Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the Great Basin and the eastern Sierra. Confidence in sustained 20+ mph winds remains too low to introduce critical probabilities at this time. However, drying fuels and occasional gusts may support a few hours of near to locally critical fire-weather concerns over parts of NV. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and corresponding stronger flow aloft will continue to impinge on the West Coast while an upper ridge remains in place over the central Rockies toward the southern Plains tomorrow (Monday). Modest isallobaric surface flow preceding the upper trough, along with boundary-layer mixing, should support dry and breezy conditions across portions of the Harney Basin and Great Basin areas by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been introduced to portions of southwestern into central Nevada, as well as southeastern Oregon and immediate surrounding areas. Over these locations, 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-20 percent RH for a few hours around afternoon peak heating, amid fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1943 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1943 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...southeast New York...New Jersey...eastern Pennsylvania...Maryland...and northern Virginia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181709Z - 181845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued by mid-afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop across the Appalachians from central Pennsylvania into southern New York as cold-air advection aloft overspread the region. Farther east, some inhibition remains across eastern Pennsylvania amid broken cloudcover. However, this stratus deck has started to erode and should allow for significant surface heating over the next 1 to 2 hours. Under the influence of weak height falls and cyclonic flow aloft, expect scattered thunderstorm development within the uncapped environment from eastern Pennsylvania to eastern Virginia. 20 to 25 knots of effective shear (per RAP forecast soundings) will support some multicell organization with a primary threat from downbursts. An additional round of storms is possible this afternoon/evening as storms which develop over the mountains move into the lower elevations with some congealing into one or more linear segments possible. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40547769 41317749 42137628 42417538 42127417 41867392 40997382 40427389 39877399 39617411 39367423 39217462 38947475 38707496 38437505 38177509 37837529 37577548 37227571 37127605 37247675 37577737 38117797 38647843 39487847 40547769 Read more

MD 1942 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1942 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181645Z - 181845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...If a MCS, currently moving out of southeast Nebraska can persist until mid-afternoon, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...An MCS which developed within a zone of isentropic ascent across northern Nebraska last night has persisted and now has a well-established cold-pool. Over the last hour, deeper cores and cooling cloud tops have been evident on satellite as this cluster of storms moves across southeast Nebraska. Despite all 12Z CAM guidance suggesting the demise of this cluster by mid-day, current radar/satellite trends would suggest it may persist for awhile. Strong inhibition remains ahead of this activity currently, but if the convection can maintain for another ~2 hours, it may be able to transition to surface based as additional heating erodes downstream inhibition. If this does occur, moderate instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 40+ knots of effective shear would support a bowing line segment with the potential for 75+ mph wind gusts. Convective trends will be monitored and if an organized bowing cluster of storms seems imminent, a severe thunderstorm watch will be issued. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39369813 39699832 39989783 39999670 39939616 39579566 37779467 37089470 37029528 37099630 37499705 38199747 39369813 Read more

WW 0634 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0634 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0634 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0634 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Lower 48, mainly on Monday afternoon into the early evening. A more concentrated threat for large hail is evident over a portion of eastern Colorado during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A nearly full-latitude mid/upper trough will remain anchored over the East, with a ridge emanating north from the southern High Plains, and a trough near the BC/WA coast. Several impulses, influenced by D1 convection, should progress within the W-shaped mid-level flow regime across the CONUS. ...Central/northern High Plains to the Interior West... A predominately meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve to mainly southwesterlies, with westerlies downstream as the mid-level ridge flattens/drifts east over the central High Plains and Dakotas. Extensive convective activity is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture from the Four Corners to MT, and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Within much of this regime, deep-layer shear should be relatively modest outside of western MT and eastern CO. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Isolated severe hail is also possible, mainly from the central High Plains to the eastern MT owing to larger buoyancy. Consensus of guidance suggests a few slow-moving supercells should develop near/east of the I-25 corridor from the Cheyenne Ridge to the Palmer Divide. With some mid-level flow enhancement atop weak low-level easterlies expected, this setup could yield a more concentrated threat for large hail. Relatively warm upper-level temperatures may temper hail magnitudes to the 1-2 inch range. Bulk of severe potential should diminish after dusk. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic to New England... While severe potential appears to be relatively less than on D1, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms focused along a reinforcing surface trough/cold front. Effective bulk shear will be modest, largely from 20-25 kts, and MLCAPE should hold from 500-1500 J/kg to the north of eastern NC. Sporadic strong gusts will be capable of producing occasional tree damage, peaking in the mid to late afternoon. ...North FL vicinity... Despite relatively warm mid/upper-level temperatures, a plume of larger buoyancy should develop ahead of the trailing portion of the coastal Atlantic cold front. Modest mid-level west-northwesterlies near and to the backside of the amplified upper trough should support loosely organized multicell clusters during the afternoon. Isolated strong to localized severe gusts are possible. ...LA vicinity... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along the northwest/southeast-oriented arc of the baroclinic zone across the Gulf Coast States. Remnants of elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in parts of AR to northern LA. Guidance mostly decays this activity as the downstream warm-moist sector maintains appreciable MLCIN until afternoon, but some suggest it may intensify towards the LA coast. There is also low-probability potential for storms to redevelop during the late afternoon to early evening along the baroclinic zone after differential heating is maximized. The western extent of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Lower 48, mainly on Monday afternoon into the early evening. A more concentrated threat for large hail is evident over a portion of eastern Colorado during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A nearly full-latitude mid/upper trough will remain anchored over the East, with a ridge emanating north from the southern High Plains, and a trough near the BC/WA coast. Several impulses, influenced by D1 convection, should progress within the W-shaped mid-level flow regime across the CONUS. ...Central/northern High Plains to the Interior West... A predominately meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve to mainly southwesterlies, with westerlies downstream as the mid-level ridge flattens/drifts east over the central High Plains and Dakotas. Extensive convective activity is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture from the Four Corners to MT, and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Within much of this regime, deep-layer shear should be relatively modest outside of western MT and eastern CO. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Isolated severe hail is also possible, mainly from the central High Plains to the eastern MT owing to larger buoyancy. Consensus of guidance suggests a few slow-moving supercells should develop near/east of the I-25 corridor from the Cheyenne Ridge to the Palmer Divide. With some mid-level flow enhancement atop weak low-level easterlies expected, this setup could yield a more concentrated threat for large hail. Relatively warm upper-level temperatures may temper hail magnitudes to the 1-2 inch range. Bulk of severe potential should diminish after dusk. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic to New England... While severe potential appears to be relatively less than on D1, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms focused along a reinforcing surface trough/cold front. Effective bulk shear will be modest, largely from 20-25 kts, and MLCAPE should hold from 500-1500 J/kg to the north of eastern NC. Sporadic strong gusts will be capable of producing occasional tree damage, peaking in the mid to late afternoon. ...North FL vicinity... Despite relatively warm mid/upper-level temperatures, a plume of larger buoyancy should develop ahead of the trailing portion of the coastal Atlantic cold front. Modest mid-level west-northwesterlies near and to the backside of the amplified upper trough should support loosely organized multicell clusters during the afternoon. Isolated strong to localized severe gusts are possible. ...LA vicinity... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along the northwest/southeast-oriented arc of the baroclinic zone across the Gulf Coast States. Remnants of elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in parts of AR to northern LA. Guidance mostly decays this activity as the downstream warm-moist sector maintains appreciable MLCIN until afternoon, but some suggest it may intensify towards the LA coast. There is also low-probability potential for storms to redevelop during the late afternoon to early evening along the baroclinic zone after differential heating is maximized. The western extent of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Lower 48, mainly on Monday afternoon into the early evening. A more concentrated threat for large hail is evident over a portion of eastern Colorado during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A nearly full-latitude mid/upper trough will remain anchored over the East, with a ridge emanating north from the southern High Plains, and a trough near the BC/WA coast. Several impulses, influenced by D1 convection, should progress within the W-shaped mid-level flow regime across the CONUS. ...Central/northern High Plains to the Interior West... A predominately meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve to mainly southwesterlies, with westerlies downstream as the mid-level ridge flattens/drifts east over the central High Plains and Dakotas. Extensive convective activity is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture from the Four Corners to MT, and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Within much of this regime, deep-layer shear should be relatively modest outside of western MT and eastern CO. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Isolated severe hail is also possible, mainly from the central High Plains to the eastern MT owing to larger buoyancy. Consensus of guidance suggests a few slow-moving supercells should develop near/east of the I-25 corridor from the Cheyenne Ridge to the Palmer Divide. With some mid-level flow enhancement atop weak low-level easterlies expected, this setup could yield a more concentrated threat for large hail. Relatively warm upper-level temperatures may temper hail magnitudes to the 1-2 inch range. Bulk of severe potential should diminish after dusk. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic to New England... While severe potential appears to be relatively less than on D1, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms focused along a reinforcing surface trough/cold front. Effective bulk shear will be modest, largely from 20-25 kts, and MLCAPE should hold from 500-1500 J/kg to the north of eastern NC. Sporadic strong gusts will be capable of producing occasional tree damage, peaking in the mid to late afternoon. ...North FL vicinity... Despite relatively warm mid/upper-level temperatures, a plume of larger buoyancy should develop ahead of the trailing portion of the coastal Atlantic cold front. Modest mid-level west-northwesterlies near and to the backside of the amplified upper trough should support loosely organized multicell clusters during the afternoon. Isolated strong to localized severe gusts are possible. ...LA vicinity... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along the northwest/southeast-oriented arc of the baroclinic zone across the Gulf Coast States. Remnants of elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in parts of AR to northern LA. Guidance mostly decays this activity as the downstream warm-moist sector maintains appreciable MLCIN until afternoon, but some suggest it may intensify towards the LA coast. There is also low-probability potential for storms to redevelop during the late afternoon to early evening along the baroclinic zone after differential heating is maximized. The western extent of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Lower 48, mainly on Monday afternoon into the early evening. A more concentrated threat for large hail is evident over a portion of eastern Colorado during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A nearly full-latitude mid/upper trough will remain anchored over the East, with a ridge emanating north from the southern High Plains, and a trough near the BC/WA coast. Several impulses, influenced by D1 convection, should progress within the W-shaped mid-level flow regime across the CONUS. ...Central/northern High Plains to the Interior West... A predominately meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve to mainly southwesterlies, with westerlies downstream as the mid-level ridge flattens/drifts east over the central High Plains and Dakotas. Extensive convective activity is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture from the Four Corners to MT, and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Within much of this regime, deep-layer shear should be relatively modest outside of western MT and eastern CO. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Isolated severe hail is also possible, mainly from the central High Plains to the eastern MT owing to larger buoyancy. Consensus of guidance suggests a few slow-moving supercells should develop near/east of the I-25 corridor from the Cheyenne Ridge to the Palmer Divide. With some mid-level flow enhancement atop weak low-level easterlies expected, this setup could yield a more concentrated threat for large hail. Relatively warm upper-level temperatures may temper hail magnitudes to the 1-2 inch range. Bulk of severe potential should diminish after dusk. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic to New England... While severe potential appears to be relatively less than on D1, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms focused along a reinforcing surface trough/cold front. Effective bulk shear will be modest, largely from 20-25 kts, and MLCAPE should hold from 500-1500 J/kg to the north of eastern NC. Sporadic strong gusts will be capable of producing occasional tree damage, peaking in the mid to late afternoon. ...North FL vicinity... Despite relatively warm mid/upper-level temperatures, a plume of larger buoyancy should develop ahead of the trailing portion of the coastal Atlantic cold front. Modest mid-level west-northwesterlies near and to the backside of the amplified upper trough should support loosely organized multicell clusters during the afternoon. Isolated strong to localized severe gusts are possible. ...LA vicinity... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along the northwest/southeast-oriented arc of the baroclinic zone across the Gulf Coast States. Remnants of elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in parts of AR to northern LA. Guidance mostly decays this activity as the downstream warm-moist sector maintains appreciable MLCIN until afternoon, but some suggest it may intensify towards the LA coast. There is also low-probability potential for storms to redevelop during the late afternoon to early evening along the baroclinic zone after differential heating is maximized. The western extent of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be possible across several areas of the Lower 48, mainly on Monday afternoon into the early evening. A more concentrated threat for large hail is evident over a portion of eastern Colorado during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A nearly full-latitude mid/upper trough will remain anchored over the East, with a ridge emanating north from the southern High Plains, and a trough near the BC/WA coast. Several impulses, influenced by D1 convection, should progress within the W-shaped mid-level flow regime across the CONUS. ...Central/northern High Plains to the Interior West... A predominately meridional flow regime over the Northwest should evolve to mainly southwesterlies, with westerlies downstream as the mid-level ridge flattens/drifts east over the central High Plains and Dakotas. Extensive convective activity is likely towards mid to late afternoon as storms develop off the higher terrain within a broad plume of adequate 700-mb moisture from the Four Corners to MT, and seasonably rich boundary-layer dew points across the northern/central High Plains. Within much of this regime, deep-layer shear should be relatively modest outside of western MT and eastern CO. This suggests loosely to semi-organized clusters should dominate with isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Isolated severe hail is also possible, mainly from the central High Plains to the eastern MT owing to larger buoyancy. Consensus of guidance suggests a few slow-moving supercells should develop near/east of the I-25 corridor from the Cheyenne Ridge to the Palmer Divide. With some mid-level flow enhancement atop weak low-level easterlies expected, this setup could yield a more concentrated threat for large hail. Relatively warm upper-level temperatures may temper hail magnitudes to the 1-2 inch range. Bulk of severe potential should diminish after dusk. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic to New England... While severe potential appears to be relatively less than on D1, embedded shortwave impulses and boundary-layer heating of a still richly moist air mass should support scattered to numerous thunderstorms focused along a reinforcing surface trough/cold front. Effective bulk shear will be modest, largely from 20-25 kts, and MLCAPE should hold from 500-1500 J/kg to the north of eastern NC. Sporadic strong gusts will be capable of producing occasional tree damage, peaking in the mid to late afternoon. ...North FL vicinity... Despite relatively warm mid/upper-level temperatures, a plume of larger buoyancy should develop ahead of the trailing portion of the coastal Atlantic cold front. Modest mid-level west-northwesterlies near and to the backside of the amplified upper trough should support loosely organized multicell clusters during the afternoon. Isolated strong to localized severe gusts are possible. ...LA vicinity... A conditionally adequate environment for a few marginally severe storms remains apparent along the northwest/southeast-oriented arc of the baroclinic zone across the Gulf Coast States. Remnants of elevated thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Monday in parts of AR to northern LA. Guidance mostly decays this activity as the downstream warm-moist sector maintains appreciable MLCIN until afternoon, but some suggest it may intensify towards the LA coast. There is also low-probability potential for storms to redevelop during the late afternoon to early evening along the baroclinic zone after differential heating is maximized. The western extent of moderate north-northwesterly mid-level flow would foster potential for an isolated severe wind/hail threat. ..Grams.. 08/18/2024 Read more