Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind/hail are possible across the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon to mid evening Tuesday. ...Northern/central High Plains... In the wake of extensive convective activity on D2, a remnant MCV is consistently progged to be over the Dakotas at 12Z Tuesday. This feature will probably drift east-southeast with a general thunder threat into the Mid-MO Valley. In its wake, the persistent mid-level ridge will likely become centered along the MT/Dakotas border area, emanating north from the stout anticyclone over NM. Convective signal along the surface lee trough appears sparse despite a conditionally favorable CAPE/shear parameter space for severe. Potential for very isolated late-afternoon thunderstorms remains apparent over the Black Hills, to widely scattered thunderstorms along parts of the Front Range. Given the more muted indications for peak-heating convection over the adjacent High Plains and after coordination with WFO GLD, have adjusted the eastern extent of the level 1-MRGL risk. Some severe potential should evolve in the lee of the northern Rockies in the central MT vicinity. Primary shortwave impulse embedded within the Pacific coast trough should accelerate inland on Tuesday as it progresses across WA to the northern Rockies along the international border. Attendant mid-level southwesterlies should strengthen downstream from ID into western/central MT, yielding increasing deep-layer speed shear by late afternoon into the evening. Along the western periphery of the northern High Plains buoyancy plume, a few updrafts with mid-level rotation may develop with a threat for both large hail and severe surface gusts. This warrants westward expansion of the level 1-MRGL risk. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0635 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0635 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more