Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... Confidence has increased that a corridor of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of eastern ID into southwestern MT D2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft ahead of a weak upper trough embedded within southwesterly flow will support deeper mixing and wind gusts to 15-20 mph as it passes overhead through the afternoon. With RH below 20% and dry area fuels, fire-weather concerns are expected to be elevated. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... Confidence has increased that a corridor of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of eastern ID into southwestern MT D2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft ahead of a weak upper trough embedded within southwesterly flow will support deeper mixing and wind gusts to 15-20 mph as it passes overhead through the afternoon. With RH below 20% and dry area fuels, fire-weather concerns are expected to be elevated. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... Confidence has increased that a corridor of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of eastern ID into southwestern MT D2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft ahead of a weak upper trough embedded within southwesterly flow will support deeper mixing and wind gusts to 15-20 mph as it passes overhead through the afternoon. With RH below 20% and dry area fuels, fire-weather concerns are expected to be elevated. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...17z Update... No changes were made to the current outlook. Dry and breezy conditions may support elevated fire-weather potential from the eastern Sierra and across parts of the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms may also support some risk for lightning over parts of ID and the northern Rockies. However, confidence in the coverage of dry storms and overlap with receptive fuels is too low for IsoDryT probabilities. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Interior West as a mid-level trough meanders over the West Coast and an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. today. Boundary-layer mixing to the lee of the Sierra will promote windy conditions amid 10-20 percent RH by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained across portions of the Harney Basin in southeast Oregon and adjacent areas, as well as southwest into central Nevada, where the aforementioned dry and windy conditions should persist for several hours atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...17z Update... No changes were made to the current outlook. Dry and breezy conditions may support elevated fire-weather potential from the eastern Sierra and across parts of the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms may also support some risk for lightning over parts of ID and the northern Rockies. However, confidence in the coverage of dry storms and overlap with receptive fuels is too low for IsoDryT probabilities. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Interior West as a mid-level trough meanders over the West Coast and an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. today. Boundary-layer mixing to the lee of the Sierra will promote windy conditions amid 10-20 percent RH by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained across portions of the Harney Basin in southeast Oregon and adjacent areas, as well as southwest into central Nevada, where the aforementioned dry and windy conditions should persist for several hours atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...17z Update... No changes were made to the current outlook. Dry and breezy conditions may support elevated fire-weather potential from the eastern Sierra and across parts of the Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms may also support some risk for lightning over parts of ID and the northern Rockies. However, confidence in the coverage of dry storms and overlap with receptive fuels is too low for IsoDryT probabilities. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Interior West as a mid-level trough meanders over the West Coast and an upper ridge persists over the central U.S. today. Boundary-layer mixing to the lee of the Sierra will promote windy conditions amid 10-20 percent RH by afternoon. Elevated highlights have been maintained across portions of the Harney Basin in southeast Oregon and adjacent areas, as well as southwest into central Nevada, where the aforementioned dry and windy conditions should persist for several hours atop fuels receptive to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more