and temperatures cool aloft. Ascent associated with the strong negatively tilted shortwave trough currently approaching the northern California coast has started to overspread northern California and southern Oregon where an increase in lightning activity is evident. In addition, some mini supercell structures are evident which is not surprising given the strong flow aloft (45 knots at 500mb and nearly 100 knots above 300mb per MFR and SLE 18Z RAOBs). Continued surface heating and steepening lapse rates/cooling aloft should lead to a thermodynamic profile supporting more robust storm/supercell development and the potential for some large hail. While stronger storms will be favored over the higher terrain of the Cascades, storm motion may bring some of these storms into the foothills or perhaps even the Willamette Valley later this afternoon/evening. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to address this threat. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR...EKA... LAT...LON 41832336 43132329 44532313 45362292 45792268 46232233 46492171 45992130 44562136 43432145 42372151 41862164 41342198 41222231 41192287 41832336 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across the Great Basin through the extended, with critical fire weather conditions possible. The driving factors for this regime will be a blocking pattern, where an upper-level ridge over the central US will support persistent hot/dry conditions across the Great Basin across the southern Rockies, into the Southern Plains. Given poor fuel moisture recovery beneath this ridge, especially across the Great Basin, any increase in wind speed (including terrain driven circulations) will result in at least elevated fire weather conditions. Late in the forecast period (Day 7/8), large-scale guidance suggests an increase in mid-level flow may result in surface wind speeds sufficient for critical fire weather conditions. However, uncertainty in the timing/magnitude of the large-scale pattern evolution precludes the ability to denote areas of concerns late next week. ..Marsh.. 08/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0632 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0632 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more