Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI...THEN EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of severe thunderstorms with strong/damaging winds are possible today along an axis from eastern Kansas into Arkansas/Mississippi, then extending across the southeast states into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region. ...Eastern States... A broad upper trough persists over the eastern US today, with the main baroclinic zone extending from eastern NY/PA southward into the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas. Pockets of strong heating and a very moist surface air mass will result in widespread moderate CAPE values ahead of the front this afternoon, where scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Cyclonic flow aloft around the upper trough will be sufficient to help organize storms into multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. This activity will slowly move eastward through the early evening with a continued severe threat. ...Southern States... Clear skies are present today across the southern tier of states, with dewpoints in the mid 70s yielding afternoon CAPE of 2500+ J/kg. Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop by mid-late afternoon along the western extent of the aforementioned baroclinic zone that will stretch from central GA/AL/MS then northwestward across AR. Moderately strong mid-level winds, and considerable dry air aloft will help to promote downburst winds in the strongest cores throughout this corridor. ...Eastern KS... A nocturnal MCS persists this morning over southeast NE. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests this cluster of storms diminishes, however given the mesoscale organization of the MCS, it could persist through the morning diurnal min. If that scenario occurs, conditions favor a potentially damaging wind event across parts of eastern KS through the afternoon and evening. ...UT/ID/MT... Several weak mid-level shortwave troughs are evident this morning across the northern Great Basin. These features and associated pockets of mid-level moisture will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorm development from southern UT northward into the mountains of western MT. Favorably strong southerly winds aloft will support a risk of gusty/damaging wind in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/18/2024 Read more

MD 1941 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 633... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NE...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1941 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Areas affected...Central/Southeast NE...North-Central/Northeast KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633... Valid 181251Z - 181445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for large hail and strong gusts continues across central Nebraska. This threat may continue into southeast Nebraska and north-central/northeast Kansas and downstream watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Despite becoming displaced further east of the primary low-level jet axis, the cluster (which now consists of two primary supercells) across central NE has persisted and perhaps even strengthened. This likely results from a combination of mature storm organization, increasing large-scale ascent, and continued mid-level warm-air advection. Current storm motion of the two supercells is southeasterly at 30 to 35 kt, which brings them to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633 at around 1430Z. However, there is some chance these storms begin progressing faster, as the system becoming increasingly linear. This cluster is expected to continue southeastward along the northern gradient of the corridor of buoyancy extending from central KS into western SD. Low-level stability may persist ahead of this cluster for at least the next several hours, but the trends over the past hour suggest this cluster is likely mature enough to maintain its strength. As such, large hail and strong gusts remain possible. Given the persisting low-level stability, the longevity is uncertain, but trends suggest a downstream watch may be needed into southeast NE and adjacent north-central/northeast KS. ..Mosier/Smith.. 08/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 39559851 41260017 42360019 42649952 42519850 41229650 39669621 39559851 Read more

WW 0633 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LBF TO 15 E BUB TO 20 WSW OFK TO 5 ENE OFK. ..BENTLEY..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-011-041-077-093-115-121-125-139-141-143-163-175-183- 181440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOONE CUSTER GREELEY HOWARD LOUP MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0633 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LBF TO 15 E BUB TO 20 WSW OFK TO 5 ENE OFK. ..BENTLEY..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-011-041-077-093-115-121-125-139-141-143-163-175-183- 181440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOONE CUSTER GREELEY HOWARD LOUP MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0633 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE LBF TO 15 E BUB TO 20 WSW OFK TO 5 ENE OFK. ..BENTLEY..08/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...FSD...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 633 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-011-041-077-093-115-121-125-139-141-143-163-175-183- 181440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOONE CUSTER GREELEY HOWARD LOUP MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 633 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 180935Z - 181500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 633 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northeast Nebraska Southern South Dakota * Effective this Sunday morning from 435 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered elevated supercells are forecast to continue southeast into the Watch area this morning. Large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the stronger storms as this activity moves southeast along an instability gradient in advance of a mid-level disturbance. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast of Ainsworth NE to 35 miles south southeast of Burwell NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 32030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR KANSAS INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible from northern Kansas to the western part of the Ozark Plateau, and in a separate area from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Deep South this afternoon to early evening. ...Rockies/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a short-wave trough cresting the Rockies mid-level ridge. This feature is forecast to move southeast with an enhanced belt of 500-mb flow (40-50 kt) moving into the Ozarks late. The 00z MPAS-HT-NSSL model seemed to reasonably depict elevated convection and a small severe cluster this morning over SD and northern NE. Other model guidance varies considerably on the handling of this early day storm activity. A risk for large hail will continue across east-central NE through the late morning in association with WAA-related storms favoring the eastern gradient of moisture/instability where isentropic lift will be maximized. Based on several factors 1) the aforementioned MPAS guidance, 2) enhanced mid to upper-level northwesterly flow per OAX, TOP, and SGF 12 UTC raobs, and a reservoir of higher theta-e across northern OK into KS, it seems possible a forward-propagating cluster/MCS may evolve this afternoon from KS into the western Ozarks. Have increased severe probabilities to account for this forecast evolution. ...Middle Atlantic to Deep South... Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast in that a Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will shift east and reach the spine of the Appalachians by early evening. Modest 500mb flow should extend within the base of the trough into the Mid-Atlantic states where shear profiles will be most supportive of organized storm structures (including multicells and transient supercells). Damaging gusts (50-65 mph) will likely be the primary risk, but some risk for hail and perhaps a brief tornado can be expected. The trailing portion of the front across the Deep South will not be particularly convergent as it surges into GA-AL-MS. However, a seasonably moist airmass (15-16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios) sampled by the 12 UTC Jackson, MS east to the coastal Carolinas raob sites, will undergo strong heating through mid afternoon. Several clusters of strong to severe/damaging thunderstorm clusters are forecast to evolve by mid to late afternoon and push towards the coastal areas by early evening. ...Interior West... Scattered to numerous diurnal thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the western/northern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over northeast NM. An ongoing thunderstorm cluster over central AZ will continue to move northward through the midday. This convection appears to be partly influenced by a weak disturbance of convective origin and is partly evident some augmenting of mid-level flow in the KIWA (Phoenix WSR-88D) VAD data. As a result, greater storm coverage will likely be associated with this feature as it moves into a destabilizing airmass across southern UT by early to mid afternoon. Severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this diurnally enhanced activity from the UT/AZ border northward into MT. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR KANSAS INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible from northern Kansas to the western part of the Ozark Plateau, and in a separate area from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Deep South this afternoon to early evening. ...Rockies/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a short-wave trough cresting the Rockies mid-level ridge. This feature is forecast to move southeast with an enhanced belt of 500-mb flow (40-50 kt) moving into the Ozarks late. The 00z MPAS-HT-NSSL model seemed to reasonably depict elevated convection and a small severe cluster this morning over SD and northern NE. Other model guidance varies considerably on the handling of this early day storm activity. A risk for large hail will continue across east-central NE through the late morning in association with WAA-related storms favoring the eastern gradient of moisture/instability where isentropic lift will be maximized. Based on several factors 1) the aforementioned MPAS guidance, 2) enhanced mid to upper-level northwesterly flow per OAX, TOP, and SGF 12 UTC raobs, and a reservoir of higher theta-e across northern OK into KS, it seems possible a forward-propagating cluster/MCS may evolve this afternoon from KS into the western Ozarks. Have increased severe probabilities to account for this forecast evolution. ...Middle Atlantic to Deep South... Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast in that a Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will shift east and reach the spine of the Appalachians by early evening. Modest 500mb flow should extend within the base of the trough into the Mid-Atlantic states where shear profiles will be most supportive of organized storm structures (including multicells and transient supercells). Damaging gusts (50-65 mph) will likely be the primary risk, but some risk for hail and perhaps a brief tornado can be expected. The trailing portion of the front across the Deep South will not be particularly convergent as it surges into GA-AL-MS. However, a seasonably moist airmass (15-16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios) sampled by the 12 UTC Jackson, MS east to the coastal Carolinas raob sites, will undergo strong heating through mid afternoon. Several clusters of strong to severe/damaging thunderstorm clusters are forecast to evolve by mid to late afternoon and push towards the coastal areas by early evening. ...Interior West... Scattered to numerous diurnal thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the western/northern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over northeast NM. An ongoing thunderstorm cluster over central AZ will continue to move northward through the midday. This convection appears to be partly influenced by a weak disturbance of convective origin and is partly evident some augmenting of mid-level flow in the KIWA (Phoenix WSR-88D) VAD data. As a result, greater storm coverage will likely be associated with this feature as it moves into a destabilizing airmass across southern UT by early to mid afternoon. Severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this diurnally enhanced activity from the UT/AZ border northward into MT. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR KANSAS INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe gusts are possible from northern Kansas to the western part of the Ozark Plateau, and in a separate area from the Mid-Atlantic States to the Deep South this afternoon to early evening. ...Rockies/Central Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a short-wave trough cresting the Rockies mid-level ridge. This feature is forecast to move southeast with an enhanced belt of 500-mb flow (40-50 kt) moving into the Ozarks late. The 00z MPAS-HT-NSSL model seemed to reasonably depict elevated convection and a small severe cluster this morning over SD and northern NE. Other model guidance varies considerably on the handling of this early day storm activity. A risk for large hail will continue across east-central NE through the late morning in association with WAA-related storms favoring the eastern gradient of moisture/instability where isentropic lift will be maximized. Based on several factors 1) the aforementioned MPAS guidance, 2) enhanced mid to upper-level northwesterly flow per OAX, TOP, and SGF 12 UTC raobs, and a reservoir of higher theta-e across northern OK into KS, it seems possible a forward-propagating cluster/MCS may evolve this afternoon from KS into the western Ozarks. Have increased severe probabilities to account for this forecast evolution. ...Middle Atlantic to Deep South... Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast in that a Great Lakes/OH Valley upper trough will shift east and reach the spine of the Appalachians by early evening. Modest 500mb flow should extend within the base of the trough into the Mid-Atlantic states where shear profiles will be most supportive of organized storm structures (including multicells and transient supercells). Damaging gusts (50-65 mph) will likely be the primary risk, but some risk for hail and perhaps a brief tornado can be expected. The trailing portion of the front across the Deep South will not be particularly convergent as it surges into GA-AL-MS. However, a seasonably moist airmass (15-16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios) sampled by the 12 UTC Jackson, MS east to the coastal Carolinas raob sites, will undergo strong heating through mid afternoon. Several clusters of strong to severe/damaging thunderstorm clusters are forecast to evolve by mid to late afternoon and push towards the coastal areas by early evening. ...Interior West... Scattered to numerous diurnal thunderstorms are forecast to develop on the western/northern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over northeast NM. An ongoing thunderstorm cluster over central AZ will continue to move northward through the midday. This convection appears to be partly influenced by a weak disturbance of convective origin and is partly evident some augmenting of mid-level flow in the KIWA (Phoenix WSR-88D) VAD data. As a result, greater storm coverage will likely be associated with this feature as it moves into a destabilizing airmass across southern UT by early to mid afternoon. Severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with this diurnally enhanced activity from the UT/AZ border northward into MT. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/18/2024 Read more